Alex de Minaur vs Cameron Norrie Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Demon to edge Norrie in Monte Carlo opener

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Tue 07 Apr 2026 01:51

Andrew Hendrie 07 Apr 2026

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Alex de Minaur vs Cameron Norrie predictions for Tuesday's ATP Monte Carlo R2 match
Another close match expected between these two - Over 21.5 games expected
De Minaur was a semi-finalist in Monte Carlo last year and is tipped to prevail in three
The match is scheduled to start around 1.00am AEDT on Wednesday April 8

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Alex De Minaur (Photo by Getty Images)

Alex de Minaur vs Cameron Norrie Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Alex de Minaur gets his Monte Carlo Masters campaign up and running with a tough opening clash with Cameron Norrie on Tuesday.

Alex de Minaur vs Cameron Norrie Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
De Minaur vs Norrie Stats & Trends
De Minaur vs Norrie Head To Head
Alex de Minaur Form Analysis
Cameron Norrie Form Analysis
De Minaur vs Norrie Live Stream

De Minaur has produced some brilliant tennis in Monte Carlo over the last couple of years, reaching the quarter-finals in 2024 before going one step further with a semi-final run last year. Could the Aussie continue that trend by making the final this season?

It's obviously a huge ask with both Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in the draw, but De Minaur was on fire in Monte Carlo last year, crushing some top players such as Daniil Medvedev (6-2 6-2) and Grigor Dimitrov (6-0 6-0). However, the Aussie has suffered a dip in form coming into this tournament, going 1-3 since winning the Rotterdam title in February.

One of those defeats came to Norrie at Indian Wells - although the conditions in the Californian desert are perfect for the Brit, who is a former champion at that tournament. It's a different story in Monte Carlo, with Norrie claiming his first win in Monte Carlo since 2019 in his opening round victory against Miomir Kecanmovic - and it came in a deciding set tiebreak.

Nevertheless, Norrie has proven to be a thorn in de Minaur's side throughout his career, but I do think on this surface and in these conditions, the Aussie has the slight edge and should prevail in a tight one.

De Minaur vs Norrie Stats & Trends

Over 21.5 games has landed in three of the five previous meetings
Over 21.5 games has landed in Norrie's last two matches
Over 21.5 games has landed in three of de Minaur's last four matches
Norrie is 3-10 vs top 10 players on clay
De Minaur is 17-3 in his last 20 matches vs players ranked outside the top 20 on clay (three defeats vs Nadal, Bublik & Fils)

De Minaur vs Norrie Head To Head

Norrie leads 3-2 and won in straight sets when the pair met at Indian Wells last month.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Surface	Score
2026	Cameron Norrie	ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells	Round of 32	Outdoor Hard	6–4, 6–4
2024	Cameron Norrie	United Cup	Round Robin	Outdoor Hard	6–4, 2–6, 7–6(2)
2023	Alex de Minaur	ATP Masters 1000 Canada	Round of 64	Outdoor Hard	7–5, 6–4
2023	Cameron Norrie	United Cup	Round Robin	Outdoor Hard	6–3, 6–3
2022	Alex de Minaur	Barcelona	Quarterfinal	Outdoor Clay	6–3, 5–7, 6–1

Alex de Minaur Form Analysis

2026 Record: 12-5
ATP Monte Carlo Record: 8-5
Current Ranking: No. 6
Career-High Ranking: No. 6 (2024)

De Minaur had another great start to the season after reaching the Australian Open quarter-finals and winning his 11th career title in Rotterdam.

However, the wins have dried up since then - but De Minaur has managed to remain at his career-high ranking of No. 6.

He'll do well to stay there after this tournament after the Aussie made a sensational run to the semi-finals of Monte Carlo last year, going down to Lorenzo Musetti in a final set tiebreak.

De Minaur's form over the last month has dipped - he lost in the opening round of Acapulco and Miami to Patrick Kypson and Stefanos Tsitsipas respectively either side of a straight sets defeat to Norrie at Indian Wells in the R32.

Cameron Norrie Form Analysis

2026 Record: 10-7
ATP Monte Carlo Record: 3-4
Current Ranking: No. 24
Career-High Ranking: No. 8 (2022)

Norrie has done a tremendous job of clawing his way back up the rankings after injury and he's on the cusp of re-entering the top 20 coming into this clash.

The Brit's good form can actually be traced back to last year's clay swing - he's won nine of his last 11 matches on the surface after a run to the Geneva final and fourth round of Roland Garros, losing to Novak Djokovic on both occasions.

Norrie once again played his best tennis at Indian Wells last month as he beat de Minaur on his way to the quarter-finals, going down to Alcaraz - but he couldn't back it up in Miami, falling to Alex Michelsen in his opener.

The 30-year-old was winless in Monte Carlo since 2019, but he snapped his drought with a 6-2 4-6 7-6(0) victory over Miomir Kecmanovic in his opener, winning all seven points in the final set tiebreak.