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2025 ATP Monte Carlo

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Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Dimitrov good value in Monte Carlo quarter-finals

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: 11 Apr 2025

Andrew Hendrie 11 Apr 2025

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Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov predictions for Friday's ATP Monte Carlo QF
De Minaur has a 4-13 record vs top 20 players on clay
Dimitrov is a two-time Monte Carlo semi-finalist
Dimitrov has won seven of his last eight matches
The match is scheduled to start around 11.00pm AEST on Friday April 11

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Grigor Dimitrov (Photo by Getty Images)

Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Grigor Dimitrov will fancy himself to reach a third Monte Carlo Masters semi-final when he squares off against Alex de Minaur on Friday.

Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Head To Head
Alex de Minaur Form
Grigor Dimitrov Form
Live Stream

I'm a little surprised to see Dimitrov as a $2.54 outsider with EliteBet here - the Bulgarian has made more Masters 1000 quarter-finals in Monte Carlo than any other tournament in his career and he's back in some great form after making the semi-finals of Miami in his last tournament.

De Minaur has of course taken his game to the next level and is a strong presence inside the top 10 - but I still have my doubts whenever he comes up against top players. Indeed, de Minaur's victory over a fatigued Daniil Medvedev was his first over a top 20 player in 10 attempts dating back to October 2024. Furthermore, de Minaur has a dire 4-13 record vs top 20 players on clay.

With those stats in mind, I'm backing Dimitrov to cover a +3.5 games line and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Bulgarian prevails and makes a third semi-final in Monte Carlo.

Head To Head

De Minaur leads 3-2, with their last two meetings come in Rotterdam in 2024 and 2023, with the pair splitting one victory apiece.

Alex de Minaur Form

Nobody has won more matches on tour in 2025 than De Minaur heading into this contest, with the Aussie registering a 19-6 record.

In saying that, de Minaur hasn't really made much of an impact after reaching the Australian Open quarter-finals and making the final of Rotterdam, going down to Carlos Alcaraz.

De Minaur had lost four of his last eight matches heading into Monte Carlo, including disappointing defeats to Francisco Cerundolo and Matteo Berrettini in Indian Wells and Miami.

However, de Minaur has turned things around on clay, reaching back-to-back quarter-finals in Monte Carlo. The 25-year-old claimed a good three-set win over Tomas Machac in his opening match before blitzing a fatigued Daniil Medvedev 6-2 6-2.

Grigor Dimitrov Form

Dimitrov comes into this encounter with a 12-6 record on the season, which was hindered initially due to physical problems that caused him to retire in three of his opening four tournaments in Brisbane, the Australian Open and Dubai.

It was looking like Dimitrov was about to drop out of the world's top 20, but he has suddenly returned to full fitness and is back playing great tennis again.

It started with a solid R16 showing at Indian Wells before Dimitrov nearly defended his Miami runner-up points from last year, making the semi-finals before going down to Novak Djokovic.

Dimitrov hasn't been entirely convincing this week in Monte Carlo, but he's returned to the quarter-finals with a straight sets win over Nicolas Jarry and three-set triumphs over Valentin Vacherot and Alejandro Tabilo.

The Bulgarian is into his fifth Monte Carlo quarter-final, where he has a 2-2 record at this stage of the tournament.

Live Stream

Watch and bet on Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov live tennis from Monte-Carlo.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Monte Carlo with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Alex de Minaur v Grigor Dimitrov

I still have my doubts on De Minaur against quality opponents on this surface - the Aussie is 4-13 vs top 20 players on clay and Dimitrov is a very good clay courter who has made two semi-finals at this tournament.

The value is with Dimitrov in this one.

Dimitrov +3.5

Games Line

$1.68 - 2 Units

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Dimitrov Win

H2H

$2.54 - 1 Unit

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