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Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights NRL Tips - Defensive tussle with Dogs expected to come out on top

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Fri 04 Apr 2025 11:07

Ryan Tucker 04 Apr 2025

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Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 5 NRL game
Kick off is at 6:15 PM (AEST) at Accor Stadium
The Bulldogs are on a winning streak, expected to defeat the Knights in Round 5.
Both teams boast strong defenses; expect a low-scoring match.
Bronson Xerri is in form with recent try-scoring success.

Top Picks for the Doggies vs Knights matchup!

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights, Round 5 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Bulldogs will extend their unbeaten run against the Knights this Sunday in a low scoring affair.

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights, Round 5 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Canterbury Bulldogs Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Canterbury Bulldogs Team News
Canterbury Bulldogs Team List
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Newcastle Knights Team News
Newcastle Knights Team List
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2025 Round 5 FAQ’s

Both of these teams have had trouble putting points on the board over the past few seasons. Last year Canterbury ranked 10th in points scored with 22 per match while Newcastle were 16th with 19.4 per game. This year Canterbury are averaging 26 points per game thanks to a big win over the Titans in round 2 while Newcastle are averaging just 14 pts per outing.

Both teams are extremely tight defensively with the Knights giving up just 15.3 per game, 3rd best in the league and the Bulldogs 14.5 sitting atop the table in Opposition Points.

My expectation in this game is that both teams will put in a lot of effort defensively to restrict their opponent's momentum forward but the Bulldogs will end up having more chances at scoring. Newcastle are 10th in opposition Run Metres which means the Bulldogs will make it to that end of the park.

With both teams struggling to put points on the board I am backing the Under and for the Bulldogs to cover the line. Both goalkickers are averaging under 65% so we will likely see points left out on the park there. The Bulldogs have scored first in all 4 games this season, let’s back Bronson Xerri who has form over his past 2 games.

The Bulldogs have won 2 in a row vs Newcastle covering in both matchups.
These teams are top 3 in defence and over the past few seasons bottom half in attack.
The Bulldogs have scored the first try in all 4 games so far this season.
Bronson Xerri has scored 3 tries in his last 2 games and the Knights give up 43% of tries down their right edge.

Head to Head

The Bulldogs and Knights have met 11 times since the start of the 2019 season. Newcastle have the better record during the span but only by a whisker 6-5. Canterbury have been more successful of late taking both matchups last season and 3 of the last 5.

The Over/Under has been split 1-1 the past two seasons but prior to that 6 of the 7 games played all went Under. The last 5 games straight have been blowouts with an average of 34 pt win margin.

Canterbury Bulldogs Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-0	3-1	2-2

The Bulldogs continue to impress and defy the odds with a 4th straight win last weekend, this time over fellow top 8 contenders Cronulla 20-6.

Canterbury are the only undefeated team remaining in the competition and have allowed just 14 total points to their opponents over their last two games. Their staunch defensive mindset that saw them be so successful last season has continued into 2025 as they lead the league in opposition points per game.

Despite being without a host of top name players the Bulldogs have been going about their business and have been able to produce enough points to put them past their opponents, there are still areas of improvement but they are on the right track.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
3-1	2-2	2-0	2-0

Canterbury Bulldogs Team News

Sitili Tupouniua is suspended and is replaced in the 17 by Kurtis Morrin in the only change for the Bulldogs team that beat Cronulla last weekend.

Jacob Kiraz has been named in the reserves as he pushes for a return from injury.

Canterbury Bulldogs Team List

1. Connor Tracey

2. Blake Wilson

3. Bronson Xerri

4. Stephen Crichton

5. Marcelo Montoya

6. Bailey Hayward

7. Toby Sexton

8. Max King

9. Reed Mahoney

10. Daniel Suluka-Fifita

11. Josh Curran

12. Jacob Preston

13. Jaeman Salmon

Interchange

14. Kurt Mann

15. Harry Hayes

16. Jack Todd

17. Kurtis Morrin

Reserves

19. Lipoi Hopoi

20. Blake Taaffe

21. Jake Turpin

22. Luke Smith

23. Jacob Kiraz

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-1	1-2	0-3

The Knights had the first of their byes last weekend and are 2-1 to start the 2025 season.

Their most recent game was a 26-6 loss to the Titans who they have struggled to beat in matchups over the past few years. The problems the Knights have had with creativity in attack once again reared their ugly heads in the loss. Newcastle had the majority of the Territory and had 44 Tackles in the Titans 20m zone for only one try 5 minutes from full time with the result already decided.

On the defensive end the team is once again solid, allowing just 8 and 12 points across their first two games before allowing 26 to the Titans.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
1-2	0-3	1-0	1-1

Newcastle Knights Team News

Leo Thompson returns to the team and slots straight into his usual backrow spot. Brodie Jones is the player to make way, being named 18th man.

Kai Pearce-Paul and Dylan Lucas remain out.

Newcastle Knights Team List

1. Kalyn Ponga

2. James Schiller

3. Dane Gagai

4. Bradman Best

5. Greg Marzhew

6. Fletcher Sharpe

7. Jack Cogger

8. Jacob Saifiti

9. Phoenix Crossland

10. Leo Thompson

11. Thomas Cant

12. Tyson Frizell

13. Adam Elliott

Interchange

14. Jayden Brailey

15. Jack Hetherington

16. Jermaine McEwen

17. Mat Croker

Reserves

18. Brodie Jones

19. Kyle McCarthy

20. Matt Arthur

21. Jackson Hastings

22. Tyrone Thompson

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2025 Round 5 FAQ’s

How to watch Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2025 Round 5?

You can watch the Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2025 Round 5 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2025 Round 5?

To buy tickets to the Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2025 Round 5 game check the NRL website or the official Canterbury Bulldogs site.

Verdict

Canterbury Bulldogs v Newcastle Knights

Canterbury -5.5

Line

$1.90 - 2 Units

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Bronson Xerri

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