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Alex de Minaur vs Cameron Norrie Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Demon to edge Norrie in Monte Carlo opener
Alex de Minaur kicks off his Monte Carlo Masters campaign with a challenging match against Cameron Norrie. De Minaur has a strong track record in Monte Carlo, reaching the semi-finals last year, and despite a dip in recent form, he is favored to narrowly win over Norrie, whose performance on clay is less formidable. De Minaur's recent record against players outside the top 20 on clay is impressive, signaling a potential advantage. You can catch the action live on streaming platforms with applicable geo-restrictions.
- Alex de Minaur vs Cameron Norrie predictions for Tuesday's ATP Monte Carlo R2 match
- Another close match expected between these two - Over 21.5 games expected
- De Minaur was a semi-finalist in Monte Carlo last year and is tipped to prevail in three
- The match is scheduled to start around 1.00am AEDT on Wednesday April 8
Expired
Alex De Minaur (Photo by Getty Images)
Alex de Minaur vs Cameron Norrie Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Alex de Minaur gets his Monte Carlo Masters campaign up and running with a tough opening clash with Cameron Norrie on Tuesday.
De Minaur has produced some brilliant tennis in Monte Carlo over the last couple of years, reaching the quarter-finals in 2024 before going one step further with a semi-final run last year. Could the Aussie continue that trend by making the final this season?
It's obviously a huge ask with both Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in the draw, but De Minaur was on fire in Monte Carlo last year, crushing some top players such as Daniil Medvedev (6-2 6-2) and Grigor Dimitrov (6-0 6-0). However, the Aussie has suffered a dip in form coming into this tournament, going 1-3 since winning the Rotterdam title in February.
One of those defeats came to Norrie at Indian Wells - although the conditions in the Californian desert are perfect for the Brit, who is a former champion at that tournament. It's a different story in Monte Carlo, with Norrie claiming his first win in Monte Carlo since 2019 in his opening round victory against Miomir Kecanmovic - and it came in a deciding set tiebreak.
Nevertheless, Norrie has proven to be a thorn in de Minaur's side throughout his career, but I do think on this surface and in these conditions, the Aussie has the slight edge and should prevail in a tight one.
De Minaur vs Norrie Stats & Trends
- Over 21.5 games has landed in three of the five previous meetings
- Over 21.5 games has landed in Norrie's last two matches
- Over 21.5 games has landed in three of de Minaur's last four matches
- Norrie is 3-10 vs top 10 players on clay
- De Minaur is 17-3 in his last 20 matches vs players ranked outside the top 20 on clay (three defeats vs Nadal, Bublik & Fils)
De Minaur vs Norrie Head To Head
Norrie leads 3-2 and won in straight sets when the pair met at Indian Wells last month.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Surface | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Cameron Norrie | ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells | Round of 32 | Outdoor Hard | 6–4, 6–4 |
| 2024 | Cameron Norrie | United Cup | Round Robin | Outdoor Hard | 6–4, 2–6, 7–6(2) |
| 2023 | Alex de Minaur | ATP Masters 1000 Canada | Round of 64 | Outdoor Hard | 7–5, 6–4 |
| 2023 | Cameron Norrie | United Cup | Round Robin | Outdoor Hard | 6–3, 6–3 |
| 2022 | Alex de Minaur | Barcelona | Quarterfinal | Outdoor Clay | 6–3, 5–7, 6–1 |
Alex de Minaur Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 12-5
- ATP Monte Carlo Record: 8-5
- Current Ranking: No. 6
- Career-High Ranking: No. 6 (2024)
De Minaur had another great start to the season after reaching the Australian Open quarter-finals and winning his 11th career title in Rotterdam.
However, the wins have dried up since then - but De Minaur has managed to remain at his career-high ranking of No. 6.
He'll do well to stay there after this tournament after the Aussie made a sensational run to the semi-finals of Monte Carlo last year, going down to Lorenzo Musetti in a final set tiebreak.
De Minaur's form over the last month has dipped - he lost in the opening round of Acapulco and Miami to Patrick Kypson and Stefanos Tsitsipas respectively either side of a straight sets defeat to Norrie at Indian Wells in the R32.
Cameron Norrie Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 10-7
- ATP Monte Carlo Record: 3-4
- Current Ranking: No. 24
- Career-High Ranking: No. 8 (2022)
Norrie has done a tremendous job of clawing his way back up the rankings after injury and he's on the cusp of re-entering the top 20 coming into this clash.
The Brit's good form can actually be traced back to last year's clay swing - he's won nine of his last 11 matches on the surface after a run to the Geneva final and fourth round of Roland Garros, losing to Novak Djokovic on both occasions.
Norrie once again played his best tennis at Indian Wells last month as he beat de Minaur on his way to the quarter-finals, going down to Alcaraz - but he couldn't back it up in Miami, falling to Alex Michelsen in his opener.
The 30-year-old was winless in Monte Carlo since 2019, but he snapped his drought with a 6-2 4-6 7-6(0) victory over Miomir Kecmanovic in his opener, winning all seven points in the final set tiebreak.
De Minaur vs Norrie Live Stream
Watch and bet on Alex de Minaur vs Cameron Norrie live tennis from Monte Carlo.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Monte Carlo with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.
Verdict
It's set to be another tough battle, but de Minaur has played well in Monte Carlo the last two years and is tipped to edge this clash in three.
Over 21.5
Total Games
$1.85 - 2 Units
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De Minaur 2-1
Set Betting
$3.95 - 1 Unit
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