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Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats AFL Round 10 Tips - Arm wrestle in store between 2025 Grand Finalists

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Wed 13 May 2026 09:57

Adam Cusworth 13 May 2026

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The game will be played at Gabba on Thursday, 14th May, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEDT)
Will the 2025 Grand Final loss haunt the Cats at the GABBA?
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Oliver Dempsey kicked seven goals in Geelong's two finals against Brisbane last year

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats, Round 10 2026 - Expert Prediction

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats, Round 10 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Brisbane Lions Team News
Geelong Cats Team News

This shapes as an absolute beauty with Brisbane and Geelong going head to head for the first time since the Lions’ 49-point win in the Grand Final last season.

Both sides come into this with a 6-3 win-loss record and the Cats will come to play after being blown away in the second half of the decider last season.

The Cats come off a 54-point victory over Collingwood last weekend and, aside from a shock loss to Port Adelaide, their past five weeks have been brutal on the opposition, posting four wins by more than 45 points.

Brisbane took their foot off the pedal late in their match against Carlton last weekend before eventually holding on to win by 11 points

The Lions have a knack of lifting when it counts as evidenced by the win in the decider last season, but can ill afford to take their foot off the peddle in a match that shapeas as a fascinating cat and mouse type match up.

Geelong are likely to send their renowned tagger, Oisin Mullin to one of the Lions key midfielders but stopping Brisbane is never as simple as shutting down one player.

Will Ashcroft loves this match-up and has had 30+ disposals in three of his past four against the Cats, including his Norm Smith Medal-winning display last season, while Lachie Neale turned it on in the second half of the Grand Final and is in some hot recent form.

Geelong’s midfield depth is equally impressive and the side that shows the greater composure and ability to break through each-other’s pressure, while converting opportunities, will be the one that comes up on top.

Interestingly, these two sides have had some free-flowing finals with high total points but home and away matches have been a different story. Look for patient ball movement and structured approach from the two sides that know each other well.

The total match points under is a very tempting play with the total points in the last nine home and away matches between the two sides averaging just 134/G. Geelong with the 13.5-point start also appeals in what shapes as a genuine arm wrestle with Ollie Dempsey a sneaky option in the goal markets after kicking seven goals across the two finals against Brisbane last season, while his elite running power shapes as a major weapon late in the game.

Geelong and Brisbane met twice in the finals, with the Cats taking out the Qualifying Final by 38 before the Lions won the Grand Final by 47.
Brisbane conceded 10 of the last 13 goals against Carlton last weekend.
Ollie Dempsey kicked seven goals in the two finals against Brisbane in 2025.
The past nine home and away matches between the two sides have had a total points average of just 134.

Head to Head Stats

Brisbane have won four of the past five between the two sides, including the 2025 Grand Final by 47 points, while they were nine-point winners the last time the two sides played at the GABBA, with that coming in Round 3 last season. The Lions have also won four of their past five against the Cats at the venue.

Notable player performances in recent head-to-heads come from;

Will Ashcroft (Lions) - 30+ disposals in three of his past four against Geelong
Dayne Zorko (Lions) - 25+ disposals in his past six, hitting the 30+ in three of those
Cam Rayner (Lions) - 10 goals in his past five matches against the Cats
Oliver Dempsey (Cats) - a total of seven goals in his last two against the Lions, coming in the finals series last year

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis

After a slow and injury-affected start to the season that saw them lose their first two matches, the Lions have since won six of their past seven and come in with a 6-3 win-loss record.

They were dominant in the first half against Carlton, opening up a lead of 48 points at half-time before taking their foot off the accelerator and holding on to win by 11 points.

Logan Morris (four goals), Charlie Cameron (two) and Kai Lohmann (two) continued their good work up forward, while Lachie Neale picked up a game-high 33 disposals. Neale is averaging 31 disposals this season and has had 30+ in four of his past five matches. Morris has kicked four goals in each of his past two outings, while Cameron has kicked 2+ in his past four.

The Lions head to the GABBA for the fifth time this season and have won three of their four matches at their home ground in 2026.

Geelong Cats Form Analysis

Geelong also come in with a 6-3 record and had a tough month to start the season, but have won four of their past five, with those victories coming by more than 40 points. Sandwiched in between those wins was the shock loss to Port Adelaide three weeks ago.

They responded to that with a 49-point win over North Melbourne before knocking over Collingwood last week by 54. That match was relatively even until half-time, but Geelong came home with an 11 goals to four second half. Ollie Henry booted four goals, while Jeremy Cameron added one to take his season tally to 24.

Jeremy Cameron booted another goal to take his season tally to 24 from seven matches. After a slow start to the season, he has kicked 19 goals in his past four, hitting 3+ in all of those.

Bailey Smith had 40 disposals against Collingwood and has had 30+ in six of his past seven, while Max Holmes had 33 against the Magpies. Holmes has hit 25+ in every game this season.

Geelong’s key strength usually lies in a highly structured, system-driven game built around contest dominance and controlled ball movement, while they have a renowned ability to adapt to whatever situation each match brings.

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats Team List & News

Brisbane Lions Team News

Premiership duo Sam Marshall and Darcy Gardiner return for the Lions. Lincoln McCarthy is sidelined with injury, while Darragh Joyce has been omitted.

Geelong Cats Team News

There were no injuries for Geelong to come out of the win over Collingwood. Gryan Miers, Mark Blicavs, Jack Henry and Mitch Edwards all return in a major boost. Rhys Stanley, Jake Kolodjashnij, James Worpel and Jack Bowes have all been managed.

Brisbane Lions	POS	Geelong Cats
K. Coleman, H. Andrews, R. Lester	B	M. O’Connor, C. O’Sullivan, T. Stewart
D. Wilmot, J. Fletcher, D. Zorko	HB	L. Humphries, Z. Guthrie, J. Henry
H. McCluggage, W. Ashcroft, L. Ashcroft	C	T. Bruhn, B. Smith, O. Dempsey
C. Cameron, C. Curtin, Z. Bailey	HF	J. Cameron, S. Mannagh, B. Close
S. Draper, C. Rayner, L. Morris	F	P. Dangerfield, S. Neale, J. Martin
D. Fort, J. Dunkley, L. Neale	FOLL	M. Edwards, M. Holmes, O. Mullin
K. Lohmann, S. Marshall, C. McKenna, D. Gardiner, B. Reville	I/C	S. De Koning, T. Atkins, G. Miers, M. Blicavs, O. Henry

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 10 FAQ’s

How to watch Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 10?

You can watch the Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 10 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 10?

To buy tickets to the Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 10 game check the AFL website or the official Brisbane Lions site.

Verdict

Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats

Take the total points under with Geelong to stick under the line. Ollie Dempsey value for 2+ goals

Geelong +14.5

Line

$1.92 - 3 Units

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Under 185.5

O/U

$1.91 - 2 Units

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Oliver Dempsey

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