2026 State of Origin Game 3 First Try Scorer Tips - Who will get the first try in Origin Game 3?

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Wed 01 Jul 2026 11:07

Jeremy Darke 3 hours ago

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Outside backs & QLD 2nd-rowers dominate first try stats.
Top picks: Nikora/Nanai (QLD), Nawaqanitawase (NSW), Cobbo (QLD).
Historical trend: QLD 15, NSW 14 first tries in last 29 games.

Who will get the first try in Origin Game 3?

2026 State of Origin Game 3 First Try Scorer Tips - QLD vs NSW

We nailed Game 2 with Kotoni Staggs scoring the first try so let’s finish off the series with a bang and spike Game 3 as well.

The same tactic has to be said for the decider, it is all about the outside backs of course with them dominating the historical stats for FTS. A couple of QLD second- rowers have also snuck in there in the big matches over the last 10 years and need some serious consideration with the Maroons dominating deciders over the last couple of decades.

In the 29 games played in the last 8 years, a Queensland has scored the first try 15 times, a New South Welshman 14 times
NSW have scored the first try in Game One in 7 of the previous 9 years.
The centres (11) and wingers (10) have naturally dominated the first try scoring category, second-rowers have scored on 4 occasions with no other position scoring first more than once.

Based on these trends and their current try scoring form here are our top 3 picks for the first try scorer in State of Origin Game 3.

Check out our Game 3 Match Predictions and Man of the Match picks by following their links.

Briton Nikora / Jeremiah Nanai QLD

Briton Nikora / Jeremiah NanaiFirst Try Scorer$21.00

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I know it is cheating a little to pick two players, but I’ve got a feeling that Jeremiah Nanai is going to slot in and pinch Briton Nikora’s starting spot for Game 3.

Nanai has had a direct impact for the Cowboys since coming back from injury and is fully fit for Game 3 of Origin. A double against the NRL benchmark Penrith Panthers last week sealed his inclusion in the QLD squad after lifting North Queensland to victory over the Panthers with his tries and 100 metres from 11 runs in the match.

If Nikora starts he will need to lift. The Sharks second-rower has probably been one of the underwhelming players for QLD this series and could just be waiting for the right moment to make his mark for the Maroons.

Mark Nawaqanitawase NSW

Mark NawaqanitawaseFirst Try Scorer$10.00

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You are not taking this job seriously if Mark Nawaqanitawase is not in the FTS repertoire. A double for the beaten Blues on his debut gives him the credentials at representative level after just one match and with Brian To’o being dropped for Jack Bostock I expect the first attacking opportunities for NSW to go towards Marky Mark.

Selwyn Cobbo QLD

Selwyn CobboFirst Try Scorer$9.00

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Unlucky not to get Man of the Match honours in Game 2 of the series after scoring 3 tries and running for 200 metres but that is beside the point… I’m just dirty I guess.

Cobbo has had a break out season for the powering Dolphins and has easily been the most influential player for the Maroons this series behind Sam Walker. You know that Walker and Munster are going to go back to the try scoring well that is Selwyn Cobbo and it won’t take long for the QLD winger to put his stamp on Game 3 of the series.