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North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 4 Tips & Prediction - Storm set to cover with plenty of points in Townsville
The Melbourne Storm are favored to secure a decisive victory over the North Queensland Cowboys in NRL Round 4. Despite the Storm's recent tendency to lose half-time leads, their overall performance, especially in recent blowout wins, gives them an edge. The Cowboys, conversely, have struggled against top teams, losing nine consecutive matches by sizable margins. With the game's scoring potentially exceeding 50.5 points, Tyran Wishart presents a compelling value bet to score a try off the bench.
- North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm predictions for Saturday's NRL R4 game
- Cowboys have lost their last nine games vs top eight teams by an average margin of 19 points
- Prediction: Storm to cover their -13.5 line with Over 50.5 total points
- Great value on Wishart to cross for anytime & last tryscorer - he has three tries in his last three vs Cows
- The game is scheduled for kick off at 7.30pm AEDT on Saturday March 28
North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm
North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 4 Tips & Prediction
The Storm are tipped to bounce back from last week's Grand Final rematch loss with a strong win over a Cowboys side that have been repeatedly blown away by the elite sides.
Melbourne aren't the methodical and mechanical beasts they were for the better part of the last two decades - they are regularly blowing half-time leads and making ill-timed errors. However, they still should be more than good enough for this Cowboys side that could easily be picking up the wooden spoon in 2026.
Don't let last week's win over the Titans fool you - North Queensland are in strife. That game was an absolute bludger barely worthy of QLD Cup standard. The week before, the Cows were touched up by the Tigers, leaking 44 points, while they were also beaten by Newcastle in Vegas. Importantly for our main bet here, the Cowboys have lost their last nine games against top eight teams by an average margin of 19 points.
So, no surprises I'm backing Melbourne to cover a -13.5 line. Always a bit cautious backing an away team at such a big line, but it has to be done. While the Cowboys are shocking defensively, they do have plenty of players that can carve up in attack and score points, so liking the Over 50.5 total.
I've done some scanning of the top bookmakers in Australia and I need to take the $5.50 on offer for Tyran Wishart to score a try with Dabble. The livewire utility is priced around $3.50 at most other bookies and has a good record against the Cows - look for him to make an impact around the ruck against some tired Cowboys' forwards in the second half. Take him with a small stake for last tryscorer too.
Cowboys vs Storm Stats & Trends
- Cowboys have lost their last nine games vs top eight teams
- Cowboys have lost those nine games by an average margin of 19 points
- Storm's two wins in 2026 have been by 48 & 26 points
- Storm have seen 56+ points in two of their three games this season
- Three of the last four meetings have seen 52+ points
- Tyran Wishart has scored three tries in his last three appearances vs Cowboys
Cowboys vs Storm Head To Head
There was a time recently when the Cowboys won four straight, but the Storm have steadied the ship with victories in the last two meetings.
| Year | Winner | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Melbourne Storm | 26–20 | QLD C. Bank |
| 2025 | Melbourne Storm | 38–14 | AAMI |
| 2024 | North Queensland Cowboys | 38–30 | QLD C. Bank |
| 2023 | North Queensland Cowboys | 45–20 | QLD C. Bank |
| 2022 | North Queensland Cowboys | 36–6 | QLD C. Bank |
North Queensland Cowboys Form Analysis
As always, there's a lot of potential in the Cowboys, but they just can't seem to tap into it.
An opening round defeat in Vegas to the Knights was followed by a diabolical 44-18 defeat to the Tigers at Leichhardt.
North Queensland opened their account for 2026 last week at home with a 30-16 victory over fellow battlers Gold Coast - but it was nothing to write home about.
Tom Dearden got the Cowboys' attack moving and allowed outside backs like Scotty Drinkwater and Jaxon Purdue to work their magic in open space. But the Cows' main issue remains defence and they have a big task ahead of them to keep the Storm at bay here.
North Queensland Cowboys Team News
Zac Laybutt comes in at centre for Tom Chester, who is out suspended.
Tom Mikaele and Harrison Edwards join the side on the bench.
North Queensland Cowboys Team List
1. Scott Drinkwater
2. Braidon Burns
3. Jaxon Purdue
4. Zac Laybutt
5. Murray Taulagi
6. Jake Clifford
7. Tom Dearden
8. Coen Hess
9. Reed Mahoney
10. Jason Taumalolo
11. Heilum Luki
12. Sam McIntyre
13. Reuben Cotter
Interchange
14. Soni Luke
15. Kai O’Donnell
16. Griffin Neame
17. Harrison Edwards
Reserves
18. Thomas Mikaele
19. Liam Sutton
20. Kaiden Lahrs
21. Matthew Lodge
22. Robert Derby
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis
Melbourne launched their season as they usually do under Craig Bellamy, absolutely crushing the Eels 52-4 in the opening round.
It wasn't as polished, but the Storm backed it up by outscoring the Dragons 46-20 in their following game.
Joe Chan has slotted in seamlessly on that right edge previously occupied by Eli Katoa and has two tries in three games, linking up brilliantly with Jahrome Hughes.
However, that partnership wasn't enough for the Storm in last week's Grand Final rematch with the Broncos. In what is becoming a worrying trend, the Storm blew another half-time lead - this time 14 points as they went down 18-14 at home.
Melbourne Storm Team News
Trent Loiero has been named to start in a swap with Tui Kamikamica in Melbourne's only change from last week.
Melbourne Storm Team List
Melbourne Storm Team List
1. Sualauvi Faalogo
2. William Warbrick
3. Jack Howarth
4. Moses Leo
5. Nick Meaney
6. Cameron Munster
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Stefano Utoikamanu
9. Harry Grant
10. Josh King
11. Joe Chan
12. Alec MacDonald
13. Trent Loiero
Interchange
14. Tyran Wishart
15. Cooper Clarke
16. Tui Kamikamica
17. Davvy Moale
Reserves
18. Jack Hetherington
19. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown
20. Lazarus Vaalepu
21. Manaia Waitere
22. Trent Toelau
Verdict
The Storm are tipped to cover with Over 50.5 total points. Tyran Wishart is great value for a try off the bench.
Storm -13.5
Line
$1.90 - 3 Units
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Over 50.5
Total Points
$1.88 - 2 Units
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Tyran Wishart
Anytime Tryscorer
$5.50 - 1 Unit
Download the dabble app
with referral code BETSAU
Download the dabble app, enter referral code BETSAU to enjoy Dabble, the betting app with a difference! Bet as normal with & also be part of Australia's betting community where you can follow punters and sports stars, copy their bets, have banter with your mates & watch Sky Racing channels. 18+. T&Cs apply. What are you prepared to lose today? Set a deposit limit.
Tyran Wishart
Last Tryscorer
$41.00 - 1 Unit
Download the dabble app
with referral code BETSAU
Download the dabble app, enter referral code BETSAU to enjoy Dabble, the betting app with a difference! Bet as normal with & also be part of Australia's betting community where you can follow punters and sports stars, copy their bets, have banter with your mates & watch Sky Racing channels. 18+. T&Cs apply. What are you prepared to lose today? Set a deposit limit.
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