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Penrith Panthers vs North QLD Cowboys NRL Tips - Could the Cows snatch another win against the Panthers?

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Tue 01 Apr 2025 19:00

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Jeremy Darke 01 Apr 2025

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Penrith Panthers vs North QLD Cowboys expert predictions for Friday’s Round 5 NRL game
Kick off is at 6:00 PM (AEDT) at CommBank Stadium
Cowboys are 13.5-point underdogs, known for challenging Penrith.
Defensive struggles for both; betting on total under 24.5 points at halftime.

Jez tells you why the Cows cover at Commbank Stadium.

Penrith Panthers vs North QLD Cowboys, Round 5 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Panthers will likely get away with victory in Nathan Cleary’s return, however this contest will be closer than expected with both teams desperate for their second win of the season with the play being the Cowboys to cover as 13.5-point underdogs.

Penrith Panthers vs North QLD Cowboys, Round 5 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Penrith Panthers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Penrith Panthers Team News
Penrith Panthers Team List
North QLD Cowboys Form Analysis & Betting Trends
North QLD Cowboys Team News
North QLD Cowboys Team List
Penrith Panthers vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2025 Round 5 FAQ’s

There are not many sides in the competition that have a positive record against the Panthers over the last few season, but the Cowboys are one of them and often prove to be a tough opponent for Penrith. The Panthers are finding their feet in the new home at Commbank and are certainly vulnerable in this matchup despite the margin eing over two converted tries.

Defence has been a problem for both of these sides and will be priority number one to start this match. With the game total set at 50.5, I am more inclined to take the under on the half time total of 24.5, considering how these two have leaked points in the opening four rounds.

Jeremiah Nanai will come off the bench again for the Cowboys and will bring some heavy impact to close out the first half. With Penrith shuffling around in their starting pack expect a fresh Nanai to find a hole and cross the line with great bench odds as an anytime try scorer.

The Panthers have lost 3 of their last 4 games at Commbank Stadium
The Cowboys have won 3 of their last 5 against Penrith.
9 of the last 10 matches between Penrith and North Queensland have had a game total under 50.5 points.
Second rowers have scored 3 tries in the last 2 games against the Panthers

Head to Head

The Cowboys and Panthers split the pot last season, both winning away from home early in the season.

The Cows grabbed a 16-6 win at BlueBet Stadium, while the Panthers returned the favour with a 26-20 victory at Queensland Country Bank Stadium.

North Queensland have won 3 of the last 5 matches against Penrith.

Penrith Panthers Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

The five-beat hasn’t gone to plan for the reigning premiers who are facing their fourth consecutive defeat after failing to win on Aussie soil since their victory in Vegas.

A screw is loose in the machine at Penrith with the Panthers averaging 29.5 points conceded per game in 2025, which is simply unheard of in this new era under Ican Cleary.

Alarm bells don’t need to be rung just yet, with the Panthers going up against tough competition to start the year, while also dealing with a heavy injury toll to their veterans and leaders like Nathan Cleary , Dylan Edwards and Brian To’o, but things will need to click again soon.

With the return of Cleary, the Panthers attack will find their stride again, but the focus will be on their defensive issues in the upcoming weeks.

2025 Betting Trends

Penrith Panthers Team News

Penrith are boosted by the return of Nathan Cleary in a straight swap for Trent Toelau who suffered a knee injury in the Panthers last loss.

Dylan Edwards still remains on the sideline and will now be joined by Brian To’o who suffered a hamstring injury. Casey McLean comes back in on the wing.

Isaiah Papali’i will move from the front row to the back row to cover for the concussed Scott Sorensen. Matthew Eisenhuth comes onto the interchange bench.

Penrith Panthers Team List

1. Daine Laurie

2. Paul Alamoti

3. Izack Tago

4. Thomas Jenkins

5. Casey McLean

6. Jack Cole

7. Nathan Cleary

8. Moses Leota

9. Mitch Kenny

10. Lindsay Smith

11. Isaiah Papali'i

12. Liam Martin

13. Isaah Yeo

Interchange

14. Brad Schneider

15. Matthew Eisenhuth

16. Liam Henry

17. Luke Garner

Reserves

18. Blaize Talagi

19. Mavrik Geyer

20. Luron Patea

21. Luke Sommerton

22. Jesse McLean

North QLD Cowboys Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-3	2-2	2-2

The Cowboys got their first win of the 2025 season with a 30-20 victory over the Canberra Raiders.

The attack of North Queensland has taken some time to reset after the losses of the veteran backs in the offseason, however, Jake Clifford made a statement with two tries, a try assists 2 linebreak assists and a linebreak of his own, whipping the Cowboys attack into form.

It was the first time the North Queensland had scored over 16 points this season. While their was improvement in their attack, their defence still needs some work, conceding 20+ points in all 4 of their matches this season.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
2-2	2-2	1-1	0-2

North QLD Cowboys Team News

The Cowboys are unchanged from last week with Todd Payton sticking with the side that earned the Cowboys their first win of the season.

North QLD Cowboys Team List

1. Scott Drinkwater

2. Robert Derby

3. Jaxon Purdue

4. Viliami Vailea

5. Murray Taulagi

6. Tom Dearden

7. Jake Clifford

8. Jordan McLean

9. Reece Robson

10. Jason Taumalolo

11. John Bateman

12. Kai O'Donnell

13. Reuben Cotter

Interchange

14. Sam McIntyre

15. Jeremiah Nanai

16. Griffin Neame

17. Coen Hess

Reserves

18. Harrison Edwards

19. Zac Laybutt

20. Tom Duffy

21. Karl Lawton

22. Thomas Mikaele

Penrith Panthers vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2025 Round 5 FAQ’s

How to watch Penrith Panthers vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2025 Round 5?

You can watch the Penrith Panthers vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2025 Round 5 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Penrith Panthers vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2025 Round 5?

To buy tickets to the Penrith Panthers vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2025 Round 5 game check the NRL website or the official Penrith Panthers site.

Verdict

Penrith Panthers v North QLD Cowboys

Jeremiah Nanai will score from the bench as the Cowboys cover the 13.5 points as the underdog. This matchup is predicted to start slow with the half time total under 24.5 points.

North Queensland +13.5

Handicap/Line

$1.91 - 3 Units

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Under 24.5

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Jeremiah Nanai

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$6.20 - 1 Unit

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