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Jesse’s AFL Round 10 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Jesse Mclure

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Last updated: Tue 12 May 2026 10:47

Jesse Mclure 12 May 2026

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Jesse predicts all AFL Round 10 games, including margins.
Brisbane, Sydney, St Kilda, and GWS tipped for big wins.
Expect upsets: look out for Carlton and Hawthorn victories!

Jesse from True Footy's Just the Tips.

AFL Round 10 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Round 10 is stacked with heavyweight clashes, finals implications and genuine upset potential.

AFL Round 10 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match
Brisbane vs Geelong Prediction
Sydney vs Collingwood Prediction
Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide Prediction
Adelaide vs North Melbourne Prediction
Melbourne vs Hawthorn Prediction
Carlton vs Western Bulldogs Prediction
Essendon vs Fremantle Prediction
St Kilda vs Richmond Prediction
West Coast vs GWS Giants Prediction

The top teams are beginning to separate from the pack, but several contenders still have question marks hanging over them. With a Grand Final rematch, a possible coaching bounce at Carlton and a blockbuster in Perth, this shapes as one of the biggest rounds of the AFL season so far.

Here are Jesse’s tips and predicted margins for every AFL Round 10 game.

Brisbane vs Geelong Prediction

The Grand Final rematch headlines the round, with both sides coming into this clash in strong form. Brisbane continue to look dominant at the Gabba, with Lachie Neale and Zac Bailey driving their midfield and forward pressure.

Geelong looked closer to their best against Collingwood, with Tom Stewart and Jeremy Cameron both influential, but the short turnaround after a five-day break could hurt them late.

Jesse’s Tip: Brisbane Lions by 10 points

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Sydney vs Collingwood Prediction

Sydney remain the benchmark of the competition, with Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney leading one of the AFL’s most dangerous attacking systems.

Collingwood continue to battle hard, but without Scott Pendlebury their midfield structure takes a hit. Nick Daicos will need a huge performance to keep the Magpies competitive at the SCG.

Jesse’s Tip: Sydney Swans by 28 points

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Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide Prediction

Gold Coast still aren’t playing to their full potential, but the midfield talent of Christian Petracca, Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson gives them enormous upside.

Port Adelaide are playing much better football than their record suggests, with Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis driving recent improvement. Darwin remains a difficult trip though, and the Suns’ record there is hard to ignore.

Jesse’s Tip: Gold Coast Suns by 24 points

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Adelaide vs North Melbourne Prediction

North Melbourne continue to show genuine growth, with Luke Davies-Uniacke and their experienced recruits helping lift their competitiveness against top sides.

Adelaide have been shaky but remain difficult to beat at Adelaide Oval. Jordan Dawson’s influence around the ball and the Crows’ home-ground advantage may prove decisive in a tight game.

Jesse’s Tip: Adelaide Crows by 9 points

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Melbourne vs Hawthorn Prediction

This could easily be the game of the round. Melbourne’s best football at the MCG has been elite, with Kozzy Pickett and Max Gawn central to their fast ball movement and scoring power.

Hawthorn remain one of the competition’s most complete teams despite last week’s loss, with Jai Newcombe and Dylan Moore continuing to drive their system. In a close contest, the Hawks may just hold on.

Jesse’s Tip: Hawthorn by 9 points

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Carlton vs Western Bulldogs Prediction

Carlton enter a new era following Michael Voss stepping down, and the possibility of a “new coach bounce” makes this matchup fascinating.

Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh have still been competitive despite the Blues’ poor record, while the Bulldogs continue to look vulnerable despite Marcus Bontempelli’s outstanding form. This feels like the upset play of the round.

Jesse’s Tip: Carlton by 8 points

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Essendon vs Fremantle Prediction

Essendon have shown patches of strong football recently and remain capable of making games messy for opponents.

Fremantle, however, continue to look like one of the AFL’s most composed sides. Caleb Serong, Hayden Young and Shai Bolton are all firing, and the Dockers’ ability to control games late should be too much.

Jesse’s Tip: Fremantle by 32 points

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St Kilda vs Richmond Prediction

St Kilda were brought back to earth slightly last week but still possess enough firepower through Jack Sinclair and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera to control this game.

Richmond continue to compete hard despite a growing injury list, with Tim Taranto and Noah Balta leading the way. But over four quarters, the Saints should pull away.

Jesse’s Tip: St Kilda by 45 points

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West Coast vs GWS Giants Prediction

West Coast showed slight improvement last week, particularly with their effort after quarter time, but skill execution and composure remain major issues.

GWS haven’t been fully convincing either, though their ball movement through players like Brent Daniels and Toby Bedford can expose weaker defensive sides quickly.

Jesse’s Tip: GWS Giants by 45 points