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St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers AFL Round 10 Tips - The Tigers the dog play

Jeremy Darke

Editor

Last updated: Fri 15 May 2026 09:18

Jeremy Darke 15 May 2026

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The game will be played at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, 17th May, with the bounce at 3:15 PM (AEST)
Richmond predicted to cover the spread in a low-scoring match.
St Kilda’s Wanganeen-Milera absent, impacting their ball movement.
Jack Ross expected to collect 25+ disposals for Richmond.

St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers AFL Round 10 Tips

St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers, Round 10 2026 - Expert Prediction

Richmond shapes as one of the more appealing underdog plays of Round 10, with the Tigers beginning to show genuine improvement despite sitting at the bottom of the ladder.

St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers, Round 10 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
St Kilda Saints Form Analysis
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers Team List & News
St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2026 Round 10 FAQ’s

St Kilda deserves favouritism at Marvel Stadium and has dominated this matchup in recent years, but the current line looks slightly inflated given the circumstances heading into this game. The Saints are expected to be without Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera again after he was a late withdrawal against Gold Coast, and his absence significantly impacts St Kilda’s ball movement and transition play.

Wanganeen-Milera has become the Saints’ most important distributor off half-back, regularly setting up scoring chains through his kicking and decision-making. Without him, St Kilda looked far less composed once Gold Coast increased the pressure last week.

Richmond, meanwhile, has quietly become far more competitive over the past month. The Tigers led Adelaide at half-time last round, pushed West Coast deep into the second half the week before, and continue to play with strong effort despite an injury-hit list and inexperienced lineup.

The Tigers have also consistently performed well against the line in this matchup, covering in six of the last eight meetings against St Kilda. Even in games where the Saints have controlled large stretches, Richmond has often found ways to keep margins manageable.

The under also appeals with Richmond unlikely to open the game up offensively and St Kilda potentially missing some attacking fluency without Wanganeen-Milera driving transition from defence.

Richmond have covered the line in six of the last eight meetings with St Kilda.
The Under has hit in 4 of the last 5 matches between St. Kilda and Richmond
The Tigers are averaging just 72.4 points across their last five matches.
Jack Ross has recorded 25+ disposals in four straight games.

Head to Head Stats

St Kilda have won the last 5 matches against Richmond. The latest was a 4 point victory in Round 22 last season where the Saints stole back the match in the final quarter.

4 of the last 5 matches have gone under the game total.

St Kilda Saints Form Analysis

St Kilda enter Round 10 with a 4-5 record after splitting their last five games, winning three and losing two.

The Saints have shown a high ceiling during that stretch, including a massive 101-point win over West Coast and a dominant victory over Carlton, but consistency remains an issue. Their recent 29-point loss to Gold Coast highlighted some of the flaws that continue to appear against stronger opposition.

St Kilda started brilliantly against the Suns, kicking five goals to one in the opening quarter before the game completely shifted. Once Gold Coast increased its pressure and began controlling transition, the Saints struggled to maintain possession and repeatedly turned the ball over in dangerous areas.

The concern for St Kilda is whether they can generate enough clean attacking ball movement without Wanganeen-Milera orchestrating play from half-back.

Richmond Tigers Form Analysis

Richmond’s 1-8 record does not fully reflect the improvement the Tigers have shown over the past month.

The Tigers remain one of the youngest and least experienced sides in the competition, but their effort level and contest work has noticeably lifted compared to the opening rounds of the season.

Last week’s loss to Adelaide was another example. Richmond led at half-time after taking the game on aggressively through the corridor and applying strong forward pressure before Adelaide’s midfield class eventually overwhelmed them in the second half.

Tom Lynch found form inside 50 and kicked three goals against the Crows, while Tim Taranto and Jack Ross continue to drive the midfield. Ross, in particular, has found strong consistency around stoppages and accumulation, recording 25+ disposals in four consecutive matches.

St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers Team List & News

St Kilda Saints Team News

Jack Higgins returns as one of three inclusions for the Saints. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera will also miss this matchup against the Tigers.

Richmond Tigers Team News

Tom Brown and Kane McAuliffe are both sidelined through injury, while Liam Fawcett and Kaleb Smith are among the inclusions.

Euro-Yroke	POS	Richmond
J. Silvagni, C. Wilkie, A. Caminiti	B	N. Broad, B. Miller, C. Gray
J. Carroll, B. Hill, L. O’Connell	HB	N. Vlastuin, J. Short, S. Grlj
M. Windhager, M. Hall, D. Wilson	C	P. Retschko, T. Taranto, J. Trezise
H. Garcia, M. Phillipou, J. Higgins	HF	T. Sonsie, S. Campbell, S. Green
R. Byrnes, C. Sharman, D. Howard	F	J. Faull, T. Lynch, L. Fawcett
T. De Koning, S. Flanders, J. Sinclair	FOLL	N. Balta, J. Ross, S. Cumming
J. Macrae, M. Owens, L. Stocker, R. Marshall, M. Wood	I/C	O. Hayes-Brown, T. Burton, M. Lefau, K. Smith, N. Roberts-Thomson

St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2026 Round 10 FAQ’s

How to watch St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2026 Round 10?

You can watch the St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2026 Round 10 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2026 Round 10?

To buy tickets to the St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2026 Round 10 game check the AFL website or the official St Kilda Saints site.

Verdict

St Kilda Saints v Richmond Tigers

Richmond will cover in a low-scoring match that stays under the game total of 178.5. Jack Ross will collect another 25+ disposals.

Richmond +41.5

Handicap/Line

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