Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Rublev a chance in Cincy quarters

Andrew Hendrie

Editor

Last updated: Fri 15 Aug 2025 02:00

Andrew Hendrie 15 Aug 2025

Share this article

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev predictions for Friday's ATP Cincinnati QF match
Rublev has won three sets in his last three meetings with Rublev
Alcaraz has dropped at least one set in 13 of his last 21 matches
The match is scheduled to start around 5.00am AEST on Saturday August 16

Expired

Andrey Rublev (Photo by Getty Images)

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Carlos Alcaraz continues his bid for a first Cincinnati Masters title when he comes up against Andrey Rublev in the quarter-finals on Friday.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Head To Head
Carlos Alcaraz Form
Andrey Rublev Form
Live Stream

As expected, it hasn't been pretty from Alcaraz through the early rounds, with the World No. 2 battling his way through to the quarter-finals without playing anywhere close to his best. By contrast, Rublev is enjoying somewhat of a resurgent week, playing some good tennis to knock off Alexei Popyrin either side of one-sided victories over Learner Tien and Francisco Comesana. Rublev has played well in Cincinnati in the past - this is his fourth quarter-final at the tournament, while he was also a runner-up in 2021.

I'm happy to take a punt on Rublev here - he's won three sets over Alcaraz in their last three meetings, so he has the game and big forehand to trouble the Spaniard. Alcaraz just isn't reliable in these sorts of matches and I still remember one of the worst ever performances of his career at this tournament last year against Gael Monfils. No value with Alcaraz, lots of value with Rublev.

Head To Head

Alcaraz leads 3-1, but the last three have been very close. Rublev emerged a three-set winner at Madrid 2024 before Alcaraz prevailed 6-3 7-6(8) at the season-ending ATP Finals. The Spaniard then toughed out a 6-7(5) 6-3 6-4 6-4 victory in the Wimbledon R16 earlier this year.

Carlos Alcaraz Form

Alcaraz comes into this contest with a 51-6 record on the season and will be hoping for a strong end to the year as he looks to wrestle the No. 1 ranking away from rival Jannik Sinner.

The Spaniard has won 38 of his last 40 matches, securing the silverware in Monte Carlo, Rome, Roland Garros and Queen's Club and finishing runner-up at Barcelona and Wimbledon. Alcaraz is aiming to reach seven consecutive finals in Cincinnati.

However, he hasn't been at his best. Alcaraz needed three sets to overcome Damir Dzumhur in his opener and benefitted from Hamad Medjedovic struggling in the heat of their third round clash.

Alcaraz then trailed Luca Nardi 1-4 in the second set of their R16 showdown before the Italian imploded with countless errors and double faults, with the second seed coming back to complete a 6-1 6-4 triumph.

Andrey Rublev Form

Rublev enters this clash with a 29-18 record in 2025, but has slipped out of the world’s top 10 and is far from the form that saw him peak at No. 5 in 2021.

There were signs of a resurgence earlier in the year when he claimed the ATP 500 title in Doha, defeating Alex de Minaur, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Jack Draper. Before this week, those remained his last completed wins over top 30 opponents - a telling indication of his recent struggles.

But, after making the Toronto quarter-finals last week, Rublev is starting to build some momentum.

The Russian avenged a loss to Learner Tien from earlier in the summer, defeating the young American in straight sets in his Cincinnati opener before taking out World No. 19 Alexei Popyrin in a three-set, three-hour marathon in the heat.

Rublev backed it up with a routine 6-2 6-3 over Francisco Comesana in the R16, dropping just six points behind his first serve.

Live Stream

Watch and bet on Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev live Cincinnati Masters tennis from Cincinnati.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Cincinnati with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Carlos Alcaraz v Andrey Rublev

Obviously Alcaraz deserves to be favourite, but Rublev has proven he can trouble the Spaniard in recent meetings and on current form, I think the Russian can do some damage here.

Backing Rublev to take at least a set, with a smaller stake on him winning in three.