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Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights NRL Round 4 Tips & Prediction - Minimal points as Dogs chase 3-0 start
In NRL Round 4, the Canterbury Bulldogs are looking to secure their third win in succession, facing the Newcastle Knights, who will benefit from Fletcher Sharpe's return. Despite Sharpe's presence, the Knights face an uphill battle due to recent injuries and past struggles, particularly against the Bulldogs' staunch defence. While the Bulldogs' offence is yet to hit top gear, Jacob Preston’s stellar form offers optimism. Betting opportunities include backing the Bulldogs for a narrow 1-12 point victory and focusing on an under 48.5 total points line.
- Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights predictions for Saturday's NRL R4 game
- Dogs winning tight games with strong defence to open season
- Knights have failed to score a try in last two games vs Bulldogs; Ponga & Brown still out
- Prediction: Under 48.5 total points with value in Dogs prevailing 1-12
- Bank on the Galvon/Preston combination to lead to another four-pointer
- The game is scheduled for kick off at 3.00pm AEDT on Saturday March 28
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights NRL Round 4 Tips & Prediction
The Bulldogs are tipped to make it three wins from three to launch the season as the Knights welcome back Fletcher Sharpe from injury.
Sharpe's return is huge for Newcastle, but I'm not sure the livewire five-eighth can break down this rock solid Bulldogs' defence on his own. Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Brown's absence was felt last week in the Knights' heavy defeat to the table-topping Warriors and they probably don't have enough points in them here to land the upset.
However, the Bulldogs remain far from convincing to open the season. They easily could have lost to the Dragons in Vegas and were again involved in a tight contest against the Raiders last week. Their attack still looks clunky as Matt Burton and Lachlan Galvin continue to try and improve their combination.
When in doubt, it's Galvin running to the line with a flat ball to Jacob Preston, who has emerged as one of the best hole-running backrowers in the competition. Preston has six tries in his last six games, so you've got to back him again here against a Knights side that leaked a couple of tries to forwards down their left side last week.
As for the main bets, take Under 48.5 total points and the Dogs to squeak out another narrow win at decent value with a 1-12 margin.
Bulldogs vs Knights Stats & Trends
- Bulldogs have seen Under 48.5 points in 16 of their last 17 NRL games
- Twelve of the last 13 meetings have seen Under 48.5 points
- Bulldogs 2-0 to start the season, with both wins coming by four points or less
- Knights have failed to score a try in their last two meetings vs Bulldogs
- Jacob Preston has scored a try in both games in 2026 & has six in his last six appearances
Bulldogs vs Knights Head To Head
The Bulldogs have won the last three meetings between the teams, keeping the Knights tryless in the last two.
| Year | Winner | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Canterbury Bulldogs | 20–0 | Accor |
| 2024 | Canterbury Bulldogs | 32–2 | McD. Jones |
| 2024 | Canterbury Bulldogs | 36–12 | Accor |
| 2023 | Newcastle Knights | 42–6 | McD. Jones |
| 2023 | Newcastle Knights | 66–0 | Accor |
Canterbury Bulldogs Form Analysis
It's been a workmanlike start to the season for the Dogs.
Can't argue with a 2-0 start, but they certainly haven't set the world on fire.
Canterbury held off the Dragons 15-14 in Vegas as captain Stephen Crichton struck the match-winning field goal, while they fought well in wet conditions last week in the nation's capital to take down Canberra 14-10.
Jacob Preston made it two tries from two games to open the season and is one of the form backrowers in the competition. Enari Tuala was also impressive defensively as he came into the side for Bronson Xerri.
Connor Tracey was immense at fullback as he made a match-saving tackle in the dying stages and also crossed for a four-pointer himself.
Canterbury Bulldogs Team News
Sitili Tupouniua moves to prop in place of Sam Hughes in the only change to the starting side that edged Canberra last week.
Reserves
Canterbury Bulldogs Team List
1. Connor Tracey
2. Jacob Kiraz
3. Enari Tuala
4. Stephen Crichton
5. Marcelo Montoya
6. Matt Burton
7. Lachlan Galvin
8. Max King
9. Bailey Hayward
10. Sitili Tupouniua
11. Viliame Kikau
12. Jacob Preston
13. Jaeman Salmon
Interchange
14. Kurt Mann
15. Josh Curran
16. Lipoi Hopoi
17. Sean O’Sullivan
Reserves
19. Jonathan Sua
20. Fletcher Baker
21. Logan Spinks
22. Jack Underhill
23. Bronson Xerri
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
It was a promising start to the season for the Knights, but injuries to a pair of attacking stars have put a dampener on things.
After beating the Cowboys in Vegas, the Knights managed to topple Manly at Brookie - but the win came at a cost, with Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Brown both succumbing to injuries that will sideline them both for at least the next month.
Their absence was noticeable last week as the Knights struggled to create in a heavy 38-12 defeat to the Warriors at home.
Tyson Gamble and Sandon Smith tried hard, but just couldn't orchestrate anything in the opposition 20.
Newcastle Knights Team News
Huge boost for Newcastle as Fletcher Sharpe returns from the knee injury he suffered in Vegas.
Tyson Frizell shifts to prop in place of the suspended Trey Mooney, with Cody Hopwood joining the bench.
Newcastle Knights Team List
1. Fletcher Hunt
2. Dominic Young
3. Dane Gagai
4. Bradman Best
5. Greg Marzhew
6. Fletcher Sharpe
7. Sandon Smith
8. Jacob Saifiti
9. Phoenix Crossland
10. Tyson Frizell
11. Dylan Lucas
12. Jermaine McEwen
13. Mathew Croker
Interchange
14. Thomas Cant
15. Pasami Saulo
16. Cody Hopwood
17. Francis Manuleleua
Reserves
18. Tyson Gamble
19. Harrison Graham
20. Elijah Leaumoana
21. James Schiller
22. Wilson De Courcey
Verdict
The Bulldogs' strong defence should keep this total Under 48.5 points as Jacob Preston looks for his seventh try in as many appearances. Good value on Dogs 1-12 as they continue to edge out tight games.
Under 48.5
Total Points
$1.75 - 3 Units
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Bulldogs 1-12
Margin
$3.20 - 2 Units
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Jacob Preston
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