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Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm NRL Tips - Sea Eagles love Underdog tag at home vs Storm

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Fri 04 Apr 2025 11:00

Ryan Tucker 04 Apr 2025

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Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 5 NRL game
Kick off is at 4:05 PM (AEST) at 4 Pines Park
Sea Eagles predicted to continue winning streak against Storm.
Manly excels in run meters, linebreaks, and defense this season.
Jason Saab key player, scoring in 3 of 4 games, suggesting viable bets.

Manly to get the choccies this Sunday!

Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm, Round 5 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Sea Eagles will extend their win streak over the Storm at 4 Pines Park as they get up as the Underdog on Sunday.

Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm, Round 5 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Manly Sea Eagles Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Manly Sea Eagles Team News
Manly Sea Eagles Team List
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Melbourne Storm Team News
Melbourne Storm Team List
Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2025 Round 5 FAQ’s

This narrative is built around Jahrome Hughes not suiting up for the Storm. If he ends up playing then I would shift my play to back the Storm, such is his influence in this team.

Recency bias is always alarming but Melbourne could not convert their chances against the Dragons last weekend and given how strong Manly have been defensively this season it is a difficult task seeing where the Storm completely turn that around.

Manly are one of the strongest teams on their home turf and have beaten Melbourne in the last 3 matchups there. Even without Turbo, where they normally have a very poor win percentage, the Sea Eagles have shown enough this season to convince they are elite at both ends of the field.

They are 2nd in Run Metres, 3rd in Linebreaks and score a try for every 7 tackles inside their opponents 20m Zone where they feature the 3rd most of any team in the League. Melbourne are ranked 13th in red zone defence giving weight to Manly being able to convert their chances.

Take the Sea Eagles on the moneyline given that winners in this matchup usually cover. All predictive modelling has the Sea Eagles scoring 20+ points so take their team total over with Jason Saab scoring in 3 of 4 games this season, twice as the first tryscorer.

Manly are 2nd in Run Metres, 3rd in Linebreaks and 3rd in Tackles Inside 20m.
All of Manly’s victories vs Melbourne since 2019 have come as the Underdog.
Manly have averaged 26.6 pts per game in their last 3 at home vs Melbourne.
Jason Saab has scored in 3 of 4 games in 2025, two of those as first tryscorer.

Head to Head

The Sea Eagles and Storm have met in 10 regular season games since the start of the 2019 season with MMelbourne holding a 6-4 record in those games. Manly have though won 3 of the last 4, all three games being at 4 Pines Park.

The Under has hit in 3 straight games and 8 of the last 10 while the winning margin has been 1-12 in 3 of the last 4 meetings. Over the last 10 it is 5-5 between the 1-12 and 13+.

Each team has covered the line when they have won.

Manly Sea Eagles Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-1	2-2	3-1

Manly took care of business against the luckless Eels last weekend with a 26-12 victory notching up their 3rd win of the season from 4 games played. In all three of their wins they have been able to restrict their opponents to just 12 points.

With their attack firing this season Manly rank 2nd in Run Metres, 3rd in Linebreaks and 3rd in Tackles Inside Opposition 20m. This was highlighted with 1599 Metres against the Eels including 612m Post Contact. The team had 6 Linebreaks and 35 tackles inside 20m zone for 4 tries.

Tommy Turbo went down early but the remaining backs all ran for 120+ metres with Jake Turbo notching up 32 tackles in the middle of the field.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
2-2	3-1	0-0	3-1

Manly Sea Eagles Team News

Tom Trbojevic lasted just 1 game in his return from injury, sidelined again now for a knee complaint. Lehi Hopoate goes back to fullback with Clayton Faulalo to the wing.

Josh Aloiai is another player out with injury, Nathan Brown is promoted to the starting side with Tof Sipley joining the bench.

Manly Sea Eagles Team List

1. Lehi Hopoate

2. Jason Saab

3. Tolu Koula

4. Reuben Garrick

5. Clayton Faulalo

6. Luke Brooks

7. Daly Cherry-Evans

8. Nathan Brown

9. Jazz Tevaga

10. Siosiua Taukeiaho

11. Haumole Olakau’atu

12. Ben Trbojevic

13. Jake Trbojevic

Interchange

14. Jake Simpkin

15. Corey Waddell

16. Ethan Bullemor

17. Tof Sipley

Reserves

18. Aaron Schoupp

19. Jake Arthur

20. Dean Matterson

21. Caleb Navale

22. Gordon Chan Kum Tong

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-1	1-2	2-1

The Storm were upset by the Dragons last weekend 14-8 for their first loss of the season. After scoring 56 and 30 points in their first two games, Melbourne were unable to convert their Possession and Territory advantage into points despite 46 tackles inside the Dragons 20m Zone.

Last season Melbourne scored a try for every 5.8 tackles they had inside their opponents 20m zone but creativity and conversion eluded them against a Dragons team that did well to defend their line.

Tyran Wishart and Cam Munster combined for just 307 kick metres showing how much the team is missing Jahrome Hughes in the halfback role.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
1-2	2-1	1-1	1-0

Melbourne Storm Team News

The only change for the Storm coming off a loss to the Dragons is Lazarus Vaalepu replacing Marion Seve on the bench.

Jahrome Hughes is named in the reserves as he continues his rehabilitation from injury. Nelson Asofa-Solomona remains out with concussion.

Melbourne Storm Team List

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen

2. Will Warbrick

3. Jack Howarth

4. Grant Anderson

5. Xavier Coates

6. Cameron Munster

7. Tyran Wishart

8. Stefano Utoikamanu

9. Harry Grant

10. Josh King

11. Shawn Blore

12. Eli Katoa

13. Trent Loiero

Interchange

14. Bronson Garlick

15. Alec MacDonald

16. Tui Kamikamica

17. Lazarus Vaalepu

Reserves

18. Joe Chan

19. Kane Bradley

20. Lazarus Vaalepu

21. Moses Leo

22. Jahrome Hughes

Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2025 Round 5 FAQ’s

How to watch Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2025 Round 5?

You can watch the Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2025 Round 5 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2025 Round 5?

To buy tickets to the Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2025 Round 5 game check the NRL website or the official Manly Sea Eagles site.

Verdict

Manly Sea Eagles v Melbourne Storm

Manly Sea Eagles

Moneyline

$2.55 - 2 Units

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Sea Eagles over 18.5

Team Total

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Jason Saab

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