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North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 4 Tips & Prediction - Storm set to cover with plenty of points in Townsville

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 26 Mar 2026 13:57

Andrew Hendrie 26 Mar 2026

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North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm predictions for Saturday's NRL R4 game
Cowboys have lost their last nine games vs top eight teams by an average margin of 19 points
Prediction: Storm to cover their -13.5 line with Over 50.5 total points
Great value on Wishart to cross for anytime & last tryscorer - he has three tries in his last three vs Cows
The game is scheduled for kick off at 7.30pm AEDT on Saturday March 28

North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm

North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 4 Tips & Prediction

The Storm are tipped to bounce back from last week's Grand Final rematch loss with a strong win over a Cowboys side that have been repeatedly blown away by the elite sides.

North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 4 Tips & Prediction
Cowboys vs Storm Stats & Trends
Cowboys vs Storm Head To Head
North Queensland Cowboys Form Analysis
North Queensland Cowboys Team News
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis
Melbourne Storm Team News

Melbourne aren't the methodical and mechanical beasts they were for the better part of the last two decades - they are regularly blowing half-time leads and making ill-timed errors. However, they still should be more than good enough for this Cowboys side that could easily be picking up the wooden spoon in 2026.

Don't let last week's win over the Titans fool you - North Queensland are in strife. That game was an absolute bludger barely worthy of QLD Cup standard. The week before, the Cows were touched up by the Tigers, leaking 44 points, while they were also beaten by Newcastle in Vegas. Importantly for our main bet here, the Cowboys have lost their last nine games against top eight teams by an average margin of 19 points.

So, no surprises I'm backing Melbourne to cover a -13.5 line. Always a bit cautious backing an away team at such a big line, but it has to be done. While the Cowboys are shocking defensively, they do have plenty of players that can carve up in attack and score points, so liking the Over 50.5 total.

I've done some scanning of the top bookmakers in Australia and I need to take the $5.50 on offer for Tyran Wishart to score a try with Dabble. The livewire utility is priced around $3.50 at most other bookies and has a good record against the Cows - look for him to make an impact around the ruck against some tired Cowboys' forwards in the second half. Take him with a small stake for last tryscorer too.

Cowboys vs Storm Stats & Trends

Cowboys have lost their last nine games vs top eight teams
Cowboys have lost those nine games by an average margin of 19 points
Storm's two wins in 2026 have been by 48 & 26 points
Storm have seen 56+ points in two of their three games this season
Three of the last four meetings have seen 52+ points
Tyran Wishart has scored three tries in his last three appearances vs Cowboys

Cowboys vs Storm Head To Head

There was a time recently when the Cowboys won four straight, but the Storm have steadied the ship with victories in the last two meetings.

Year	Winner	Score	Venue
2025	Melbourne Storm	26–20	QLD C. Bank
2025	Melbourne Storm	38–14	AAMI
2024	North Queensland Cowboys	38–30	QLD C. Bank
2023	North Queensland Cowboys	45–20	QLD C. Bank
2022	North Queensland Cowboys	36–6	QLD C. Bank

North Queensland Cowboys Form Analysis

As always, there's a lot of potential in the Cowboys, but they just can't seem to tap into it.

An opening round defeat in Vegas to the Knights was followed by a diabolical 44-18 defeat to the Tigers at Leichhardt.

North Queensland opened their account for 2026 last week at home with a 30-16 victory over fellow battlers Gold Coast - but it was nothing to write home about.

Tom Dearden got the Cowboys' attack moving and allowed outside backs like Scotty Drinkwater and Jaxon Purdue to work their magic in open space. But the Cows' main issue remains defence and they have a big task ahead of them to keep the Storm at bay here.

North Queensland Cowboys Team News

Zac Laybutt comes in at centre for Tom Chester, who is out suspended.

Tom Mikaele and Harrison Edwards join the side on the bench.

North Queensland Cowboys Team List

1. Scott Drinkwater

2. Braidon Burns

3. Jaxon Purdue

4. Zac Laybutt

5. Murray Taulagi

6. Jake Clifford

7. Tom Dearden

8. Coen Hess

9. Reed Mahoney

10. Jason Taumalolo

11. Heilum Luki

12. Sam McIntyre

13. Reuben Cotter

Interchange

14. Soni Luke

15. Kai O’Donnell

16. Griffin Neame

17. Harrison Edwards

Reserves

18. Thomas Mikaele

19. Liam Sutton

20. Kaiden Lahrs

21. Matthew Lodge

22. Robert Derby

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis

Melbourne launched their season as they usually do under Craig Bellamy, absolutely crushing the Eels 52-4 in the opening round.

It wasn't as polished, but the Storm backed it up by outscoring the Dragons 46-20 in their following game.

Joe Chan has slotted in seamlessly on that right edge previously occupied by Eli Katoa and has two tries in three games, linking up brilliantly with Jahrome Hughes.

However, that partnership wasn't enough for the Storm in last week's Grand Final rematch with the Broncos. In what is becoming a worrying trend, the Storm blew another half-time lead - this time 14 points as they went down 18-14 at home.

Melbourne Storm Team News

Trent Loiero has been named to start in a swap with Tui Kamikamica in Melbourne's only change from last week.

Melbourne Storm Team List

1. Sualauvi Faalogo

2. William Warbrick

3. Jack Howarth

4. Moses Leo

5. Nick Meaney

6. Cameron Munster

7. Jahrome Hughes

8. Stefano Utoikamanu

9. Harry Grant

10. Josh King

11. Joe Chan

12. Alec MacDonald

13. Trent Loiero

Interchange

14. Tyran Wishart

15. Cooper Clarke

16. Tui Kamikamica

17. Davvy Moale

Reserves

18. Jack Hetherington

19. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown

20. Lazarus Vaalepu

21. Manaia Waitere

22. Trent Toelau

Verdict

North Queensland Cowboys v Melbourne Storm

The Storm are tipped to cover with Over 50.5 total points. Tyran Wishart is great value for a try off the bench.

Storm -13.5

Line

$1.90 - 3 Units

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