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Carlton Blues vs Western Bulldogs AFL Round 10 Tips - Blues to Keep it Close and Cover

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Thu 14 May 2026 12:41

Ryan Tucker 14 May 2026

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Tim English (Bulldogs) ruled out, boosting Carlton's midfield advantage.
Carlton recommended to cover +13.5 and surpass 87.5 points.
Best player props: Mitch McGovern 2+ goals, Patrick Cripps 25+ disposals.
The game will be played at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, 16th May, with the bounce at 7:35 PM (AEDT)

Expired

Carlton Blues vs Western Bulldogs

Carlton Blues vs Western Bulldogs, Round 10 2026 - Expert Prediction

Michael Voss is gone and the Blues have a point to prove. The Bulldogs are short-handed and coming off a performance that flattered to deceive. Carlton to cover is the play.

Carlton Blues vs Western Bulldogs, Round 10 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Western Bulldogs Form Analysis
Carlton Blues vs Western Bulldogs Team List & News

Tim English in concussion protocols is the headline. The Bulldogs have struggled all season when their ruck has been unavailable and his absence fundamentally alters their ability to generate first use out of the middle. Carlton's Contested Possession advantage of +5.3 on the season becomes even more meaningful against a makeshift ruck setup, and with Patrick Cripps back to his best with 32 Disposals, nine Clearances and a goal against Brisbane, the Blues have the engine to exploit it.

The model has the Bulldogs by 16.6 pts against a market line of 13.5. That's a notable gap but the model doesn't account for English's concussion or the emotional reset of a coaching change. Carlton averaged 83.2 pts over their last five games but the Dogs are conceding 95.4 on defence and have lost four of their last five by an average of 38.2 pts. The Bulldogs are not the force they were and their attack rating of +7.3 is built on their best performances. Against a Blues side with fresh legs, a new coach and something to play for, the cover at +13.5 has genuine value.

Carlton are scoring 80.3 pts per game on a miserable run but their Points from Stoppage of 38.3 is actually a strength and the Dogs concede 36.9 from that avenue. The Blues' Inside 50s count of 51.0 against the Dogs' defensive concession of 54.4 means they will generate enough to stay in the game. The Bulldogs' Scores / Inside 50 of 49.8 and their anemic scoring average of 71.2 over the last five games tells you this won't be a blowout regardless of the line.

Take Carlton to cover +13.5 and the Blues over 87.5 team total. Mitch McGovern 2+ goals and Patrick Cripps 25+ Disposals are the top player props.

Tim English is out with concussion, directly undermining the Bulldogs' clearance and contested possession output against a Carlton side that wins Contested Possession by +5.3 per game.
The Bulldogs have averaged just 71.2 pts over their last five games and lost four of those five, including by 12, 66, 75 and 40 pts respectively.
Carlton have closed the gap significantly in second halves all season, outscoring Brisbane by six goals either side of the last change last week despite a first-half collapse.
Carlton hold a Disposals advantage of +13.2 in this matchup and win Intercepts by -0.4, marginal edges that compound over four quarters against a depleted Dogs midfield.

Head to Head Stats

The Bulldogs hold a 7-3 record in the last 10 meetings and a 15-7 advantage at Marvel Stadium. Carlton have lost the last three clashes by 8 pts, 14 pts and 20 pts respectively, averaging -14.0 pts per game. The most recent result was an 83-75 Dogs win in Round 3 2025.

Carlton Blues Form Analysis

Carlton were brave against Brisbane at the Gabba, conceding 49 pts early in the third quarter before outscoring the Lions six goals to two across the final two quarters to get within 11 pts. Patrick Cripps was outstanding with 32 Disposals, nine Clearances and a goal, while Harry McKay and Mitch McGovern both booted three majors in the fightback.

The Blues won contested possessions, clearances and Inside 50s in the second half. They didn't get the win but the response after Michael Voss's resignation mid-week makes this a different Carlton than the one that sleepwalked through the first eight rounds.

Western Bulldogs Form Analysis

The Bulldogs survived a Port Adelaide fightback to win by two points at Adelaide Oval, with Harvey Gallagher snapping the decisive point after the final siren. It was scrappy and unconvincing, with the Dogs conceding a lopsided inside-50 count of 59-35 to Port yet holding on through sheer desperation.

Marcus Bontempelli led the way with 30 Disposals and a goal but Tim English left the field with concussion in the final term and is in protocols this week. The Dogs have now won just one of their last five games and are a wounded outfit heading to Marvel Stadium.

Carlton Blues vs Western Bulldogs Team List & News

Carlton Blues Team News: Jack Ison will debut in Carlton’s first game following Michael Voss’ exit. Adam Saad misses through injury.

Western Bulldogs Team News: Tim English is sidelined again, but Rory Lobb returns alongside Lachlan Emmett and Sam Davidson.

Carlton	POS	Western Bulldogs
O. Florent, J. Weitering, N. Haynes	B	J. Busslinger, B. Khamis, M. Sellwood
N. Newman, H. Dean, B. Wilson	HB	C. Budarick, R. Lobb, B. Dale
M. Carroll, P. Cripps, Z. Williams	C	L. Bramble, M. Bontempelli, B. Williams
W. Hayward, M. McGovern, J. Ison	HF	R. Sanders, W. Lewis, A. Jones
B. Kemp, H. McKay, B. Ainsworth	F	J. Freijah, A. Naughton, R. West
M. Pittonet, A. Cerra, S. Walsh	FOLL	L. Emmett, M. Kennedy, E. Richards
L. Cowan, G. Hewett, J. Smith, O. Hollands, F. Evans	I/C	N. Coffield, S. Davidson, O. Baker, L. McNeil, C. Hynes

Verdict

Carlton v Western Bulldogs

Take Carlton to cover +13.5 and the Blues over 87.5 team total. Mitch McGovern 2+ goals and Patrick Cripps 25+ Disposals are the top player props.

Carlton +13.5

Line

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