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New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers NRL Tips - Panthers to eliminate Warriors
The upcoming NRL Elimination Final sees the Penrith Panthers favored to defeat the New Zealand Warriors, continuing their outstanding finals form. The Panthers have won their last 12 finals matches and return to full strength, while the Warriors have struggled in recent months, hampered by injuries and inconsistent performances. Key action points include backing the Panthers to cover the -9.5 line, their defense to restrict the Warriors' points, and Paul Alamoti as a top tryscoring pick. Experts predict a comfortable Panthers victory.
- New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Elimination Final game
- Kick off is at 4.05pm AEST at Go Media Stadium
- Panthers on a 12-match winning streak in the Finals; have won nine of last 10 vs Warriors
- Paul Alamoti has scored six tries in his last five starts for Penrith
- Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets
New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers NRL Tips
New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers, NRL Elimination Final - Expert Prediction
The Panthers will continue their extraordinary winning streak in the finals to eliminate the slumping Warriors from the competition when the two sides clash in the first Elimination Final on Saturday at Go Media Stadium in Auckland.
- New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers, NRL Elimination Final - Expert Prediction
- Head To Head
- New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis
- New Zealand Warriors Team News
- New Zealand Warriors Team List
- Penrith Panthers Form Analysis
- Penrith Panthers Team News
- Penrith Panthers Team List
Warriors vs Panthers Finals Cheat Sheet
They may have finished the regular season in the unfamiliar position of seventh, but it will be more of the same for Penrith on Saturday as they officially begin their pursuit of a fifth consecutive premiership - this time from outside the top four.
Penrith were on a nine-game winning streak before narrow golden point defeats to the Storm and Raiders, which resulted in Ivan Cleary opting to field a reserve grade side for their game against the Bulldogs, resigned to the fact they would be challenging for this year's premiership from outside the top four. Normal programming resumed last week as the Panthers dropped 40 points on the Dragons and now they get the likes of Brian To'o and Liam Martin back as they return to full strength for the finals.
The Panthers have won their last 12 finals matches, not losing in this arena since the 2021 Qualifying Final against the Rabbitohs - and they went on to win the competition that year by beating Souths in the Grand Final.
Let's be honest - the Warriors haven't been playing to a top eight standard for the last couple of months, basically since Luke Metcalf went down with a season-ending ACL injury. Back-to-back defeats to the Eels and Sea Eagles over the last fortnight saw the Warriors drop from fourth to sixth, seeing a double chance in the finals slip away and now condemned to a sudden-death clash with the four-time reigning premiers.
I expect the Panthers to cruise to victory across the ditch - back them to cover the -9.5 line and their defence to restrict the Warriors to Under 16.5 total team points. Paul Alamoti was a tryscoring hero in the Grand Final last season and he's been prolific in his recent starts - take him to cross for another four-pointer.
- Panthers have won their last 12 finals games dating back to 2021
- Panthers have won nine of their last 10 games vs Warriors
- Panthers' last six wins over Warriors have covered a -9.5 line
- Warriors have scored Under 16.5 points in eight of their last nine defeats to the Panthers
- Warriors haven't beaten a top eight team since Round 14
- Paul Alamoti has scored six tries in his last five games & crossed vs Warriors in R16 earlier this season
Head To Head
Panthers have won nine of the last 10 meetings between the teams, including a most-recent 28-18 victory at Go Media Stadium in Round 16 this year. Penrith decided to rest all of their Origin stars for that game, but still prevailed relatively comfortably, while Luke Metcalf was also playing for the Warriors. Worrying signs for the Kiwi club with a full-strength Panthers side now rolling into town, with Metcalf missing.
New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis
The Warriors are the only team featuring in the finals to have a negative win-loss record across their last 10 games, losing six of those fixtures.
In fact, the only wins the Warriors have recorded since Round 14 have been against the Tigers, Knights, Dragons and Titans.
There's no two ways about it - the Warriors' form has fallen off a cliff since Metcalf's knee injury and they haven't been anywhere close to the sort of level that propelled them into the top four following an 8-2 start to the season.
Nestled inside the top four for the bulk of the year, the Warriors slipped to sixth following consecutive defeats to the Eels and Sea Eagles to finish off the regular season.
New Zealand Warriors Team News
Wayde Egan (hip) and Jackson Ford (suspension) both return for this clash. Sam Healey drops to the reserves and Tanner Stowers-Smith to the bench.
Rocco Berry is out with a shoulder injury, so Kurt Capewell moves to the centres and gun teenager Leka Halasima gets a start in the back row.
New Zealand Warriors Team List
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
3. Adam Pompey
4. Kurt Capewell
5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
6. Chanel Harris-Tavita
7. Tanah Boyd
8. James Fisher-Harris
9. Wayde Egan
10. Jackson Ford
11. Leka Halasima
12. Marata Niukore
13. Erin Clark
Interchange
14. Te Maire Martin
15. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava
16. Demitric Vaimauga
17. Tanner Stowers-Smith
Reserves
18. Taine Tuaupiki
20. Samuel Healey
21. Kalani Going
22. Bunty Afoa
23. Edward Kosi
Penrith Panthers Form Analysis
It's been a wild season for the Panthers - the four-time defending premiers recovered from a shockingly slow start to surge from the foot of the ladder into the lower half of the top eight, keeping their hopes of a fifth straight premiership alive.
Penrith looked like they were about to secure a stunning top four finish after a nine-match winning streak, but back-to-back golden point defeats to the Storm and Raiders dashed those dreams.
Ivan Cleary then shifted the team's focus to rest and recuperation, fielding his reserve team for the loss against the Bulldogs in the penultimate round of the regular season.
Knowing the importance of rebuilding momentum ahead of the finals, most of Penrith's stars were back on deck for last week's 40-20 demolition of the Dragons. Nathan Cleary looked sharp as the superstar halfback plots for another big finals series.
Penrith Panthers Team News
Brian To'o and Liam Martin return after being given an extended break to recover from niggling injuries, but Mitch Kenny is out with a hamstring problem. Luke Sommerton will start at hooker, while Paul Alamoti gets the nod over Tom Jenkins on the wing, perhaps due to his finals experience from last year.
Luke Garner drops back to the bench and Daine Laurie moves to the reserves.
Penrith Panthers Team List
1. Dylan Edwards
2. Paul Alamoti
3. Izack Tago
4. Casey McLean
5. Brian To’o
6. Blaize Talagi
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Moses Leota
9. Luke Sommerton
10. Lindsay Smith
11. Scott Sorensen
12. Liam Martin
13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange
14. Brad Schneider
15. Liam Henry
16. Isaiah Papali’i
17. Luke Garner
Reserves
18. Thomas Jenkins
19. Matt Eisenhuth
20. Daine Laurie
21. Mavrik Geyer
22. Trent Toelau
Verdict
Penrith have dominated the Warriors in recent meetings and covered a -9.5 line against them earlier this season without their Origin stars - they should ease to a comfortable victory here, with their defence holding the Wahs to minimal points.
Paul Alamoti has scored at least one try in his last five starts, so take the Panthers winger for another meat pie here.
Panthers -9.5
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Warriors Under 16.5
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Paul Alamoti
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