2026 Monte Carlo Masters

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Alcaraz to cover & make semis

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri 10 Apr 2026 01:19

Andrew Hendrie 10 Apr 2026

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik predictions for Friday's ATP Monte Carlo quarter-final
Alcaraz on a 15-match clay winning streak & has 19-2 record in clay quarter-finals
Bublik has improved on clay, but is 1-8 vs the world's top two players
The match is scheduled to start around 11.00pm AEDT on Friday April 10

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Carlos Alcaraz (Photo by Getty Images)

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Bublik square off for the first time with a spot in the Monte Carlo Masters semi-finals on the line on Friday.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Alcaraz vs Bublik Stats & Trends
Alcaraz vs Bublik Head To Head
Carlos Alcaraz Form Analysis
Alexander Bublik Form Analysis
Alcaraz vs Bublik Live Stream

This will be a fun match and the highlight reel makers will be forced into overtime. However, while Bublik has improved his clay court game out of sight, I can't see him consistency troubling Alcaraz here.

The Spaniard has plenty to play for over the coming days - he is of course the defending Monte Carlo champion, but he's also trying to hold off Jannik Sinner from overtaking him for the No. 1 ranking. Alcaraz dropped a set against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in his previous round, but I don't think that's such a bad thing - it will mean he's fully focused and locked in for this challenge.

Bublik will hit some incredible shots and winners, but I don't see him being able to hang with Alcaraz for long periods of time on this surface. We saw Bublik make a great run to the French Open quarter-finals last year before being crushed 6-1 6-1 6-1 by Sinner. Something similar could play out here, so backing Alcaraz to cover the -5.5 games line as the best bet.

Alcaraz vs Bublik Stats & Trends

Alcaraz has won his last 15 clay matches
Alcaraz is 19-2 in clay quarter-finals
Alcaraz has won 25 of his last 28 matches vs top 10 opponents
Bublik is 1-8 vs top two players

Alcaraz vs Bublik Head To Head

This will be the first career meeting between the pair.

Carlos Alcaraz Form Analysis

2026 Record: 19-2
ATP Monte Carlo Record: 7-1
Current Ranking: No. 1
Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2022)

Alcaraz launched the year in perfect fashion, completing a historic Career Grand Slam at the Australian Open before collecting the Doha title a few weeks later.

However, Alcaraz's unbeaten start to the season was snapped when he suffered a surprise defeat to Daniil Medvedev in the Indian Wells semi-finals.

It ended up being a disappointing Sunshine Double for Alcaraz after he crashed out early in Miami to Sebastian Korda.

The Spaniard now turns his attention to clay and his Monte Carlo title defence. Alcaraz was dominant in a 6-1 6-3 beatdown of Sebastian Baez in his opening round, but needed to dig deep in order to subdue Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the R16.

Alcaraz committed a whopping 23 unforced errors in the second set before regrouping in the decider to close out a 6-1 4-6 6-3 victory.

“I was playing really well in the first set. I was feeling the ball 10/10,” Alcaraz said.

“Then I started pretty well in the second set as well and had a chance to break his serve in the second game, but I didn’t take it. When you don’t take the opportunities at this level, you have to run back. He played more aggressive after that, but I would say it was a great fight in the end.”

Alexander Bublik Form Analysis

2026 Record: 15-6
ATP Monte Carlo Record: 3-4
Current Ranking: No. 11
Career-High Ranking: No. 10 (Jan 2026)

It was a great start to the season for Bublik - he cracked the top 10 by winning the title in Hong Kong and backed it up with a fourth round showing at the Australian Open and semi-final finish in Rotterdam.

However, Bublik could only win one match across the Sunshine Double, losing to Rinky Hijikata in Indian Wells and Matteo Berrettini in Miami.

Bublik has made great strides with his clay game - he's 18-5 on the surface dating back to the start of last year, highlighted by titles in Gstaad and Kitzbuehel, along with a French Open quarter-final run.

The Kazakh had only won one match in Monte Carlo prior to this week, but he's doubled that tally, taking out Gael Monfils 6-4 6-4 before a clean 6-2 7-5 victory over Miami runner-up Jiri Lehecka.

Alcaraz vs Bublik Live Stream

Watch and bet on Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik live tennis from Monte Carlo.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Monte Carlo with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Carlos Alcaraz v Alexander Bublik

Alcaraz is tipped for a strong performance here, covering the -5.5 games line.

Alcaraz -5.5

Games Line

$1.88 - 2 Units

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