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Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Round 10 Tips - Demons a tough beat for Hawks

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Fri 15 May 2026 09:15

Jeremy Darke 15 May 2026

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The game will be played at MCG on Saturday, 16th May, with the bounce at 4:15 PM (AEST)
Demons tipped to cover 19.5-point start vs. Hawks at the MCG
Low-scoring game expected—under 180.5 points favoured
Jacob van Rooyen set for 2+ goals; Dees primed for top 6 leap

Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Round 10 Tips

Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 10 2026 - Expert Prediction

The Dees will take their chance to mix it with the big boys and keep things tight against Hawthorn at the MCG on Saturday afternoon.

Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 10 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks Team List & News
Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 10 FAQ’s

Hawthorn are coming off an emotional loss to the Dockers where they held the victory in one hand and let it slip late in the fourth quarter. The question now will be if they can respond and show the maturity that their fans are beginning to expect from their team of young flashers.

The Demons are one of the stories of the 2026 season and will have a chance to prove that they deserve to be a serious topic in the finals conversation. A victory here would see them leap frog the Hawks and move into the top six after 10 completed rounds.

Picking Melbourne to pip the Hawthorn would be a big call, although there might slide a late unit on it I am much more comfortable with the 19.5 point start that you can get. Hawthorn will want to control a lot of the ball and avoid Melbourne playing direct through the corridor. Expect the Hawks to slow the scoring through periods of this match which will see the under 180.5 hit on the game total.

The Demons will see patches of possession inside 50 and Jacob van Rooyen will be the big target kicking 17 goals so far in 2026. If van Rooyen can find his stature early he could very well kick a bag.

Melbourne have won all 5 of their matches at the MCG in 2026.
7 of the last 10 matches between the Hawks and Demons has gone under the game total.
6 of the last 7 Hawks games have gone under the game total.
Jacob Van Rooyen has kicked 10 goals in his last 4 matches.

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Head to Head Stats

The Hawks won both contests against Melbourne last season with only a behind the difference in the two results. A Round 9 victory 91-56 and a Round 23 win 92-56.

The last 5 head to head clashes have gone under the game total.

Melbourne Demons Form Analysis

The Demons continue to stay in touch with the top teams in the comp with 24 points and six wins, equal to Brisbane in fourth.

It was a decent performance from Melbourne in their 99-67 victory over West Coast last weekend, getting in control of the match early and managing a 20+ margin through the final three quarters. Jacob van Rooyen had a career day with 5 goals with only himself and Paddy Cross kicking multiple goals for the Dees.

Recruit Jack Steele had another 25+ disposal match finishing with 26 touches for the day as he continues to be a prize pick for the Demons in 2026 averaging 24.3 disposals per game along with 4.6 inside 50s and 5.9 clearances per game.

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis

After leading for the majority of the second and third quarter, the Hawks lacked the maturity and experience to close out the match despite leading by 22 points at 15:02 in the third term. The Dockers finished with a wet sail, kicking the last 5 majors of the match to beat Hawthorn 88-73.

Jack Gunston kicked 5 goals and Nick Watson had three by the end of the first half, however it was the Dockers that adjusted best at the break and shut down the Hawks firepower, who then had no answers.

It is another tight contest that has been lost by the Hawks. Hawthorn have all the tools and can win close ones themselves, but you do not back them in the fourth quarter in an arm wrestle with any real confidence.

Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks Team List & News

Melbourne Demons Team News

Daniel Turner and Trent Rivers return, replacing Caleb Windsor and Aidan Moniz-Wakefield.

Hawthorn Hawks Team News

Tom Barrass, Conor Nash and Jack Gunston are all sidelined through injury. Henry Hustwaite, Connor Dear, Harry Morrison and Finn Maginness return.

Narrm	POS	Hawthorn
J. Bowey, J. Lever, C. Jiath	B	J. Sicily, J. Battle, J. Impey
B. Howes, H. Petty, M. Jefferson	HB	K. Amon, B. Hardwick, B. Ryan
H. Sharp, H. Langford, K. Tholstrup	C	M. D’Ambrosio, H. Hustwaite, J. Weddle
E. Langdon, M. Heath, K. Pickett	HF	D. Moore, C. Dear, M. Ramsden
L. Pickett, J. van Rooyen, B. Fritsch	F	C. Macdonald, M. Lewis, N. Watson
M. Gawn, J. Steele, K. Chandler	FOLL	L. Meek, J. Newcombe, C. Mackenzie
D. Turner, B. Laurie, T. Rivers, T. Sparrow, P. Cross	I/C	H. Morrison, J. Ward, N. Reeves, F. Maginness, J. Ginnivan

Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 10 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 10?

You can watch the Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 10 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 10?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 10 game check the AFL website or the official Melbourne Demons site.

Verdict

Melbourne Demons v Hawthorn

Jacob van Rooyen will kick 2+ as the Demons cover as the underdog against the Hawks in a match that has less than 180.5 points.

Melbourne +19.5

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Under 180.5

Game Total

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Jacob van Rooyen

2+ Goals

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