Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Sinner set for 11th straight win over Demon

Sinner picked up the China Open title in 2023 before losing a thrilling showdown with rival Carlos Alcaraz in the 2024 final. Now, Sinner is one win away from advancing to a third straight title match in the Chinese capital - and despite some indifferent form at stages this tournament, he's the deserved heavy favourite in what has been one of the most one-sided matchups on tour over the last few years.

De Minaur has done an excellent job of maximising his talents and breaking into the top 10 over the last couple of years. But, the Aussie still has his limits and ceilings and he hasn't got close to Sinner in their recent meetings. De Minaur has lost 18 straight sets against the Italian, while he has a poor 5-38 record vs top five players throughout his career. Quite simply, unless Sinner has an extremely off day (which just doesn't happen), then de Minaur has no chance. Tough to find value in this matchup these days, but Sinner to win with Under 21.5 total games looks the best play.

Sinner leads 10-0, with de Minaur only taking one set - and that came all the way back in 2020 before Sinner was even close to the player he is today. Their most-recent clash was in the Australian Open quarter-finals at the start of 2025, with Sinner crushing the Aussie by a 6-3 6-2 6-1 score.

Sinner has registered a 40-5 record for the season coming into this contest and his primary focus for the remainder of the year will be attempting to reclaim the No. 1 ranking from Carlos Alcaraz, who leapfrogged him for the top spot by winning the Cincinnati and US Open titles to finish the North American hardcourt summer.

No matter what happens for the remainder of 2025, you'd expect Sinner to get back to the No. 1 ranking at some stage early next year considering he was suspended for three months after his Australian Open title defence and didn't play until Rome.

The Italian hasn't been at his best lately though - he dropped sets to the likes of Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime at the US Open, while he also needed three sets to defeat Terence Atmane in the second round of Beijing. Sinner was also fortunate not to go the distance against Fabian Marozsan in the quarter-finals as the Hungarian served for the second set at 5-4 before imploding and gifting the top seed a 6-1 7-5 victory.

Sinner is on a 12-match winning streak in semi-final matches, last losing at this stage of a tournament at Roland Garros 2024, while he's also won 16 of his last 20 matches vs top 10 players dating back to October 2024 - with all four of those defeats coming against Alcaraz.

De Minaur has put together a 45-17 record for the season and leads the tour for most victories on hardcourt in 2025.

It's been another consistent season for de Minaur, with the Aussie's primary highlight coming in Washington when he captured his first title of the season, saving three championship points against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the final.

De Minaur carried that form into another US Open quarter-final appearance, but he would have been extremely disappointed at a four-set defeat to Felix Auger-Aliassime, with a first ever Grand Slam semi-final a real possibility.

There's been some globe-trotting and more disappointment since - de Minaur jetted back to Sydney for Davis Cup, but he went down to Raphael Collignon as Australia lost the tie to Belgium. Barely having a chance to rest, de Minaur was back in the USA for Laver Cup before flying to Beijing, where he's defeated Bu Yunchaokete, Arthur Rinderknech and Jakub Mensik (via retirement) to advance into the semi-finals.