Pakistan vs Australia, 3rd ODI 2026 - Expert Prediction

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Wed 03 Jun 2026 10:30

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Australia reversed the series momentum with improved batting and bowling.
Pakistan’s top order remains vulnerable; Shadab Khan’s runs keep him in the XI.
Experts recommend backing Australia to win, highlighting betting value on player props.

Team Australia celebrates a wicket. (Photo by Sameer Ali/Getty Images)

Pakistan vs Australia, 3rd ODI 2026 - Expert Prediction

Australia have done it the hard way and now they have a series on the line. After being outclassed in Rawalpindi, this patched-up touring side found something in Lahore and now Thursday's decider is everything.

Pakistan vs Australia, 3rd ODI 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Pakistan Form Analysis
Australia Form Analysis

The transformation from Game 1 to Game 2 was significant. Pakistan bowled Australia out for 200 in the opener with eight wickets to spin. In the second match Australia posted 231 from 50 overs on the same type of surface and then bowled Pakistan out for 190. The conditions haven't changed, Australia just adapted. Nathan Ellis was outstanding, finishing with 4-33 from nine overs on a pitch that was slow and grippy, and Matt Short's three wickets were a genuine bonus. Australia's bowlers found a way and now they go into a decider as a side with momentum.

Pakistan have serious questions to answer heading into Thursday. Babar Azam contributed 69 in a winning chase, then 16 in a collapse mirroring his form in the BBL. The top order has been brittle when the ball does anything, with Farhan and Sadaqat both falling early in both matches. Shadab Khan's 71 was defiant but he was expensive with the ball across both games and his place in the XI was only saved by that lower-order contribution. The surface continues to trouble Pakistan's batters almost as much as the visitors.

Australia's batting has found its rhythm. Inglis and Green ground out crucial fifties in Game 2 when Australia were 3-51 and in real danger. Renshaw continues to be the most fluent batter in the series and 19-year-old Oli Peake showed composure well beyond his years, hitting vital late sixes to push Australia to 231. The depth in Australia's batting is holding up despite the absence of their biggest names.

The value here is real. Australia at $2.15 as the underdog in a series decider they've earned the right to win is a genuine edge. The same surface, the same bowlers, and a side that knows exactly what is required. Ellis has now removed Babar three times in five ODIs and will target him again. Short is bowling with confidence. Pakistan need to find something they haven't shown consistently across the first two games and do it in a decider.

Take Australia to win at $2.15. The All Aussie Multi - Australia win, Short, Carey and Inglis all scoring 10+ runs, Ellis 2+ wickets, is the play of the series at the boosted $9 on bet365. Ghazi Ghori over 2.5 fours at $2 is the value side bet given his attacking intent through both games.

Nathan Ellis has taken 4-33 and was economical across both matches, has dismissed Babar Azam three times in five ODIs, and is perfectly suited to these slow, grippy surfaces.
Australia recovered from 3-51 to post 231 in Game 2, the batting depth is holding up and Renshaw, Peake and Green all have runs and confidence going into Thursday.
Matt Short took 3-36 in Game 2 and his part-time spin has become a genuine weapon on these surfaces, giving Australia an extra bowling option that Pakistan simply don't have an answer for.
Ghazi Ghori hit five fours in a 48-ball 37 in Game 2 and has shown attacking intent in both innings despite Pakistan's top-order struggles setting him difficult positions to bat from.

Head to Head

The series is locked at 1-1 with Pakistan taking the first ODI by five wickets in Rawalpindi and Australia levelling in Lahore by 41 runs. Game 2 was played at the Gaddafi Stadium, Thursday's decider is at the same venue. Australia have not won an ODI series in Pakistan since 1998 but this is their best chance in a generation to change that.

Pakistan Form Analysis

Pakistan were 78-6 in the 17th over in Game 2 and never truly recovered. The top order failed again, Sadaqat went for 0 off 1 ball, Farhan for 3, Babar for 16 and it left Shadab Khan to drag them to respectability with 71 off 104 balls. Shadab's knock was gritty but Pakistan needed 232 and were bowled out for 190.

Shaheen Afridi bowled well with 3-36 from eight overs and Minhas was again economical at 2-27, but the batting fragility is a serious concern. Pakistan are likely to be unchanged for the decider with Shadab's runs keeping him in the side despite his expensive bowling returns.

Australia Form Analysis

Australia's Game 2 performance was exactly what a depleted touring side needed. Inglis made 51 off 74 balls at number three when the top order fell cheaply, Green grinded out 53 off 92 balls in tough conditions and both showed the kind of application the surface demands. Renshaw's run-a-ball 43 and Peake's 31 off 32 late in the innings pushed Australia to a total Pakistan could never quite chase down.

Ellis was the difference with the ball with four wickets, nine overs and 33 runs while Short's three wickets were a genuine bonus. Adam Zampa, who missed Game 1 with a neck issue, returns a key wicket-taking option. Labuschagne remains under pressure after scores of 0 and 5 but may keep his place for Thursday.

Verdict

Pakistan v Australia 3rd ODI

Take Australia to win at $2.15. The All Aussie Multi - Australia win, Short, Carey and Inglis all scoring 10+ runs, Ellis 2+ wickets, is the play of the series at the boosted $9 on bet365. Ghazi Ghori over 2.5 fours at $2 is the value side bet given his attacking intent through both games.