Carlos Alcaraz vs Luca Nardi Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Can Nardi push Alcaraz again in R16?

Nardi is a prodigious talent, but wildly inconsistent, which is why it's not really a surprise that he's languishing down at No. 98 in the world. However, put the Italian on a big court against a star player and he has the ability to rise to the occasion. One example - last year at Indian Wells, when he lost in qualifying, gained entry into the main draw as a lucky loser and went on to beat Novak Djokovic on his way to the R16. Another - earlier this season in Doha when he qualified for the main draw and pushed Alcaraz all the way in a three-set battle in the R16. Now, Nardi gets another shot against none other than Alcaraz once again in the R16 of Cincinnati.

As expected, there's not much value in backing Alcaraz for a one-sided victory, so I'm happy to take another punt on Nardi to make this competitive once again. Taking Alcaraz for another three-set victory at big odds.

As mentioned, Alcaraz leads 1-0, edging Nardi 6-1 4-6 6-3 in the R16 of Doha earlier this year.

Alcaraz has put together a brilliant 50-6 record on the season as he chases a first Cincinnati Masters title and attempts to take the No. 1 ranking from rival Jannik Sinner by the end of the year.

The Spaniard has won 37 of his last 39 matches, taking titles in Monte Carlo, Rome, Roland Garros and Queen's Club and reaching the final of Barcelona and Wimbledon. That's six straight finals coming into Cincinnati.

As if often the case for Alcaraz in the early rounds of tournaments, he's not been anywhere near his best across his first two matches in Cincinnati.

The World No. 2 needed three sets to overcome Damir Dzumhur in his opening match and was a 6-4 6-4 winner over Hamad Medjedovic in the third round, but he benefitted from his opponent really struggling in the heat.

Nardi only won four tour-level matches last year and arrived in Cincinnati with just five tour-level victories for 2025, which is why his ranking is barely inside the top 100 at No. 98.

However, Nardi is a much better player than that ranking suggests, he just struggles with consistency and getting himself up for matches against lower-ranked players in lesser tournaments.

If he wants to cement himself higher up the rankings, he'll have to work on that consistency/motivation, but the Italian is putting together a nice run in Cincinnati after losing in qualifying.

Gaining entry into the main draw as a lucky loser, Nardi defeated Thiago Augustin Tirante and Denis Shapovalov before his third round opponent Jakub Mensik retired with illness after the first set.