Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Sabalenka to edge Rybakina in quarter-finals

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri 15 Aug 2025 01:29

Andrew Hendrie 15 Aug 2025

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina predictions for Friday's WTA Cincinnati QF match
Sabalenka has won seven of the 11 previous meetings between the pair
The last three meetings have seen Over 22.5 games
Rybakina has seen Over 22.5 games in her five completed matches
The match is scheduled to start around 2.30am AEST on Saturday August 16

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Aryna Sabalenka (Photo by Getty Images)

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina renew their rivalry when the the pair square off for a place in the Cincinnati Open semi-finals on Friday.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Head To Head
Aryna Sabalenka Form
Elena Rybakina Form
Live Stream

Sabalenka has become the first player since Simona Halep (2013-18) to reach four consecutive Cincinnati quarter-finals, while Rybakina is only the second top 10 player since 1990 to make the quarter-finals of a WTA 1000 event after dropping the opening set in her first three matches. It's been a tough season when it comes to close matches for Rybakina, but the tide is finally turning in Cincinnati - can she continue her magical run with another scalp over the World No. 1?

I don't think so. While Rybakina is winning matches this week, there's an element of luck and fortune associated with all of those victories and that can only take you so far - especially when you now come up against the world's best player. Recent meetings between these two have been close, but when push comes to shove, I've got to back Sabalenka to get the job done.

Head To Head

Sabalenka leads 7-4, winning their most-recent encounter 7-6 3-6 7-6 in the quarter-finals of Berlin earlier this season.

Aryna Sabalenka Form

Sabalenka has put together a 50-9 record on the season, making this the third straight year she has won 50+ matches.

The World No. 1 remains the player to beat, but it's been a disappointing year at the slams, with Sabalenka losing in the final of both the Australian Open and Roland Garros, along with a defeat in the semi-finals of Wimbledon.

Opting to bypass the Canada Open last week, Sabalenka returned to action in Cincinnati, where she has a great record and is the defending champion.

Sabalenka has worked her way through a very tough draw, overcoming Grand Slam champions in Marketa Vondrousova and Emma Raducanu before taking out the in-form Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-1 7-5 in the R16.

Elena Rybakina Form

Rybakina comes into this contest with a 40-15 record on the season, breaking back into the top 10 following her run to the semi-finals of Montreal last week.

Forty wins in mid-August is nothing to be scoffed at, but Rybakina would be relatively disappointed with her record in big matches - before this tournament, she had only beaten one other top 10 player all season.

However, perhaps things are taking a turn in Cincinnati. Rybakina has fought valiantly to reach the quarter-finals, coming from a set down to take out Renata Zarazua, Elise Mertens and Madison Keys.

The 6-7 6-4 6-2 victory over Keys in the R16 was Rybakina's second top 10 win of 2025 and should instil some confidence ahead of this showdown with the World No. 1.