Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues AFL Round 13 Tips - Would you trust Carlton?

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Wed 03 Jun 2026 10:13

Jeremy Darke 3 hours ago

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Carlton favoured to cover -30.5 and continue winning streak.
Essendon on five-game losing run, averaging 101.8 points conceded.
Sam Walsh tipped for another 30+ disposal performance.
The game will be played at MCG on Sunday, 7th June, with the bounce at 7:20 PM (AEST)

Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues AFL Round 13 Tips

Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues, Round 13 2026 - Expert Prediction

Carlton are the play despite the huge line, with the Blues tipped to continue their resurgence and hand Essendon another heavy defeat on Sunday night at the MCG.

Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues, Round 13 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues Team List & News
Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues AFL 2026 Round 13 FAQ’s

The market has Carlton laying 31.5 points which is always a dangerous number in AFL, but it is difficult to make a strong case for the Bombers based on anything we have seen over the last month. Essendon have lost five straight matches and have been beaten by an average of 33.8 points across that stretch.

Carlton, meanwhile, finally look like they have found some belief. The Blues have won three straight games, including an emotional four-point victory over Geelong last week, and their midfield group is beginning to control games again. Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh have driven the turnaround, while the younger players have brought genuine energy around the contest.

The other angle I like is the Over 174.5 points. Essendon are conceding 101.8 points per game across their last five matches and their defensive structure continues to leak scoring opportunities. Carlton have scored 88, 92 and 84 points in their three-game winning streak and should create plenty of chances against the league's worst defence.

Essendon should regain a few experienced names this week, but the injury list remains extensive and the Bombers simply have not shown they can compete with quality opposition for four quarters.

Essendon have lost five straight games by an average margin of 33.8 points.
Carlton have won three consecutive matches entering Round 13.
Essendon are conceding 107.58 points per game in 2026.
Sam Walsh has had 28+ disposals in 5 of his last 6 games against Essendon

True Footy's Round 13 Margin Predictions

Head to Head Stats

Carlton have won three of the last four meetings between these clubs, including victories by 34, 8 and 26 points across the last two seasons.

The Blues completed the season sweep in 2025, winning by eight points in Round 13 before a comfortable 34-point victory later in the year. Essendon's only win in the last four meetings came back in 2023 when they produced a 34-point upset.

Essendon Bombers Form Analysis

Things continue to get worse for Essendon.

The Bombers enter Round 13 with a 1-11 record and have lost five consecutive matches. They have averaged just 68 points per game across that stretch while conceding more than 100 points per match.

Their latest defeat came against West Coast where they were comprehensively beaten by 30 points despite winning clearances and stoppages. The Bombers continue to struggle defensively and rank among the poorest teams in the competition for points conceded.

The return of several senior players will help, but confidence remains extremely low.

Carlton Blues Form Analysis

Carlton suddenly look like a completely different side.

After spending most of the first half of the season losing close games, the Blues have now won three straight matches and are beginning to play with far greater confidence around the ball.

The win over Geelong was their best result of the season. Patrick Cripps kicked the match-winner, Sam Walsh was outstanding again and Carlton showed resilience that had been missing earlier in the year.

The midfield remains the biggest advantage in this matchup and should give the Blues first use throughout most of the night.

Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues Team List & News

Essendon Bombers Team News

Essendon should welcome back Sam Durham from concussion while Mason Redman and Jordan Ridley are also expected to return.

The injury list remains lengthy however, with Archer May suffering a shoulder injury against West Coast and Lewis Hayes suffering another cruel ACL setback.

Carlton Blues Team News

Carlton heads into Round 13 with minimal concerns following last week's win over Geelong.

Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues AFL 2026 Round 13 FAQ’s

How to watch Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues AFL 2026 Round 13?

You can watch the Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues AFL 2026 Round 13 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.