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Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL Qualifying Final Tips - Storm’s prelim run to continue

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Wed 10 Sep 2025 08:04

Ryan Tucker 10 Sep 2025

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Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs expert predictions for Friday’s Qualifying Final NRL game
Kick off is at 7:50 PM (AEST) at AAMI Park
Storm predicted to win despite key absences (Hughes, Papenhuyzen).
Bulldogs’ attack/defence has declined; squad hit by injuries.
Expect a close (1-12 margin), low-scoring game; Xavier Coates backed to score.

Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL Qualifying Final Tips

Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs, Qualifying Final 2025 - Expert Prediction

Despite not having Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen, the Storm will win this Qualifying Final at home, progressing to their 3rd straight prelim final and 10th in the last 11 years of competition.

Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs, Qualifying Final 2025 - Expert Prediction
Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs Qualifying Final Cheat Sheet
Head to Head
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis
Melbourne Storm Team News
Melbourne Storm Team List
Canterbury Bulldogs Form Analysis
Canterbury Bulldogs Team News
Canterbury Bulldogs Team List
Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2025 Qualifying Final FAQ’s

Earlier in the year it would have been excusable to think the Storm would lose without Jahrome Hughes in their lineup. They have been terrible without him in recent years and lost their round 4 game to the Dragons with him on the sidelines.

But a 4-1 record without Hughes at the back-end of the season which included wins over Parra, Brisbane, Penrith and the Bulldogs, has this team convinced they will be ok.

The Bulldogs have become progressively worse in attack since Lachlan Galvin came to the club. In time things might still get better but they have just not clicked yet and now the pressure will be on as they try to upset the most consistent team of the last decade on their home soil.

Not only has the Bulldogs attack waned but their defence has also started showing vulnerabilities. They will possibly have two new wingers this weekend which could cause cohesion and communication problems as the Storm attack the edges. Add to that the Bulldogs have been woeful in the wet this year and light rain is predicted for Friday night in Melbourne.

Take Melbourne 1-12 in what is expected to be a tight and low scoring contest. Xavier Coates will be an aerial target against backup wingers, lock him in for a try.

The last 2 matchups between these teams have finished with 1-12 margins and the last 3 have gone Under the Game Total.
The Bulldogs have a 15-9 record to the Under this season and are the top ranked defence in the NRL while occupying the 14th spot over the last 5 games for scoring.
Melbourne have made the Preliminary Final in 9 of the last 10 seasons.
Canterbury have named 2 back up wingers and Xavier Coates has scored 9 tries in the last 8 games of the season.

Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs Qualifying Final Cheat Sheet

Storm vs Bulldogs QF Cheat Sheet

Head to Head

Melbourne hold a dominant 7-1 record against the Bulldogs since the start of the 2019 season. They have won 2 straight at AAMI park including the most recent battle in August this year which finished 20-14.

The Under has hit in 3 straight games and in 5 of the last 8. While the winning margin has stayed between 1-12 in the last 2 games, in 5 of the last 8 the scores have erupted to 13+ margins.

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis

The Storm have dropped 2 in a row heading into week 1 of the finals, a skid that capped a 5 game win streak which also extended a 11 wins from 12 games run.

The 30-14 loss to the Broncos at Suncorp is more telling than the 40-10 loss to the Roosters the week prior due to the lineup changes Melbourne had made in resting players.

Melbourne had 55% of Possession and 60% of Territory in the loss to the Broncos, much higher numbers than their season averages. The 47 Tackles Inside Opposition 20m was also immense but with Jahrome Hughes going down with a wrist injury, their attack was left wanting.

Melbourne Storm Team News

Jahrome Hughes is not likely to play again in 2025 after fracturing his arm in his return from a shoulder injury last weekend. Tyran Wishart has been named as his replacement.

Ryan Papenhuyzen was concussed in the final moments of last week’s game and is now out, Nick Meaney is his replacement at fullback. Joe Chan comes into the centres as cover.

Harry Grant is back following suspension, Nelson Asofa-Solomona is out due to suspension.

Melbourne Storm Team List

1. Nick Meaney

2. Will Warbrick

3. Grant Anderson

4. Joe Chan

5. Xavier Coates

6. Cameron Munster

7. Tyran Wishart

8. Stefano Utoikamanu

9. Harry Grant

10. Josh King

11. Ativalu Lisati

12. Eli Katoa

13. Trent Loiero

Interchange

14. Jonah Pezet

15. Alec MacDonald

16. Tui Kamakimica

17. Bronson Garlick

Reserves

18. Kane Bradley

19. Marion Seve

20. Jack Howarth

21. Sua Faalogo

22. Lazarus Vaalepu

Canterbury Bulldogs Form Analysis

Canterbury were touched up by the Sharks last weekend 24-6, their 4th loss in their last 6 games. Despite that, they retain their spot in the top 4 thanks to an impressive 11-2 start.

The major difference between those first 13 games and the ones that have been played since - Lachlan Galvin. Since the playmaker joined the Bulldogs they have averaged a converted try less in points as well as reduced rankings in significant statistical measures that contribute to wins.

The defence is still ranked 1st overall in the NRL but has slid to 4th over the past 5 games. Over the same span, they rank 14th in Scoring.

Canterbury Bulldogs Team News

Bronson Xerri left the field with concussion last weekend and will miss this weekend’s game. Marcelo Montoya also suffered an ankle injury which forces him out too. Jethro Rinakama and Blake Wilson join the squad with Enari Tuala going into the centres.

Jacob Kiraz could be a late inclusion after being named in the reserves. Sam Hughes and Josh Curran switch between starting and interchange.

Canterbury Bulldogs Team List

1. Connor Tracey

2. Jethro Rinakama

3. Enari Tuala

4. Stephen Crichton

5. Blake Wilson

6. Matt Burton

7. Lachlan Galvin

8. Max King

9. Bailey Hayward

10. Samuel Hughes

11. Viliame Kikau

12. Jacob Preston

13. Jaeman Salmon

Interchange

14. Kurt Mann

15. Sitili Tupouniua

16. Josh Curran

17. Reed Mahoney

Reserves

19. Jake Turpin

20. Kurtis Morrin

21. Toby Sexton

22. Harry Hayes

23. Jacob Kiraz

Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2025 Qualifying Final FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2025 Qualifying Final?

You can watch the Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2025 Qualifying Final game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2025 Qualifying Final?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2025 Qualifying Final game check the NRL website or the official Melbourne Storm site.

Verdict

Melbourne Storm v Canterbury Bulldogs

Take Melbourne 1-12 in what is expected to be a tight and low scoring contest. Xavier Coates will be an aerial target against backup wingers, lock him in for a try.

Melbourne Storm 1-12

Winning Margin

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