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Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies AFL Round 23 Tips - Crows to break losing streak and stamp authority

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 14 Aug 2025 11:38

Ryan Tucker 14 Aug 2025

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Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 23 AFL game
The game will be played at Adelaide Oval, with the bounce at 7:35 PM (AEST)
Collingwood struggling for form at the wrong end of the season
Adelaide can have one hand on the Minor Premiership with a win at home
Crows have not beaten the Pies in last 10 starts

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies AFL Round 23 Tips

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies, Round 23 2025 - Expert Prediction

Adelaide can seal the minor premiership and send a message to the competition with a win over a stumbling Collingwood outfit at home.

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies, Round 23 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Adelaide Crows Team News
Adelaide Crows Team List
Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Collingwood Magpies Team News
Collingwood Magpies Team List
Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 23 FAQ’s

The Crows have been one of the most balanced teams in the comp this season, brutal at the contest, disciplined in defence, and ruthless in front of goal. They’re 10-1 from their last 11, unbeaten in their last nine at Adelaide Oval, and are covering the line more often than not.

Collingwood are clinging to a top four finish but their form suggests it’s slipping through their fingers. The Pies have lost four of five all to finals-bound teams and have been carved up defensively in back-to-back 100-point concessions for the first time in two years.

The Crows are the most defensively disruptive side in the comp. They lead the league in restricting marks inside 50, disposal efficiency, and centre clearance points. And with Adelaide ranked top three in both contested possession and goal accuracy, they have the weapons to punish an out-of-sorts Magpies backline.

Adelaide’s top-tier pressure and efficiency should prove the difference, take them on the 1-39 margin and to go Over 89.5 pts. Jordan Dawson is the front runner to win the Brownlow this season, he should clear 25+ disposals again.

Adelaide have covered the line in 14 of 21 games this season
Collingwood are 0-5 ATS in their last five, all against top eight opponents
The Crows are ranked 1st in Points from Turnovers and 2nd in Goal Accuracy
Jordan Dawson has had 25+ disposals in his past four matches against Collingwood.

Head to Head

Collingwood have won 9 straight games dating back to the start of the 2019 season. The streak actually extends to 10 games but is past the stats that we count.

The most recent matchup was in Round 11 this season which the Pies took by 10 pts at the MCG.

7 of the last 9 have gone Under the Game Total including the last 4 straight. 5 of the last 7 have been decided by 5 points or less pointing to a close finish once again.

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
5-0	4-1	3-2

Adelaide are surging at the right time. They’ve won 10 of their last 11, including three on the trot against top-half teams, and sit firmly on top of the ladder. The Crows’ dominance at home continues with nine straight wins at Adelaide Oval, and they’ve covered the line in five straight.

Their statistical profile is elite. Adelaide rank 1st in Contested Possessions and Turnovers Forced, while also leading the league in restricting opposition ball use ranking 1st in limiting disposals, disposal efficiency, inside 50s, and marks inside 50. Their pressure is relentless and their structure is watertight.

Up forward, Riley Thilthorpe is in hot form with 18 goals in five games, while Jordan Dawson continues to accumulate with 25+ in four of his last seven. They’re also 2nd in the AFL for goal accuracy and 3rd in converting inside 50s into majors, a lethal combination when paired with their ability to generate stoppage dominance and intercept marks.

This is a premiership-calibre team playing with confidence and control.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
14-7	8-13	8-5	8-0

Adelaide Crows Team News

Rory Laird has copped a suspension which will keep him out of this one but the Crows regain James Peatling from a thigh injury.

Adelaide Crows Team List

B: J.Worrell, N.Murray, H.Bond

HB: W.Milera, M.Keane, B.Smith

C: I.Cumming, J.Dawson - C, D.Curtin

HF: B.Keays, R.Thilthorpe, A.Neal-Bullen

F: I.Rankine, D.Fogarty, T.Walker

FOLL: R.O’Brien, J.Peatling, J.Soligo

I/C: H.Schoenberg, Z.Taylor, S.Berry, M.Hinge, L.Murphy

EMG: C.Burgess, J.Butts, B.Dowling

In: - B.Smith, T.Walker, H.Schoenberg, L.Murphy

Out: - R.Laird (Suspension), C.Burgess (Omitted), C.Jones (Omitted), L.Pedlar (Injured)

Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-4	0-5	0-5

Things have unravelled fast for the Magpies. They’ve dropped four of their last five, all to finals contenders and their defensive cracks are now gaping. They’ve conceded 100+ points in back-to-back games, something they hadn’t done since 2023.

Collingwood are winless ATS in their last five and have tumbled down the defensive rankings. They still tackle hard (1st in total tackles, 2nd in tackles inside 50), but their back half is vulnerable. They rank bottom six in limiting stoppage clearance scores and bottom five in defending kicks, clearances and inside 50s.

There’s still talent all over the park with Nick Daicos, Jordan De Goey, and Brody Mihocek all continuing to battle, but the polish and composure of last season is missing. They’ve now gone Under in five straight games and are relying on moments of individual brilliance to stay competitive.

A trip to Adelaide against the most complete side in the comp right now could be one step too far.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
10-11	7-14	9-4	6-2

Collingwood Magpies Team News

Jeremy Howe will miss a bit of time following a concussion in last week’s loss. Tom Mitchell and Will Hoskin-Elliot have both been dropped as the team struggles for form. Beau McCreery, Wil Parker and Ed Allan all come into the side.

Collingwood Magpies Team List

B: B.Maynard, D.Moore - C, B.Frampton

HB: J.Daicos, H.Perryman, I.Quaynor

C: S.Sidebottom, N.Long, J.Crisp

HF: J.De Goey, D.McStay, L.Schultz

F: J.Elliott, B.Mihocek, P.Lipinski

FOLL: D.Cameron, S.Pendlebury, N.Daicos

I/C: D.Houston, W.Parker, T.Membrey, B.McCreery, E.Allan

EMG: T.Mitchell, O.Markov, M.Cox

In: - W.Parker, B.McCreery, E.Allan

Out: - T.Mitchell (Omitted), J.Howe (Injured), W.Hoskin-Elliott (Omitted)

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 23 FAQ’s

How to watch Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 23?

You can watch the Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 23 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.