2025 ATP Monte Carlo

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Casper Ruud vs Alexei Popyrin Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Ruud's strong clay form to continue

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 10 Apr 2025 01:00

Andrew Hendrie 10 Apr 2025

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Casper Ruud vs Alexei Popyrin predictions for Thursday's ATP Monte Carlo R16
Ruud has won 22 of his last 27 matches on clay
Ruud is a former runner-up and semi-finalist in Monte Carlo
Popyrin's two matches this tournament have gone the distance
The match is scheduled to start around 9.00pm AEST on Thursday April 10

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Casper Ruud (Photo by Getty Images)

Casper Ruud vs Alexei Popyrin Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Alexei Popyrin faces an extremely tough assignment as he bids to win three matches in a row for the first time in 2025, facing former finalist Casper Ruud in the Monte Carlo Masters R16 on Thursday.

Casper Ruud vs Alexei Popyrin Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Head To Head
Casper Ruud Form
Alexei Popyrin Form
Live Stream

Popyrin arrived in Monte Carlo without a top 50 victory for the season and just two wins overall. However, after linking up with new coach Wayne Ferreira, Popyrin has secured back-to-back victories for the first time in 2025, conquering Ugo Humbert and Frances Tiafoe in three sets - with both wins coming from a set down.

The Aussie is a great clay courter and he has the tools to push Ruud, but the Norwegian is a beast on the dirt and is the deserved favourite. Ruud has won 22 of his last 27 matches on clay and nobody has won more matches this decade on the surface than the World No. 7. I'm backing Ruud to cover a -3.5 games line as the best bet, but Popyrin has the potential to sneak a set.

Head To Head

This will be the first competitive meeting between the pair.

Casper Ruud Form

Ruud comes into this showdown with a 13-4 record on the season, but without ever really making an impact in notable tournaments.

A runner-up showing at the ATP 500 event in Dallas has been Ruud's best result in 2025, with the Norwegian crashing out of the Australian Open in the second round, while he lost his opening match at Indian Wells and went down to Francisco Cerundolo in the R16 of Miami.

Ruud will relish a return to clay, where he's won 22 of his last 27 matches and at least one title in each of the last four years.

The former French Open finalist got off to a flying start in his Monte Carlo opener, crushing Roberto Bautista Agut 6-2 6-2, striking 24 winners to just 10 unforced errors.

Ruud has played well in Monte Carlo in previous years, reaching the semi-finals in 2021 and the final in 2024, where he beat Novak Djokovic before going down to Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Alexei Popyrin Form

It had been a poor season for Popyrin before arriving in Monte Carlo - he was 2-7 for the year and without a win over a top 50 player.

However, that's all changed with an encouraging week in Monte Carlo, with Popyrin taking the scalp of World No. 20 Ugo Humbert and No. 17 Frances Tiafoe.

Both wins for Popyrin came from a set down, highlighting his fighting qualities this week. There's no doubt a new voice in his ear in Wayne Ferreira has helped the Aussie get back to winning ways.

Popyrin has an impressive 7-5 record against top 10 players at Masters 1000 events throughout his career, with three of them coming in Montreal last year, where he completed a shock run to the title.

Live Stream

Watch and bet on Casper Ruud vs Alexei Popyrin live tennis from Monte-Carlo.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Monte Carlo with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Casper Ruud v Alexei Popyrin

Ruud is arguably a top four clay courter in the world and he's dominated on this surface this decade, with no player winning more matches on the surface.

Backing Ruud to cover a -3.5 games line, but Popyrin has a good record vs top 10 players at Masters 1000 tournaments, so the Aussie could sneak a set in a tiebreak.

Ruud -3.5

Games Line

$1.56 - 3 Units

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Ruud 2-1

Set Betting

$4.20 - 1 Unit

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