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Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions AFL Tips - UnderDog to cover in big show at Norwood

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Fri 11 Apr 2025 07:36

Ryan Tucker 11 Apr 2025

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Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 5 AFL game
The game will be played at Norwood Oval, with the bounce at 4:15 PM (AEST)
Brisbane Lions remain undefeated in 2025 but struggle to cover the line.
Bulldogs show resilience with significant defensive tactics and aim to cover the line.
Key players Sam Darcy and Ed Richards are expected to make a major impact.

Top picks for Bulldogs vs Lions

Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions, Round 5 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Doggies will keep things close enough to cover the line this Saturday at Gather Round.

Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions, Round 5 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Western Bulldogs Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Western Bulldogs Team News
Western Bulldogs Team List
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane Lions Team List
Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 5 FAQ’s

Brisbane remain undefeated to start the comp but they have been far from convincing in their victories. They are yet to cover the line as favourites, something they failed to do on 14 of 20 occasions last year during the regular season.

The Bulldogs were brave in their fight back from 32 points down against the Dockers last weekend with their defensive tactics on Freo’s midfield something they will need to replicate once again in this matchup. Should they succeed then their opportunity to snatch this game could be within reach.

The Lions have been elite at getting the ball forward, ranking 2nd in Inside 50’s so far this year but fall to 4th last in Scoring Shots Inside 50. The Bulldogs have allowed the 4th fewest Inside 50’s to start the year despite having a number of players missing time with injury.

My expectation is that the Bulldogs will put their effort into making a good start which Brisbane have failed to do in their 4 games so far. The Lions will no doubt come roaring back but the Doggies will do enough to keep it within a couple of goals.

Take the Bulldogs to cover the line, Sam Darcy to continue his form with 3 goals and Ed Richards to get his fair share of touches in an at times compacted middle.

The Lions are yet to cover this season and went 6-14 ATS as the favourite last year.
The Bulldogs covered 4 of 6 last year as the Underdog and are 1-1 so far this season.
Sam Darcy has kicked 12 goals in 4 games to start 2025.
Ed Richards is averaging 25.3 disposals per game.

Head to Head

The Bulldogs and Lions have met just 7 times in the regular season since the beginning of 2019 with Brisbane holding a 4-3 advantage in wins. The Bulldogs won their only finals matchup during this span, 79-78 back in 2021.

5 of the last 7 games have gone Over the Game Total while the Winning Margin has been 40+ in 2 of the last 3 games played, both of those wins by Brisbane. Otherwise 5 of 7 games have finished between 1-39.

Western Bulldogs Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-2	2-2	2-2

The Doggies fell short of a comeback against the Dockers in Perth last weekend eventually going down 97-81 after their opposition had built a 32 point lead at the end of the 2nd quarter.

They had the lion's share of chances, racking up 63 Inside 50’s to just 44 for their opponent but failed to capitalise, ending the game with a 36.5% efficiency rate. The Bulldogs also dominated around stoppages with English winning the hitouts and the midfielders winning centre clearances 15-10.

At times though they were caught lacking defensively as their opponent had a couple runs of multiple goals in a row, keeping momentum flowing in one direction. Sam Darcy kicked 5 goals in the loss while Tom Liberatore had 30 disposals with 6 clearances.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
2-2	2-2	2-2	0-0

Western Bulldogs Team News

Early news suggests Laitham Vandermeer will be monitored and put through a fitness test following him being subbed out of the loss to the Dockers. Taylor Duryea is in a similar situation.

Marcus Bontempelli is still at least another week away with Adam Treloar scheduled to return in 3-5 weeks.

Western Bulldogs Team List

B: B.Khamis, L.Jones, L.Bramble

HB: J.Johannisen, R.Lobb, B.Dale

C: B.Williams, T.Liberatore - C, S.Davidson

HF: C.Hynes, A.Naughton, R.Sanders

F: J.O’Donnell, S.Darcy, J.Harmes

FOLL: T.English, M.Kennedy, E.Richards

I/C: L.Cleary, J.Dolan, J.Freijah, L.McNeil, R.West

EMG: J.Busslinger, H.Gallagher, C.Poulter

In: J.Johannisen, C.Hynes, L.Cleary

Out: O.Baker (Suspension), L.Vandermeer (Injured), H.Gallagher (Omitted)

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-0	0-4	1-3

The Lions controlled their game against the Tigers last weekend from start to finish running out 28 point winners and breaking a 16 year run of losing to the Tigers at the MCG.

Brisbane remain one of three undefeated teams to start the season with any questions of a Premiership hangover now well and truly dispelled. Lachie Neale continues to warm into the season picking up 42 disposals and 8 clearances in the victory over Richmond while Josh Dunkley added 30 disposals while also making 10 tackles in the game.

The team has been elite at reaching their attacking zone this year reaching their season average of Inside 50’s again with 60 forward entries in the matchup. They dominated the middle clearances and around the stoppages with the Tigers having little to stop a rampaging outfit.

Despite winning all 4 games so far to start the year, Brisbane are yet to cover the line.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
0-4	1-3	4-0	0-0

Brisbane Lions Team News

Kai Lohmann will likely miss the game against the Doggies with injury. Tom Doedee will need a few more weeks getting his legs under him before returning to the top flight.

Brisbane Lions Team List

B: D.Zorko, J.Payne, R.Lester

HB: N.Answerth, H.Andrews - C, D.Wilmot

C: J.Fletcher, Z.Bailey, J.Berry

HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, H.McCluggage

F: C.Rayner, S.Day, L.Morris

FOLL: O.McInerney, J.Dunkley, L.Neale

I/C: C.Ah Chee, W.Ashcroft, L.Ashcroft, W.McLachlan, B.Reville

EMG: S.Marshall, D.Gardiner, D.Fort

No changes

Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 5 FAQ’s

How to watch Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 5?

You can watch the Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 5 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 5?

To buy tickets to the Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 5 game check the AFL website or the official Western Bulldogs site.

Verdict

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane

Take the Bulldogs to cover the line, Sam Darcy to continue his form with 3 goals and Ed Richards to get his fair share of touches in an at times compacted middle.

Bulldogs +13.5

Line

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Sam Darcy 3+

Goals

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Ed Richards 25+

Disposals

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