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2025 NRL Finals Week 1 Predictions: Who gets through & who goes home

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Tue 09 Sep 2025 14:46

Jeremy Darke 09 Sep 2025

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Melbourne’s defence and finals experience give them edge over weakened Bulldogs.
Penrith’s elite defence likely to stifle the Warriors’ struggling attack.
Roosters’ attacking efficiency may expose Cronulla’s home advantage.
Canberra’s forward strength and home turf boost their chances against Brisbane.

NRL Finals Week 1 Predictions

NRL Finals Week 1 Preview – Stats, Trends & Predictions

Finals footy is here, and Week 1 is stacked with storylines. Ryan and Jez go game by game, breaking down the stats, injury news and key matchups that will decide who survives the opening weekend of the 2025 NRL Finals.

Check out the full game previews as they come in at out dedicated NRL Predictions page.

Storm v Bulldogs – Injuries vs Attack Struggles

Melbourne enter without Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen, but Craig Bellamy’s side are no strangers to finals footy. With Tyran Wishart slotting in and Nick Meaney covering fullback, the Storm’s defence at AAMI Park (15.5 points per game allowed) remains elite.

Canterbury, meanwhile, have been blunted since Lachie Galvin joined the halves. They average a converted try fewer per game with him in the lineup and struggle to create pressure in the opposition 20. Melbourne’s defence and finals pedigree give them the edge.

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Warriors v Panthers – Defence Meets Attack

The Warriors limp into finals, falling out of the top four. Their attack has sputtered since Luke Metcalf’s injury, and now they face Penrith whose defence has rediscovered its dominance.

Against top-eight sides, the Warriors have averaged just 10 points per game. Penrith, meanwhile, rank among the best for goal-line defence and possession control. The data leans heavily towards the Panthers, though predictive modelling surprisingly gives the Warriors a shot at home.

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Sharks v Roosters – Flat-Track Bullies Exposed?

Cronulla boast a 10–2 home record, but many of their wins came against bottom-eight sides. The Roosters, meanwhile, rank first in attack and defence over the last five weeks, with James Tedesco leading the charge.

Try-scoring efficiency is the key stat: Roosters score in just 4.3 tackles inside 20, while Cronulla need 6.6. That efficiency difference could decide this clash.

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Raiders v Broncos – Throwback Blockbuster

The minor premiers Raiders face the Broncos in a matchup dripping with history. Canberra’s attack ranks 3rd in run metres, while their defence ranks 2nd for opposition try-scoring efficiency. Brisbane, without Adam Reynolds, lean heavily on Reece Walsh’s flair.

Canberra’s forwards and territory control could suffocate the Broncos’ attack. With a strong record at GIO Stadium, the Raiders look primed to advance.