Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Alcaraz the value pick in Cincinnati final

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Mon 18 Aug 2025 06:27

Andrew Hendrie 18 Aug 2025

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Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz predictions for Monday's ATP Cincinnati final
Alcaraz has won five of the last six meetings between the pair
Alcaraz has won three of the four previous contests on North American hardcourts
Alcaraz has won 38 of his last 40 matches
The match is scheduled to start at 5.00am AEST on Tuesday August 19

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Carlos Alcaraz (Photo by Getty Images)

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz renew their growing rivalry when the world's two best players collide in the Cincinnati Masters final on Monday.

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Head To Head
Jannik Sinner Form
Carlos Alcaraz Form
Live Stream

The two undisputed best players in the world clash for just the second time in a Masters 1000 final - and Alcaraz looks the value bet heading into Cincinnati's showpiece. Alcaraz has won five of the last six meetings between the pair and three of the four previous encounters on North American hardcourts. The Spaniard was absolutely dominating Sinner until the Italian turned the tables with a four-set victory in the Wimbledon final - but it remains to be seen if the World No. 1 can extend that reversal of fortune in this matchup.

Alcaraz has won 38 of his last 40 matches dating back to April and I don't think Sinner has looked his best so far in Cincinnati. Of course, Alcaraz has been guilty of his frequent concentration lapses, but the issue for him is getting to the final - now he's there, we can expect him at the peak of his powers. I see this as a 50-50 matchup with nothing really separating the pair - as such, happy to back Alcaraz to edge it.

Head To Head

Alcaraz leads the overall H2H 8-5, winning five of the last six encounters. Their last four meetings have been finals, with Alcaraz taking the title in Beijing, Rome and Roland Garros, while Sinner collected the silverware at Wimbledon.

Jannik Sinner Form

Sinner has put together a 31-3 record on the season, holding off Alcaraz (for now) for the No. 1 ranking, but he's defending 2000 points at the US Open later this month and the Spaniard is barely defending anything in New York, so we can expect the pair to trade places at the top of the rankings for the foreseeable future.

The Italian successfully defended his Australian Open title in January before copping his three-month suspension, returning in Rome and immediately making the final, going down to Alcaraz.

Sinner bounce back from his heartbreaking Roland Garros defeat in five sets to Alcaraz by serving his revenge in the Wimbledon final the following month, something that should give him immense confidence heading into this contest.

It's been a flawless passage through to the Cincinnati final for Sinner, who is looking to defend his title. The 23-year-old has defeated Daniel Galan, Gabriel Diallo, Adrian Mannarino, Felix Auger-Aliassime and qualifier Terence Atmane in straight sets to return to the final.

Carlos Alcaraz Form

Alcaraz has registered a 53-6 record on the season, winning 38 of his last 40 matches since the start of the clay swing, picking up titles in Monte Carlo, Rome, Roland Garros and Queen's Club.

The Spaniard couldn't keep his run of titles going at Wimbledon, where he was pipped in four sets by Sinner. However, Alcaraz has extended his streak of consecutive finals appearances to seven with his run to the title match in Cincinnati.

After suffering an early loss to Gael Monfils last year, Alcaraz has made ground on Sinner in the race for the No. 1 ranking and would overtake the Italian in the live ATP rankings when the US Open starts next week.

Alcaraz has dropped a set against both Damir Dzumhur and Andrey Rublev this week in Cincinnati, but was clinical against an ailing Alexander Zverev in the semi-finals, easing to a 6-4 6-3 victory.