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Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Finals Tips - Raiders ride into the Preliminary Final

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Thu 11 Sep 2025 19:47

The 2025 NRL Finals clash between Canberra Raiders and Brisbane Broncos sees the Raiders entering as 2.5-point favorites, largely due to their formidable Sunday record at GIO Stadium. Canberra, winners of the Minor Premiership, boast strong form and a potent attack led by Ethan Strange. Brisbane arrives in good scoring touch but with defensive concerns. Key action points include: Raiders leveraging home advantage, shutting down Broncos' Reece Walsh, and the expected impact of Ethan Strange. Expert prediction: Raiders to win with Strange standing out as a game-changer.

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Jeremy Darke 11 Sep 2025
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  • Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos expert predictions for Sunday’s NRL Finals game
  • Kick off is at 4:05 PM (AEST) at GIO Stadium
  • Ethan Strange expected to be a game-changer for Canberra.
  • Brisbane boasts attacking power but faces defensive issues; prediction: Raiders win.
Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Finals Tips

Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos, 2025 NRL Finals- Expert Prediction


GIO Stadium on a Sunday afternoon will be an unconquerable fortress for the Brisbane Broncos with the Canberra Raiders backing up their Minor Premiership with a win in the first week of the finals. 
  • Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos, 2025 NRL Finals- Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Canberra Raiders Form Analysis
  • Canberra Raiders Team News
  • Canberra Raiders Team List
  • Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
  • Brisbane Broncos Team News
  • Brisbane Broncos Team List
  • Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos 2025 NRL Finals FAQ’s
Raiders vs Broncos Finals Cheat Sheet
Download PDF

The Raiders come in as 2.5-point favourites for this match and you can basically say that the handicap is due to this game being played at GIO Stadium on a Sunday. I would arguably say that Canberra is the toughest place to play on a Sunday of any in the NRL and the Raiders record backs that up, going 4-0 this season and only losing 4 Sunday matches at home in their last 5 seasons. 

It is a fast track and the sun will be shining and the Raiders have put up an average of 40 points in their 4 matches on Sunday this season. Brisbane have the ability to put up the points too, averaging 38 points in their last 4 matches this season so this one has the potential to be full of tries. 

Ricky Stuart will be out to shutdown Brisbane livewire Reece Walsh and if successful the Raiders will win fairly comfortably. For Canberra Ethan Strange is the runner and the creator and I’m backing him to be the difference in this match, stepping up to the occasion.

  • Canberra have won 5 of their last 6 matches against the Broncos at GIO Stadium.  
  • Canberra have won 15 of 19 matches played on Sunday at GIO Stadium since 2021.
  • Canberra averaged 32.2 points as the home team in the 2025 season.
  • Ethan Strange has 4 tries in his last 3 matches. 

Head to Head 


The Raiders and Brisbane faced each other back in Round 2 this year with Canberra getting up 32-22 at GIO Stadium. The Raiders found holes in the Broncos defence, breaking their line 7 times in the match and forcing 44 missed tackles.

Canberra have won 5 of their last 6 games against Brisbane at GIO Stadium.

7 of the 8 matches since 2019 have gone over the game total. 

Canberra Raiders Form Analysis


Ricky Stuart and the Raiders opted to rest their stars in the final round of the season and got done by 38 points in a 62-24 loss to the Dolphins. 

Canberra Raiders Team News


The Canberra Raiders have their strongest 17 on the park after resting the majority of their guys last week. After winning 12 of their previous 13 games will the Raiders pay for the loss in momentum?

Canberra have rarely put a foot wrong all season and their record against teams in the Finals is 7 wins and only 1 loss, which came at the hands of Canterbury, which was also their only loss at GIO Stadium this season.

The emergence of Ethan Strange has taken the Raiders attack to a new level with their five-eighth scoring 13 tries while also tallying 12 try assists and 8 linebreak assists, becoming the perfect partner to Jamal Fogarty in the halves who controls the play and often wins the territory battle. 

The Raiders are deserving winners of the minor premiership and will be a tough beat in the finals.

Canberra Raiders Team List


1. Kaeo Weekes  
2. Savelio Tamale
3. Matt Timoko 
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Jed Stuart 
6. Ethan Strange
7. Jamal Fogarty 
8. Josh Papalii  
9. Tom Starling 
10. Joe Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Zac Hosking 
13. Corey Horsburgh 

Interchange
14. Owen Pattie
15. Simi Sasagi 
16. Morgan Smithies
17. Ata Mariota  

Reserves
18. Matty Nicholson 
19. Danny Levi 
20. Ethan Sanders 
21. Noah Martin 
​​​​​​​22. Trey Mooney

Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis


The Broncos needed a lift after a shaky start to the 2025 season and they certainly got it, winning 10 of their final 12 games of the season to lock in a top four finish. In the final month of the season the Broncos went 4-0 with their attack being the highlight averaging 38 points per game. 

With their playmakers out injured the creativity has rested on the shoulders of the Broncos No. 1 Reece Walsh and all in all he has taken a step up, although, there are still some small cracks in his game that could be patched up. Nonetheless, Walsh has crossed the line 5 times and set up another 6 in the last 4 matches.

The concern for Brisbane heading into the 2025 Finals is their defence which has let them down in patches, including giving up 28 points to the Dolphins and 30 to the Cowboys in the last month.  

Brisbane Broncos Team News


Rumours of Adam Reynolds returning for week 1 of the finals have been squashed with Ben Hunt and Billy Walters in the halves. 

Gehamat Shibasaki returns to the centres with Deine Mariner moving to the wing and Jesse Arthars being dropped out of the side. 

Reece Walsh is under watch with a calf complaint but has been named and is expected to play. 

Brisbane Broncos Team List


1. Reece Walsh
2. Josiah Karapani
3. Kotoni Staggs
4. Gehamat Shibasaki
5. Deine Mariner 
6. Billy Walters
7. Ben Hunt 
8. Corey Jensen 
9. Cory Paix
10. Payne Haas
11. Brendan Piakura 
12. Jordan Riki
13. Patrick Carrigan

Interchange
14. Tyson Smoothy 
15. Kobe Hetherington
16. Ben Talty
17. Jaiyden Hunt 

Reserves
18. Jesse Arthars 
19. Fletcher Baker 
20. Delouise Hoeter
21. Jack Gosiewski
​​​​​​​22. Jock Madden

Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos 2025 NRL Finals FAQ’s

How to watch Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos 2025 NRL Finals?

You can watch the Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos 2025 NRL Finals game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos 2025 NRL Finals?

To buy tickets to the Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos 2025 NRL Finals game check the NRL website or the official Canberra Raiders site.

Verdict

Ethan Strange will be the difference, scoring a try as the Raiders score over 22.5 points and get the victory against the Broncos.
Best Bet1: Canberra Raiders Money Line $1.68 at Pandabet - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Canberra Over 22.5 Team Total $1.91 at picklebet - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Ethan Strange Anytime Tryscorer $3.45 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Ethan Strange First Tryscorer $16.00 at dabble - 1 Unit
Canberra Raiders
Money Line
$1.68 - 3 Units
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