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State of Origin Game 3 Tips and Predictions QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues - Goodnight And Thanks For Coming

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Tue 07 Jul 2026 06:42

Ryan Tucker 07 Jul 2026

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QLD Maroons are favourites for Game 3 and likely to clinch the 2026 Origin series at Suncorp.
NSW Blues' team changes and internal issues make a comeback challenging.
Expert tip: Back QLD to win, cover the line, and expect a high-scoring game over 44.5 points.
Kick off is at 8:05 PM (AEST) on Wednesday 8th July, at Suncorp Stadium

Selwyn Cobbo of the Maroons celebrates scoring a try. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues, State of Origin Game 3 2026 - Expert Prediction for Game 3

Queensland are favourites to take out Game 3 at Suncorp and secure another Origin series win winning their ninth decider in the last 11 Game threes when the series is on the line.

QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues, State of Origin Game 3 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
QLD Maroons Form Analysis
QLD Maroons Team News
NSW Blues Form Analysis
NSW Blues Team News
QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues Team Lists
QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 3 FAQ’s

Save for the 23 minute period following the send off of Kalyn Ponga in Game 1 they have been the more dominant team through the series. They have created and held momentum for longer periods than the Blues and their strike weapons have delivered on a more consistent basis, especially in their big Game 2 victory.

NSW are not completely out of the game, but there is a lot that needs to go right for them to win this game. Nathan Cleary and Mitch Moses need to figure out how to run this team together while the forward rotation needs to be conducted in a way that doesn’t allow QLD to gain any ascendancy through the middle.

NSW fans are not happy following the axing of Brian To’o and while Jack Bostock offers a different skillset in the air, there have just been too many wild decisions by this coaching staff for it not to play mental games with the players. Liam Martin and Haumole Olakau’atu offer much needed aggression but they occupy the same bit of land and both can play 80 minutes.

NSW have done themselves the dirty and now will have to overcome mental demons, an inept coaching staff, a Suncorp Stadium crowd and whatever else Origin decides to throw their way which just seems a bridge too far.

Take QLD to win and wrap up another series victory at home, covering the line in the process. Game Total over 44.5 with the chances of NSW giving up again if QLD can build a lead. Selwyn Cobbo is an obvious choice for First or Anytime Tryscorer as is Mark Nawaqanitawase for the Blues.

Check out our Game 3 First Try Scorer and Man of the Match picks by following their links.

QLD had won 8 straight deciders at Suncorp prior to NSW claiming the most recent in 2024.
58% of NRL games this season have finished with 13+ Margins pointing to teams giving up if the lead blooms.
Mark Nawaqanitawase scored twice in his Game 2 debut and is a clear target for both kicks and shape plays.
Selwyn Cobbo scored 3 tries in Game 2 and has scored 10 tries in 12 games for the Dolphins this season.

Head to Head

Queensland secured the 2025 Series by winning Game 3 on the road in Sydney but lost the most recent decider in Brisbane back in 2024. QLD have won 3 of the last 4 series dating back to 2022.

The Maroons lead the overall series H2H 25-17 with 2 series being drawn. QLD also hold an advantage in game wins 72-61 with 2 games ending in a draw.

QLD have won 17 of 27 Game 3’s played at Suncorp Stadium including 8 in a row prior to NSW winning in 2024, QLD have won 39 of 62 Origin games played at Suncorp Stadium.

QLD Maroons Form Analysis

QLD weathered an early Blues onslaught to take out Game 2 in Melbourne and set up a classic sudden death Game 3 at Suncorp. The 44-24 scoreline was the first time QLD have cracked 40 pts since Game 3 of the 2001 series and was the highest ever score from a QLD team in Origin history.

They suffered from a lack of possession early but were stringent in completing their sets, getting to 95% in the 80 minutes to wrestle momentum and run away with the game.

The Maroons forwards dominated yardage 1678-1362 but Selwyn Cobbo played his best ever Origin game with 3 tries, 3 linebreaks and 199 Run Metres from 20 runs.

QLD Maroons Team News

QLD have been forced into one change and have opted for a second. Lindsay Collins picked up a concussion playing for the Roosters last week and has been replaced in the team by Patrick Carrigan who returns from injury.

Kulikefu Finefeuiaki has been replaced by Jeremiah Nanai who has been tearing it up for North Queensland recently, scoring twice in their win over the Panthers in Rd 17.

NSW Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends

NSW Blues Form Analysis

The Blues made a bunch of changes after winning Game 1 but still got smashed 44-24 at the MCG in Game 2. Once again they have made a series of changes in the hope of bringing some bigger bodies and sudden death experience to the team looking to salvage a series win.

The Blues scored first and even led 12-8 at the half in Game 2 but were completely overrun in the second half as Queensland evened out possession and completed at an exceptional 95% rate over the course of the game.

NSW still had 12 errors and conceded 5 penalties which gifted the Maroons valuable field position and momentum.

NSW Blues Team News

Laurie Daley and the Blues selection panel have once again astounded their follower base. Blues stalwart Brian To’o has been sensationally dropped in favour of Jack Bostock, the choice provides more height against the QLD aerial attack but has left a sour taste with many Blues supporters.

Bradman Best also comes into the team in the centres, pushing Tolu Koula to the reserves while Kotoni Staggs has been dropped for Stephen Crichton. Mark Nawaqanitawase retains his wing position as does Mitch Moses in the halves.

Dylan Lucas has been left out with Liam Martin having now played enough NRL games to reach the level of match fitness needed for Origin. Blayke Brailey returns to the team following a broken arm which pushes Api Koroisau out of the squad, Victor Radley also moves to the reserves with the Blues recalling Haumole Olakau’atu.

QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues Team Lists

Queensland Maroons	No.	New South Wales Blues
Kalyn Ponga	1	James Tedesco
Selwyn Cobbo	2	Jack Bostock
Robert Toia	3	Bradman Best
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow	4	Stephen Crichton
Jojo Fifita	5	Mark Nawaqanitawase
Cameron Munster	6	Mitchell Moses
Sam Walker	7	Nathan Cleary
Thomas Flegler	8	Payne Haas
Harry Grant	9	Reece Robson
Tino Fa'asuamaleaui	10	Mitchell Barnett
Briton Nikora	11	Hudson Young
Kurt Capewell	12	Liam Martin
Reuben Cotter	13	Isaah Yeo
Max Plath	14	Cameron Murray
Patrick Carrigan	15	Addin Fonua-Blake
Jeremiah Nanai	16	Haumole Olakau'atu
Trent Loiero	17	Blayke Brailey
Reece Walsh	18	Ethan Strange
Murray Taulagi	19	Tolutau Koula
Corey Horsburgh	20	Victor Radley

QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 3 FAQ’s

How to watch QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 3?

You can watch the QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 3 game exclusively on Channel 9. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 3?

To buy tickets to the QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 3 game check the NRL website.

Verdict

State of Origin Game 3 - QLD v NSW

QLD -6.5

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