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Joao Fonseca vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Fonseca to make first Masters 1000 quarter-final
João Fonseca is set to face Matteo Berrettini in the Monte Carlo Masters R16, aiming for his first Masters 1000 quarter-final. After recovering from a back injury, Fonseca is in good form, having bested Gabriel Diallo and Arthur Rinderknech. He's seen as a potential favorite despite Berrettini's recent performance where he defeated Daniil Medvedev with an extraordinary double bagel. Fonseca's steady progress suggests he might edge ahead, though Berrettini's exceptional win could indicate a challenging encounter.
- Joao Fonseca vs Matteo Berrettini predictions for Thursday's ATP Monte Carlo R1
- Fonseca in impressive form, tipped to reach first Masters 1000 quarter-final
- Berrettini having a good tournament, but is 3-9 in his last 12 matches vs top 40 players
- The match is scheduled to start at 7.00pm AEDT on Thursday April 9
Expired
Joao Fonseca (Photo by Getty Images)
Joao Fonseca vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Teenage sensation Joao Fonseca targets his maiden Masters 1000 quarter-final when he comes up against a resurgent Matteo Berrettini in Monte Carlo on Thursday.
After recovering from a back injury that derailed his start to the season, Fonseca is making up for lost ground and looks set for a big clay swing if his start to Monte Carlo is any indication. After pushing the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz during last month's Sunshine Double, Fonseca has toppled Gabriel Diallo and Arthur Rinderknech to advance into the R16.
It's a pretty good draw for Fonseca to advance even further - you'd take Berrettini as your R16 opponent pre-tournament and the seed in this section - Alexander Zverev - remains in questionable form.
But, one match at a time and Berrettini certainly can't be discounted after his shock 6-0 6-0 demolition of Daniil Medvedev in just 49 minutes. It was the first time Medvedev has ever suffered the dreaded double bagel in his professional career, but I also think it was more a case of the Russian being absolutely terrible than Berrettini playing lights out tennis.
I think the market has reacted to that performance and inflated Berrettini's chances - I think Fonseca should be a slightly bigger favourite. I'll take the Brazilian H2H, but I do think this will be a competitive match, so will also have a smaller stake on Fonseca with Over 21.5 total games.
Fonseca vs Berrettini Stats & Trends
- Fonseca has won six of his last eight matches (losses vs Sinner & Alcaraz)
- Berrettini is 0-2 in Monte Carlo R16 matches
- Berrettini has lost nine of his last 12 matches vs top 40 opponents
- Six of Fonseca's last nine matches have seen Over 21.5 games
Fonseca vs Berrettini Head To Head
Berrettini leads 1-0, winning their Davis Cup clash in 2024 in straight sets.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Surface | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Matteo Berrettini | ITA vs BRA Group A RR | Round Robin | Indoor Hard | 6–1, 7–6(5) |
Joao Fonseca Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 7-5
- ATP Monte Carlo Record: 2-0
- Current Ranking: No. 40
- Career-High Ranking: No. 24 (Nov 2025)
After capturing the ATP 500 title in Basel late last season, there was a clear sense that Fonseca was on track to crack the world’s top 20 early in 2026.
That momentum stalled due to a back injury, which limited his impact across the Australian summer and the Golden Swing.
Signs now point to a full recovery. Fonseca produced high-quality tennis during the Sunshine Double, reaching the fourth round at Indian Wells - where he pushed Jannik Sinner to consecutive tiebreaks - before falling to Carlos Alcaraz in the second round of Miami.
On debut in Monte Carlo, the 19-year-old made an immediate statement, dispatching Gabriel Diallo 6–2, 6–3 in his opening match. Fonseca was made to work harder in his second round, needing three sets to subdue the big-serving Arthur Rinderknech 7-5 4-6 6-3.
Matteo Berrettini Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 8-6
- ATP Monte Carlo Record: 6-4
- Current Ranking: No. 90
- Career-High Ranking: No. 6 (2022)
Berrettini's career has been repeatedly hindered by injuries since he cracked the top 10 and made the Wimbledon final a few years ago.
The Italian was in danger of crashing out the world's top 100 and needed a wildcard to compete in Monte Carlo this week - but fortunately, he's defended his R16 points from last year and will remain around his current ranking, even with a defeat here.
There hasn't been much for Berrettini to cheer about in 2026 - he was last seen losing in the first round of Marrakech to Ignacio Buse, but he's put together a literally perfect run to the Monte Carlo R16.
Indeed, Berrettini has gone 16-0 in games across his opening two rounds, benefitting from a Roberto Bautista Agut retirement while leading 4-0 before an extraordinary 6-0 6-0 crushing of Daniil Medvedev in just 49 minutes.
"I think it was one of the best performances of my life," Berrettini said. "I think I missed three shots in the entire match and it is not easy against a tricky player like Daniil. I think the game plan was perfect and my weapons were working."
Fonseca vs Berrettini Live Stream
Watch and bet on Joao Fonseca vs Matteo Berrettini live tennis from Monte Carlo.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Monte Carlo with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.
Verdict
Fonseca is tipped to advance past Berrettini into a first Masters 1000 quarter-final.
Fonseca Win
H2H
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Fonseca & Over 21.5
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