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Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats Tips - Crows to hold firm in an arm wrestle at the Adelaide Oval on Thursday night

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Tue 08 Apr 2025 12:26

Adam Cusworth 08 Apr 2025

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Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 5 AFL game
The game will be played at Adelaide Oval, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
Can the Crows secure a win in front of home fans to commence Gather Round?
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Adam gives you his best tips for the opening match of AFL Gather Round.

Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats, Round 5 2025 - Expert Prediction

The opening match of Gather Round shapes as a beauty and Adelaide can edge past Geelong in what should be a real arm-wrestle.

Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats, Round 5 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Adelaide Crows Team News
Adelaide Crows Team List
Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Geelong Cats Team News
Geelong Cats Team List

The Crows are 3-1 after the first month of footy and should arguably be 4-0 after a few decisions went against them in the one-point loss to the Gold Coast Suns last weekend.

Their three-pronged forward line of Taylor Walker, Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe have been on fire in recent weeks, while Izak Rankine has cemented himself as one of the top players in the competition.

Geelong sit at 2-2 with their wins both coming at home, GMHBA Stadium. It was a 39-point win over the hapless Demons last weekend.

The Crows head in as slight favourites but we should never underestimate the Cats. They will turn this into a grind with their defence but with superior attacking options inside 50, the home side can get the job done in front of their home fans.

Take the Crows between the 1-39 point margin. Izak Rankine will be a matchwinner, while Tom Stewart will provide stiff resistance for the Cats.

The Crows top the competition for goals per game this season.
Adelaide rank 2nd for disposals per game, Geelong are 14th
Tom Stewart has averaged 30 disposals in his past four matches against Adelaide.
Riley Thilthorpe has kicked 14 goals this season

Head to Head

Geelong have won the last four matches between the two sides. Three of those were at GMHBA Stadium. The Cats took out the Round 2 clash last season at the Adelaide Oval by 19 points before claiming a five-point thriller in Round 21.

Jeremy Cameron was the difference with six goals in that match, while Tom Stewart had 28 disposals. Riley Thilthorpe booted three for the Crows.

Tom Stewart is one player the Crows will need to monitor and has averaged 30 disposals from his past four against Adelaide. Rory Laird and Jordan Dawson have both gone at 25+ in that period. Cameron has kicked 15 in his past four against the Crows. The Cats have won three of their past four against Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval.

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-1	3-1	2-2

Adelaide have been the highest scoring side this year, averaging over 19 goals per game. They produced some big scores in early season wins over St Kilda, Essendon and North Melbourne before going down 90-91 against Gold Coast.

Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker have combined for 36 goals so far and are the first trio in the AFL to kick 10+ goals through four games since 2016.

The Crows have been finding a stack of the footy and rank 2nd for disposal differential, 4th for clearances and 4th for inside 50s. Jake Soligo, Jordan Dawson, Matt Crouch and Rory Laird are all averaging 25+ disposals this season.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
3-1	2-2	1-1	2-0

Adelaide Crows Team News

Plenty of interest in the fitness of Izak Rankine with the star playmaker copping a knock to his calf. Matt Crouch was rested from the Gold Coast match and is the obvious inclusion, should Rankine not come up. Don't expect too many other changes to the side that went down to the Gold Coast Suns. Of their best 22, Josh Rachele is the biggest name on the sidelines and he will be out of action for at least a few more weeks with broken ribs.

Adelaide Crows Team List

Team list yet to be released.

Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-2	3-1	2-2

The Cats controlled the football last week against Melbourne, setting up the 39-point win with uncontested possessions, before capitalising with 17 marks inside 50. Patrick Dangerfield played primarily as a forward and booted three goals, while Tyson Stengle snagged two.

The former Bulldog, Bailey Smith, picked up 28 disposals, which is bang on his average for the season.

Geelong will structure up defensively in a bid to thwart Adelaide and are conceding just 10 goals per game this season. The Cats missed Tom Stewart in their two losses (coming off injured in one). No coincidence that Geelong’s two wins have been in with the general in the back half.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
3-1	2-2	1-2	1-0

Geelong Cats Team News

Jack Henry will miss from the side that took on Melbourne last weekend with the young defender sustaining a hamstring injury. Jake Kolodjashnij is still at least a week away

Geelong Cats Team List

Team list yet to be released.

Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 5 FAQ’s

How to watch Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 5?

You can watch the Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 5 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 5?

To buy tickets to the Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 5 game check the AFL website or the official Adelaide Crows site.

Verdict

Adelaide v Geelong

The Crows are red-hot but Geelong's defensive structures led by Tom Stewart will keep the Cats in this. Riley Thilthorpe can continue his good form in front of goal

Adelaide Crows 1-39

Winning Margin 40+

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