Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints AFL Round 13 Tips - Blowout on the Cards

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Wed 03 Jun 2026 09:40

Ryan Tucker 2 hours ago

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The game will be played at SCG on Sunday, 7th June, with the bounce at 3:15 PM (AEST)
Expert model tips Sydney Swans to win by 40+ points vs St Kilda Saints.
Isaac Heeney expected to shine: 2+ goals & 25+ disposals at $2.05.
St Kilda missing key player Flanders and struggling in recent form.

Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints

Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints, Round 13 2026 - Expert Prediction

Sydney to win by 40+, Swans first scoring play and Isaac Heeney 2+ goals and 25+ Disposals at $2.05 are the three plays for Sunday afternoon at the SCG.

Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints, Round 13 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Sydney Swans Form Analysis
St Kilda Saints Form Analysis
Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints Team List & News
Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2026 Round 13 FAQ’s

The model has Sydney by 43 pts against a market line of -30.0, a 14.4% edge and a flagged value bet. That gap is significant. The Swans' overall rating of +20.5 is the best in the competition and their attack rating of +16.2 is in a class of its own. They are averaging 113.4 pts over their last five games, generating 63.0 Inside 50s per game and converting at 47.8%. St Kilda were held scoreless for an entire half against Hawthorn last week and are 1-6 against teams sitting above them this season. The 40+ win is where the model points and the line agrees.

St Kilda have lost Sam Flanders for the season with an Achilles injury and arrive at the SCG having been belted by 52 pts in their last outing. Their attack is averaging 83.6 pts over the last five games and they generate just 27.4 Shots per game against Sydney's scoring allowed of 25.4. The Saints' clearance advantage of +4.4 on the season is the one area they can compete but Sydney win Inside 50s by +10.2 in this matchup and their Intercepts advantage of +8.4 ensures the turnover game runs heavily against the visitors.

Heeney at $2.05 for 2+ goals and 25+ Disposals is built on what he just did against Richmond - 32 Disposals, five clearances and five goals in his best game of the season. Against a Saints side that was goalless for a half last week, he will have the freedom to push forward with impact all day.

Take Sydney to win by 40+, Swans Goal first scoring play and Isaac Heeney 2+ goals and 25+ Disposals at $2.05.

The model has Sydney by 43 pts against a market line of -30.0 with a 14.4% edge, making the 40+ win the direct play rather than the line.
St Kilda were held scoreless for an entire half against Hawthorn last week and are 1-6 against sides currently above them, 5-7 overall and missing Sam Flanders for the season with an Achilles injury.
Sydney generate 63.0 Inside 50s per game and win that count by +10.2 against St Kilda, with an Intercepts advantage of +8.4 that turns Saints' ball movement into a scoring pipeline for the Swans.
Isaac Heeney had 32 Disposals, five clearances and five goals against Richmond last week, the 2+ goals and 25+ Disposals multi at $2.05 is backed by both recent form and the matchup.

Head to Head Stats

Sydney hold a 6-4 record in the last 10 meetings and a dominant 21-11 advantage at the SCG. The last three clashes have been tight with 5 pts, 2 pts and 14 pts marings, but the Swans have won six of the last ten. The most recent result was a Sydney 5 pt win in Round 18 2025.

Sydney Swans Form Analysis

Sydney bounced back from their Geelong loss with a 114 pt demolition of Richmond at the SCG, with Charlie Curnow booting eight goals and Isaac Heeney adding five alongside 32 Disposals. The Swans generated 73 Inside 50s and their forward line with Curnow, McDonald, Amartey, McLean, was simply too deep and too fast for a depleted Tigers defence. Justin McInerney rolled an ankle in the third term and is under an injury cloud this week alongside Lewis Melican who also pulled up sore.

St Kilda Saints Form Analysis

St Kilda were embarrassed in the first half against Hawthorn, failing to register a goal until the third quarter in their worst half since 1987. The 52 pt loss was compounded by an Achilles injury to Sam Flanders, who is facing an extended stint on the sidelines. Jack Gunston carved them up with five goals and Blake Hardwick added four, exposing a Saints backline that simply had no answers when Hawthorn's tall forward line got rolling. Despite a spirited six-goal third quarter once Jack Silvagni was swung forward, the damage was already done.

Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints Team List & News

Sydney Swans Team News: Justin McInerney (ankle) and Lewis Melican (hamstring) both face fitness tests after failing to finish the Richmond game. Brodie Grundy was rested last week and is expected to return.

St Kilda Saints Team News: Sam Flanders is out for an extended period with a right Achilles injury suffered against Hawthorn. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is expected to return from injury this week.

Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2026 Round 13 FAQ’s

How to watch Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2026 Round 13?

You can watch the Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2026 Round 13 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2026 Round 13?

To buy tickets to the Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2026 Round 13 game check the AFL website or the official Sydney Swans site.

Verdict

Sydney Swans v St Kilda Saints

Take Sydney to win by 40+, Swans Goal first scoring play and Isaac Heeney 2+ goals and 25+ Disposals at $2.05.

Sydney 40+

Winning Margin

$2.35 - 2 Units

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