2025 ATP Monte Carlo

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Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Back the Overs in surprise Monte Carlo quarter-final

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri 11 Apr 2025 00:39

Andrew Hendrie 11 Apr 2025

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Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina predictions for Friday's ATP Monte Carlo QF
Popyrin has seen Over 21.5 games in his last five matches
Davidovich Fokina has seen Over 21.5 total games in his last three matches
Davidovich Fokina is top 10 in the ATP Race this season
The match is scheduled to start at 7.00pm AEST on Friday April 11

Expired

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Photo by Getty Images)

Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

It's a golden opportunity for both Alexei Popyrin and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina as the pair battle it out for a spot in the Monte Carlo Masters semi-finals on Friday.

Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Head To Head
Alexei Popyrin Form
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Live Stream

Both of these players love the grind - especially Popyrin lately, with the Aussie going the distance in his last five matches across Indian Wells, Miami and Monte Carlo. Davidovich Fokina also doesn't mind a scrap, with two of his three matches this week going three sets.

With this in mind, I'm backing Over 21.5 total games as one of the main plays for this clash. Both player will also be nervous with a Masters 1000 semi-final on the line, so another long match is expected. As for the winner, I'm leaning with Davidovich Fokina - he's the more natural clay courter of the pair and he's been here before in the past, reaching the Monte Carlo final in 2022. Backing the Spaniard with a small -1.5 games handicap and to edge it in three.

Head To Head

This will be the first tour-level meeting between the pair, with Popyrin prevailing all the way back in 2017 during the French Open junior semi-finals.

Alexei Popyrin Form

It's been a sensational week for Popyrin, with the Aussie arriving in Monte Carlo with a dire 2-7 record on the season and failing to beat a top 50 player.

That's all changed over the last few days, with Popyrin defeating three higher-ranked opponents to reach a first Monte Carlo quarter-final.

Indeed, Popyrin has conquered the likes of Ugo Humbert, Frances Tiafoe and Casper Ruud - all in three sets, coming back from a set down in the first two.

Popyrin proceeded to save two match points in a thrilling 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 triumph over Ruud in almost three hours.

This run is bringing back memories of Popyrin's incredible surge to the Canada Masters title in Montreal last year - can the Aussie double down in Monte Carlo?

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

What a start to the season it's been for Davidovich Fokina - the Spaniard is inside the top 10 in the ATP Race to Turin and back playing some of the best tennis of his career.

After a horror 2024 season, Davidovich Fokina is back on track in 2025, registering a 17-8 record on the year, with his highlights including a fourth round run at the Australian Open and runner-up finishes at Delray Beach and Acapulco.

Davidovich Fokina is at his best on clay and he's made a fantastic start to the European summer, conquering the likes of Ben Shelton, Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Jack Draper to return to the quarter-finals for the third time in Monte Carlo.

The 2022 Monte Carlo finalist edged out fifth seed Draper 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-4 in a marathon win on Thursday, securing a third top 10 scalp at this tournament.

Live Stream

Watch and bet on Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina live tennis from Monte-Carlo.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Monte Carlo with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

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Verdict

Alexei Popyrin v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Popyrin has gone the distance in his last five matches, while Davidovich Fokina has seen three sets in two of his three matches in Monte Carlo this week.

Over 21.5 total games is backed, with Davidovich Fokina covering a small -1.5 games line and prevailing in three.

Over 21.5

Total Games

$1.68 - 2 Units

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Davidovich Fokina -1.5

Games Handicap

$1.60 - 2 Units

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Davidovich Fokina 2-1

Set Betting

$4.20 - 1 Unit

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