Alex de Minaur vs Daniil Medvedev Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Medvedev to secure eighth win over De Minaur

Both players will fancy themselves here - Medvedev has won seven of the 10 previous meetings between the pair, but de Minaur emerged triumphant in their only clash on clay at last year's French Open, going on to make the quarter-finals.

This is looming as a tight contest, with both players surviving three-setters in their previous rounds. For all of Medvedev's disdain for clay, it's actually his best surface in terms of winning percentage over the last couple of years, while his most-recent title came at the Rome Masters almost two years ago. Medvedev has a clear advantage in this matchup, with de Minaur struggling to hit through the Russian - and the Aussie should only find it tougher in slower conditions. All things considered, I think Medvedev is good value as the slight underdog here.

As mentioned, Medvedev leads 7-3, including winning three of the last four meetings. De Minaur was victorious in their only clash on clay in four sets at the 2024 French Open.

Nobody has won more matches in 2025 than de Minaur, who comes into this showdown with a 18-6 record on the season.

De Minaur did most of his good work in the opening two months of the season, making his first Australian Open quarter-final before finishing runner-up in Rotterdam.

The Aussie's form dipped after those tournaments and he came into Monte Carlo having lost four of his last eight matches, going down to Francisco Cerundolo and Matteo Berrettini at Indian Wells and Miami respectively.

De Minaur improved his results on clay last season, reaching quarter-finals at both Monte Carlo and Roland Garros. The 26-year-old secured a confidence-boosting opening win in Monte Carlo, defeating the in-form Tomas Machac 3-6 6-0 6-3.

It's been a wild last couple of years for Medvedev, who has tumbled out of the top 10 and failed to win a title since Rome in 2023.

Ironically, clay could be the solution for Medvedev to turn his form around - since the start of the 2023 season, he's won 73.3 per cent of matches on the surface, which is a better strike rate than on hardcourt or grass.

Medvedev has advanced into the Monte Carlo R16 for the fourth consecutive year and he's done so in a pair of marathon matches, edging out Karen Khachanov and Alexandre Muller in three sets.

The former US Open champion has now improved to 14-7 on the season and will now hope to reach the quarter-finals in Monte Carlo for the third time.