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Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL Round 18 Tips - Manly pile on Parra's pain

Jeremy Darke

Editor

Last updated: Fri 03 Jul 2026 11:08

Jeremy Darke 03 Jul 2026

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Manly backed for a comfortable 13+ win over Parramatta.
Eels expected to score under 20.5 points due to offensive struggles.
Tom Trbojevic tipped for 2+ tries as best value tryscorer.
Kick off is at 2:00 PM (AEST) on Sunday, 5th July at CommBank Stadium

Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL Round 18 Tips

Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles, Round 18 2026 - Expert Prediction

Tom Trbojevic is set for a big afternoon at CommBank Stadium, with Manly tipped to run away from Parramatta and the superstar fullback backed to score at least two tries.

Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles, Round 18 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Parramatta Eels Form Analysis
Manly Sea Eagles Form Analysis
Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles Team News & Team Lists
Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL 2026 Round 18 FAQ’s

The Sea Eagles arrive at CommBank Stadium with momentum after a dominant win over Melbourne and look well placed to continue their push towards the top four. While Luke Brooks is out for the season and Haumole Olakau'atu is away on Origin duty, Manly still boast one of the competition's most dangerous attacking backlines and should create plenty of opportunities against an Eels defence that has struggled all season.

Parramatta continue to battle hard, but points have been difficult to come by. They have lost four of their last five matches while averaging just 13.8 points during that stretch, and now lose Mitchell Moses to Origin. Jonah Pezet returns to the No.7 jersey, however this is a difficult assignment against one of the NRL's better defensive outfits.

Although the model projects Manly by only three points, this shapes as one of those matchups where the class gap can widen as the game wears on. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by 14 points or more, and with Parramatta struggling to sustain pressure for 80 minutes, the Sea Eagles have the attacking quality to put the game away late.

The Eels' team total of Under 20.5 also stands out. Manly have conceded just 13.8 points per game across their last five matches, while Parramatta have scored only 69 points during the same period. Unless the Eels can dramatically improve their execution in attack, breaking through the 20-point mark looks unlikely.

Tom Trbojevic is the player to watch. With Reuben Garrick and Clayton Faulalo returning to strengthen Manly's outside backs, Turbo should receive plenty of quality ball and the model identifies value in the 2+ tries market against an Eels defence that ranks among the competition's weakest.

Four of the last five meetings have been decided by 14 points or more.
Parramatta have averaged just 13.8 points across their last five matches.
Manly have conceded only 13.8 points per game across their last five.
Tom Trbojevic rates as the best value tryscoring play with 2+ tries.

Head to Head

Manly have won three of the last five meetings between the clubs, including a convincing 33-18 victory earlier this season. More importantly for punters, four of those five clashes have been decided by at least 14 points, suggesting this fixture has regularly produced comfortable victories rather than close finishes.

Parramatta Eels Form Analysis

Parramatta have lost four of their last five matches and remain near the bottom of the ladder, averaging just 13.8 points per game during that period. Their attack has lacked polish without sustained possession, and despite competing physically through the middle, they have struggled to convert opportunities into points.

Jonah Pezet returns for his first NRL appearance since Round 5 to replace Mitchell Moses, providing another organising option in the halves. However, the Eels face one of the competition's more disciplined defensive teams and will need to significantly improve their execution if they are to keep pace.

Manly Sea Eagles Form Analysis

Manly have won three of their last five matches and continue to build towards the finals behind one of the NRL's strongest defensive records. They have conceded only 13.8 points per game over that stretch while allowing their experienced spine to control field position before capitalising on opposition mistakes.

The loss of Luke Brooks is significant, but Jamal Fogarty takes full control of the side, while Tom Trbojevic remains the focal point of the attack. The returns of Reuben Garrick and Clayton Faulalo further strengthen a backline that already features Jason Saab, giving Manly plenty of strike despite missing Haumole Olakau'atu through Origin.

Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles Team News & Team Lists

Team News and Lists are in our dedicated Round 18 Team List Article.

Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL 2026 Round 18 FAQ’s

How to livestream Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL 2026 Round 18?

You can livestream the Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL 2026 Round 18 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL 2026 Round 18?

To buy tickets to the Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL 2026 Round 18 game check the NRL website or the official Parramatta Eels site

Verdict

Parramatta Eels v Manly Sea Eagles

Take Manly 13+ and Parramatta Under 20.5 team total and Turbo for a double.

Manly Sea Eagles

13+ Winning Margin

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Parramatta Under 20.5

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