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Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints AFL Round 23 Tips - Saints to march on as Bombers’ struggles continue at Marvel

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 14 Aug 2025 10:34

Adam Cusworth 14 Aug 2025

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Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints expert predictions for Friday’s Round 23 AFL game
The game will be played at Marvel Stadium, with the bounce at 7:20 PM (AEST)
Can Essendon snap their losing streak or will St Kilda’s gritty form prove too strong?
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints AFL Round 23 Tips

Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints, Round 23 2025 - Expert Prediction

St Kilda will make it four wins on the trot when they take on Essendon in Thursday night footy.

The Saints love a tight scrap and come off a four-point victory over Richmond last weekend, taking their season win-loss record to 8-13.

Essendon have lost 10 in a row and are 6-15. The Bombers come off a 44-point loss to 2nd placed Geelong, a respectable effort, given the toll that injuries have taken on the Bombers list.

The Bombers ongoing injury crisis and lack of cohesion in the forward half make them vulnerable again this week, particularly against a St Kilda outfit that thrives in close contests.

The Saints have lacked the killer instinct up forward but with Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Jack Sinclair in white hot form, they should enjoy enough opportunities to deny the Bombers. Take them in the 1-39 point range with the All-Australian smoky, Jack Higgins, to kick multiple goals, while Sinclair looks solid for 30+ disposals.

St Kilda have won their past three, Essendon have lost their past 10.
12 of St Kilda’s past 13 matches have been decided by 39.5 points or less
Jack Sinclair has had 30+ disposals in three of his past four matches
Jack Higgins has kicked 14 goals from his past five matches against the Dons

Head to Head

The two sides have not met since Round 20 last season and it was St Kilda by 53 points. Cooper Sharman snagged three goals, while Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera picked up 31 disposals.

Jack Sinclair has had 25+ disposals in his past four matches against the Bombers. Essendon’s Zach Merrett has averaged 28 disposals from his past five. Jack Higgins has kicked 14 goals from his past five matches against Essendon.

Essendon Bombers Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
0-5	2-3	1-4

Essendon have lost their past 10 matches with six of the past eight having gone over the 39.5 margin. They were competitive against Sydney a fortnight ago when going down by 14 and were within 21 points of Geelong in the last quarter last weekend.

Connection from their midfield to their forwards has been a bit of an issue, resulting in low scoreboard impact, averaging just 52 points per game in the past five rounds. The mid-season rookie draftee, Liam McMahon, booted four goals last weekend and has kicked eight from his four career matches.

Archie Roberts picked up a team-high 33 disposals against the Cats, while their skipper, Zach Merrett, had 29. Merrett has had 25+ in five of his past six, reaching 30+ in three of those, while he had 29 in another.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
7-13	7-13	6-5	0-9

Essendon Bombers Team News

Archer May rolled his ankle in the loss to Geelong and will be assessed at training. Zach Merrett is set to miss with a broken hand The Bombers have 16 players on the injury list and most of those are done for the season.

Essendon Bombers Team List

B: A.McGrath - C, J.Laverde, J.Nguyen

HB: M.Redman, L.Blakiston, A.Roberts

C: X.Duursma, S.Durham, L.Lual

HF: K.Langford, P.Wright, J.Gresham

F: R.Unwin, L.McMahon, I.Kako

FOLL: T.Goldstein, A.Perkins, B.Hobbs

I/C: J.Prior, J.Menzie, M.Guelfi, A.Clarke, S.El-Hawli

EMG: V.Visentini, Z.Johnson, O.Smartt

In: - K.Langford, R.Unwin, S.El-Hawli

Out: - Z.Merrett (Injured), D.Shiel (Suspension), A.May (Injured)

St Kilda Saints Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	3-2	3-2

St Kilda have won three in a row, with those all coming by below 10 points. 12 of the Saints last 13 matches have been decided by 39.5 points or less and they have played at Marvel Stadium on 12 occasions this season for five wins. .

Over the past five rounds, they have been able to match sides in terms of winning the footy, ranking 7th for disposals and clearances but a lack of pressure has led to them ranking 14th for both inside 50s and fewest inside 50s conceded.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has been the standout player at St Kilda this season and had another 33 disposals last weekend, making it four consecutive matches that he has hit the 30+. Jack Sinclair had 30 and has hit that mark in three of his past four.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
9-12	13-8	6-9	2-4

St Kilda Saints Team News

Mattaes Phillipou was quiet in his return from injury last weekend but will be better for the run. Isaac Keeler is available for selection after coming back via the VFL last weekend. Jack Carroll and Tobie Travaglia will be considered.

St Kilda Saints Team List

B: A.Tauru, C.Wilkie, A.Caminiti

HB: L.Stocker, N.Wanganeen-Milera, J.Sinclair

C: M.Windhager, H.Boxshall, B.Hill

HF: M.Wood, H.Garcia, D.Wilson

F: J.Higgins, A.Dodson, C.Sharman

FOLL: R.Marshall, J.Steele - C, M.Hall

I/C: Z.Jones, L.Collard, T.Travaglia, J.Macrae, M.Phillipou

EMG: I.Keeler, L.Henry, L.O’Connell

In: - A.Dodson, L.Collard, T.Travaglia

Out: - H.Clark (Injured), M.Heath (Omitted), L.Henry (Omitted)

Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2025 Round 23 FAQ’s

How to watch Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2025 Round 23?

You can watch the Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2025 Round 23 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.