Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins NRL Round 18 Tips - Dolphins extend streak despite Origin absentees

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Fri 03 Jul 2026 11:09

Jeremy Darke 03 Jul 2026

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Dolphins favored to extend 8-game winning streak vs Newcastle.
both teams heavily affected by Origin
Model predicts Dolphins by 6.1 pts; Herbie Farnworth a top tryscorer pick.
Kick off is at 4:05 PM (AEST) on Sunday, 5th July at McDonald Jones Stadium

Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins NRL Round 18 Tips

Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins, Round 18 2026 - Expert Prediction

The Dolphins can extend their winning streak on Sunday afternoon, with Herbie Farnworth backed to find the tryline as Newcastle's impressive home record comes to an end.

Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins, Round 18 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
Dolphins Form Analysis
Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins Team News & Team Lists
Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins NRL 2026 Round 18 FAQ’s

This shapes as one of the highest-quality matchups of Round 18, with third-placed Dolphins travelling to face a Newcastle side sitting fifth on the ladder. Both teams have been among the competition's form sides, but the Dolphins continue to find ways to win despite a lengthy casualty list and look well placed to cover the short 1.5-point line.

Newcastle have made McDonald Jones Stadium a fortress, winning four straight home games, but they lose Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best to Origin duty. Fletcher Sharpe has excelled whenever he shifts to fullback, however replacing two of the club's biggest attacking weapons against one of the NRL's hottest teams is a significant challenge.

The Dolphins have been one of the stories of the season, winning eight straight matches while averaging more than 35 points per game during that run. They remain without a host of representative stars, including Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Isaiya Katoa, Jack Bostock and Selwyn Cobbo, but Kristian Woolf's side continues to prove its depth with every passing week.

The model projects the Dolphins by 6.1 points compared to the market at just 1.5, making the visitors the standout play. The Under 52.5 also appeals despite the Dolphins' attacking firepower, with the model projecting just 47.7 total points and both teams conceding only 18.4 points per game across their last five matches.

Herbie Farnworth is the tryscorer to back. The England international continues to be one of the Dolphins' most reliable attacking threats and should see plenty of quality ball against a Newcastle backline missing Bradman Best.

The Dolphins have won eight consecutive matches.
Newcastle have won all five previous meetings against the Dolphins.
The model projects the Dolphins by 6.1 points against a 1.5-point line.
Both teams have conceded just 18.4 points per game across their last five matches.
Herbie Farnworth has scored a try in each of his last 3 matches.

Head to Head

History belongs to Newcastle, who have won all five meetings between the clubs since the Dolphins entered the competition. Every game has been competitive, with margins of 6, 14, 8, 4 and 2 points, but this is the strongest Dolphins outfit the Knights have faced and they arrive in far better form than previous encounters.

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis

The Knights have won four of their last five matches to climb into the top five, averaging 25.6 points while conceding just 18.4 during that stretch. Adam O'Brien's side has built its success on resilience, grinding out close victories and defending well in key moments, particularly at McDonald Jones Stadium where they have won four straight.

The challenge this week is replacing Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best. Fletcher Sharpe moves back to fullback after impressing there previously, while Dylan Brown will shoulder more responsibility as Newcastle's chief playmaker.

The Knights have shown they can compete without their stars, but against the competition's most in-form side they'll need to produce one of their best performances of the season.

Dolphins Form Analysis

The Dolphins continue to establish themselves as genuine premiership contenders, riding an eight-game winning streak into Round 18. They have averaged 36.0 points across their last five games while winning by an average margin of 17.6 points, combining attacking flair with a defence that has quietly conceded only 18.4 points per match over the same period.

What's been most impressive is their ability to keep winning despite missing key personnel. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Isaiya Katoa, Jack Bostock, Selwyn Cobbo, Max Plath and Tom Flegler are all unavailable, yet the Dolphins continue to dominate through the middle before creating opportunities on the edges.

Tom Gilbert returns to strengthen the forward rotation, while Herbie Farnworth, Jamayne Isaako and Kodi Nikorima provide more than enough strike to keep the attack rolling.

Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins Team News & Team Lists

Team News and Lists are in our dedicated Round 18 Team List Article.

Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins NRL 2026 Round 18 FAQ’s

How to livestream Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins NRL 2026 Round 18?

You can livestream the Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins NRL 2026 Round 18 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.