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Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights NRL Round 4 Tips & Prediction - Minimal points as Dogs chase 3-0 start

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Wed 25 Mar 2026 13:59

Andrew Hendrie 25 Mar 2026

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Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights predictions for Saturday's NRL R4 game
Dogs winning tight games with strong defence to open season
Knights have failed to score a try in last two games vs Bulldogs; Ponga & Brown still out
Prediction: Under 48.5 total points with value in Dogs prevailing 1-12
Bank on the Galvon/Preston combination to lead to another four-pointer
The game is scheduled for kick off at 3.00pm AEDT on Saturday March 28

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights NRL Round 4 Tips & Prediction

The Bulldogs are tipped to make it three wins from three to launch the season as the Knights welcome back Fletcher Sharpe from injury.

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights NRL Round 4 Tips & Prediction
Bulldogs vs Knights Stats & Trends
Bulldogs vs Knights Head To Head
Canterbury Bulldogs Form Analysis
Canterbury Bulldogs Team News
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
Newcastle Knights Team News

Sharpe's return is huge for Newcastle, but I'm not sure the livewire five-eighth can break down this rock solid Bulldogs' defence on his own. Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Brown's absence was felt last week in the Knights' heavy defeat to the table-topping Warriors and they probably don't have enough points in them here to land the upset.

However, the Bulldogs remain far from convincing to open the season. They easily could have lost to the Dragons in Vegas and were again involved in a tight contest against the Raiders last week. Their attack still looks clunky as Matt Burton and Lachlan Galvin continue to try and improve their combination.

When in doubt, it's Galvin running to the line with a flat ball to Jacob Preston, who has emerged as one of the best hole-running backrowers in the competition. Preston has six tries in his last six games, so you've got to back him again here against a Knights side that leaked a couple of tries to forwards down their left side last week.

As for the main bets, take Under 48.5 total points and the Dogs to squeak out another narrow win at decent value with a 1-12 margin.

Bulldogs vs Knights Stats & Trends

Bulldogs have seen Under 48.5 points in 16 of their last 17 NRL games
Twelve of the last 13 meetings have seen Under 48.5 points
Bulldogs 2-0 to start the season, with both wins coming by four points or less
Knights have failed to score a try in their last two meetings vs Bulldogs
Jacob Preston has scored a try in both games in 2026 & has six in his last six appearances

Bulldogs vs Knights Head To Head

The Bulldogs have won the last three meetings between the teams, keeping the Knights tryless in the last two.

Year	Winner	Score	Venue
2025	Canterbury Bulldogs	20–0	Accor
2024	Canterbury Bulldogs	32–2	McD. Jones
2024	Canterbury Bulldogs	36–12	Accor
2023	Newcastle Knights	42–6	McD. Jones
2023	Newcastle Knights	66–0	Accor

Canterbury Bulldogs Form Analysis

It's been a workmanlike start to the season for the Dogs.

Can't argue with a 2-0 start, but they certainly haven't set the world on fire.

Canterbury held off the Dragons 15-14 in Vegas as captain Stephen Crichton struck the match-winning field goal, while they fought well in wet conditions last week in the nation's capital to take down Canberra 14-10.

Jacob Preston made it two tries from two games to open the season and is one of the form backrowers in the competition. Enari Tuala was also impressive defensively as he came into the side for Bronson Xerri.

Connor Tracey was immense at fullback as he made a match-saving tackle in the dying stages and also crossed for a four-pointer himself.

Canterbury Bulldogs Team News

Sitili Tupouniua moves to prop in place of Sam Hughes in the only change to the starting side that edged Canberra last week.

Canterbury Bulldogs Team List

1. Connor Tracey

2. Jacob Kiraz

3. Enari Tuala

4. Stephen Crichton

5. Marcelo Montoya

6. Matt Burton

7. Lachlan Galvin

8. Max King

9. Bailey Hayward

10. Sitili Tupouniua

11. Viliame Kikau

12. Jacob Preston

13. Jaeman Salmon

Interchange

14. Kurt Mann

15. Josh Curran

16. Lipoi Hopoi

17. Sean O’Sullivan

Reserves

19. Jonathan Sua

20. Fletcher Baker

21. Logan Spinks

22. Jack Underhill

23. Bronson Xerri

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis

It was a promising start to the season for the Knights, but injuries to a pair of attacking stars have put a dampener on things.

After beating the Cowboys in Vegas, the Knights managed to topple Manly at Brookie - but the win came at a cost, with Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Brown both succumbing to injuries that will sideline them both for at least the next month.

Their absence was noticeable last week as the Knights struggled to create in a heavy 38-12 defeat to the Warriors at home.

Tyson Gamble and Sandon Smith tried hard, but just couldn't orchestrate anything in the opposition 20.

Newcastle Knights Team News

Huge boost for Newcastle as Fletcher Sharpe returns from the knee injury he suffered in Vegas.

Tyson Frizell shifts to prop in place of the suspended Trey Mooney, with Cody Hopwood joining the bench.

Newcastle Knights Team List

1. Fletcher Hunt

2. Dominic Young

3. Dane Gagai

4. Bradman Best

5. Greg Marzhew

6. Fletcher Sharpe

7. Sandon Smith

8. Jacob Saifiti

9. Phoenix Crossland

10. Tyson Frizell

11. Dylan Lucas

12. Jermaine McEwen

13. Mathew Croker

Interchange

14. Thomas Cant

15. Pasami Saulo

16. Cody Hopwood

17. Francis Manuleleua

Reserves

18. Tyson Gamble

19. Harrison Graham

20. Elijah Leaumoana

21. James Schiller

22. Wilson De Courcey

Verdict

Canterbury Bulldogs v Newcastle Knights

The Bulldogs' strong defence should keep this total Under 48.5 points as Jacob Preston looks for his seventh try in as many appearances. Good value on Dogs 1-12 as they continue to edge out tight games.

Under 48.5

Total Points

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