Joao Fonseca vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Fonseca to make first Masters 1000 quarter-final

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 09 Apr 2026 00:52

Andrew Hendrie 09 Apr 2026

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Joao Fonseca vs Matteo Berrettini predictions for Thursday's ATP Monte Carlo R1
Fonseca in impressive form, tipped to reach first Masters 1000 quarter-final
Berrettini having a good tournament, but is 3-9 in his last 12 matches vs top 40 players
The match is scheduled to start at 7.00pm AEDT on Thursday April 9

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Joao Fonseca (Photo by Getty Images)

Joao Fonseca vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Teenage sensation Joao Fonseca targets his maiden Masters 1000 quarter-final when he comes up against a resurgent Matteo Berrettini in Monte Carlo on Thursday.

Joao Fonseca vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Fonseca vs Berrettini Stats & Trends
Fonseca vs Berrettini Head To Head
Joao Fonseca Form Analysis
Matteo Berrettini Form Analysis
Fonseca vs Berrettini Live Stream

After recovering from a back injury that derailed his start to the season, Fonseca is making up for lost ground and looks set for a big clay swing if his start to Monte Carlo is any indication. After pushing the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz during last month's Sunshine Double, Fonseca has toppled Gabriel Diallo and Arthur Rinderknech to advance into the R16.

It's a pretty good draw for Fonseca to advance even further - you'd take Berrettini as your R16 opponent pre-tournament and the seed in this section - Alexander Zverev - remains in questionable form.

But, one match at a time and Berrettini certainly can't be discounted after his shock 6-0 6-0 demolition of Daniil Medvedev in just 49 minutes. It was the first time Medvedev has ever suffered the dreaded double bagel in his professional career, but I also think it was more a case of the Russian being absolutely terrible than Berrettini playing lights out tennis.

I think the market has reacted to that performance and inflated Berrettini's chances - I think Fonseca should be a slightly bigger favourite. I'll take the Brazilian H2H, but I do think this will be a competitive match, so will also have a smaller stake on Fonseca with Over 21.5 total games.

Fonseca vs Berrettini Stats & Trends

Fonseca has won six of his last eight matches (losses vs Sinner & Alcaraz)
Berrettini is 0-2 in Monte Carlo R16 matches
Berrettini has lost nine of his last 12 matches vs top 40 opponents
Six of Fonseca's last nine matches have seen Over 21.5 games

Fonseca vs Berrettini Head To Head

Berrettini leads 1-0, winning their Davis Cup clash in 2024 in straight sets.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Surface	Score
2024	Matteo Berrettini	ITA vs BRA Group A RR	Round Robin	Indoor Hard	6–1, 7–6(5)

Joao Fonseca Form Analysis

2026 Record: 7-5
ATP Monte Carlo Record: 2-0
Current Ranking: No. 40
Career-High Ranking: No. 24 (Nov 2025)

After capturing the ATP 500 title in Basel late last season, there was a clear sense that Fonseca was on track to crack the world’s top 20 early in 2026.

That momentum stalled due to a back injury, which limited his impact across the Australian summer and the Golden Swing.

Signs now point to a full recovery. Fonseca produced high-quality tennis during the Sunshine Double, reaching the fourth round at Indian Wells - where he pushed Jannik Sinner to consecutive tiebreaks - before falling to Carlos Alcaraz in the second round of Miami.

On debut in Monte Carlo, the 19-year-old made an immediate statement, dispatching Gabriel Diallo 6–2, 6–3 in his opening match. Fonseca was made to work harder in his second round, needing three sets to subdue the big-serving Arthur Rinderknech 7-5 4-6 6-3.

Matteo Berrettini Form Analysis

2026 Record: 8-6
ATP Monte Carlo Record: 6-4
Current Ranking: No. 90
Career-High Ranking: No. 6 (2022)

Berrettini's career has been repeatedly hindered by injuries since he cracked the top 10 and made the Wimbledon final a few years ago.

The Italian was in danger of crashing out the world's top 100 and needed a wildcard to compete in Monte Carlo this week - but fortunately, he's defended his R16 points from last year and will remain around his current ranking, even with a defeat here.

There hasn't been much for Berrettini to cheer about in 2026 - he was last seen losing in the first round of Marrakech to Ignacio Buse, but he's put together a literally perfect run to the Monte Carlo R16.

Indeed, Berrettini has gone 16-0 in games across his opening two rounds, benefitting from a Roberto Bautista Agut retirement while leading 4-0 before an extraordinary 6-0 6-0 crushing of Daniil Medvedev in just 49 minutes.

"I think it was one of the best performances of my life," Berrettini said. "I think I missed three shots in the entire match and it is not easy against a tricky player like Daniil. I think the game plan was perfect and my weapons were working."