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Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers AFL Tips - Demons on Tracc for first win

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: 11 Apr 2025

Ryan Tucker 11 Apr 2025

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Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 5 AFL game
The game will be played at Adelaide Oval, with the bounce at 7:35 PM (AEST)
Melbourne Demons predicted to defeat Essendon in Round 5.
Match likely to be close, with strategic plays in attacking zones.
Key players: Steven May and Christian Petracca expected to perform well.

Top picks for Demons vs Bombers this weekend!

Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers, Round 5 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Dees will get a win on the board this weekend with a short margin of victory expected over Essendon at Adelaide Oval as part of Gather Round.

Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers, Round 5 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Melbourne Demons Team News
Melbourne Demons Team List
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Essendon Bombers Team News
Essendon Bombers Team List
Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2025 Round 5 FAQ’s

Melbourne have no doubt been poor to start the year but at one point or another it will click and we will see this team of superstars connect in dynamic football action. Max Gawn showed last weekend he is still an elite ruckman and with Essendon allowing the 3rd highest number of Marks Inside 50 to their opposition, the Dees problems could solve themselves here.

The Demons midfield will have enough speed and power to match it with the Bombers and it will all come down to how efficiently they can convert their chances when they get the ball forward.

Essendon were able to restrict Port Adelaide to just 60 points in their most recent game but 111 to Hawthorn and 161 to Adelaide show there are gaping holes ready to be exploited if given the chance.

My expectation is that this will be a game decided in the attacking 50 zones with Melbourne turning up their accuracy compared to their previous 4 games. They will edge in front and hold on for victory.

Take the Dees on the moneyline and a game Total Under that coincides with trends at Gather Round last year. Steven May will get his fair share of touches intercepting balls in the backline and we are backing Tracc to kick a double.

Melbourne have won 4 of their last 5 vs Essendon.
6 of 9 games at Gather Round last year went Under the Game Total.
Steven May took 5 intercept marks last game vs Geelong and Melbourne take the 3rd highest number of intercept marks per game in 2025.
Christian Petracca has scored 10 goals in 6 games vs Essendon and has had two 2 goal games already this season.

Head to Head

Melbourne own the recent head to head record against Essendon 4-2 dating back to the beginning of the 2019 season. They won the single matchup last season by 17 points but lost the inaugural Gather Round matchup 104-77 in 2023.

The Over/Under is split evenly 3-3 while all 6 recent matchups have finished with a margin below 30 points.

Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
0-4	1-3	2-2

The Demons suffered another demoralising loss last weekend posting their lowest score since July 2023 in a 85-46 drubbing at the hands of Geelong.

Melbourne have problems to work out and it is difficult to see where they start. In the loss to Geelong they showed promise through three quarters but failed to put any indent on the scoreboard in the 4th, allowing their opponent to run away with the game.

The Dees had 50 forward entries but took just 5 marks Inside 50 in the entire game, constantly under pressure no matter how they tried. Their defensive game forced Geelong to chip the ball around instead using the run but that many uncontested possessions for a team like the Cats doesn’t go unpunished.

Max Gawn showed why he is still considered one of the top rucks of the game with 34 hitouts and 5 clearances of his own.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
1-3	2-2	0-2	0-2

Melbourne Demons Team News

More bad news for the Dees, Jake Lever will miss up to two months with surgery required on his ankle.

Xavier Lindsay and Matt Jefferson could return should they pass fitness tests. Koltyn Tholstrup and Luker Kentfield will be pushing for spots after passing fitness tests.

Melbourne Demons Team List

B: J.Bowey, S.May, H.Petty

HB: T.Rivers, T.McDonald, C.Salem

C: K.Chandler, J.Viney, E.Langdon

HF: J.Henderson, B.Fritsch, K.Pickett

F: J.Melksham, J.van Rooyen, C.Spargo

FOLL: M.Gawn - C, C.Petracca, H.Langford

I/C: C.Windsor, C.Oliver, X.Lindsay, H.Sharp, T.Sparrow

EMG: D.Turner, J.Billings, T.Fullarton

In: X.Lindsay

Out: D.Turner (Omitted)

Essendon Bombers Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-2	1-2	2-1

The Bombers enjoyed a week off in Round 4 following a solid 12 point victory over Port Adelaide in round 3, 72-60 at Marvel.

It was their first win of the young season after struggling out of the blocks against Hawthorn and being touched up by the Crows in round 2. But it took 3 quarters for them to wake up, trailing at every break the Bombers nailed a 4 goal final term to seal the win with accuracy in front of goal a major problem.

Essendon went 9.18 in the matchup still proving they can get to their scoring shots but the misses could have almost come back to haunt them as has been the case in recent history.

Sam Draper nailed 2 goals while having 10 hitouts and 2 clearances while Zach Merrett is averaging 32 disposals per game at a below par 64% efficiency.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
1-2	2-1	1-1	0-1

Essendon Bombers Team News

Jye Caldwell will miss a month with a hamstring injury while Tom Edwards is done for the season with a knee. Darcy Parish, Archie Perkins, Elijah Tsatas and Peter Wright will all need to pass fitness tests to be up for selection.

Essendon Bombers Team List

B: A.McGrath, B.McKay, J.Ridley

HB: M.Redman, Z.Reid, J.Prior

C: X.Duursma, A.Perkins, A.Roberts

HF: J.Gresham, N.Caddy, N.Martin

F: H.Jones, S.Draper, I.Kako

FOLL: N.Bryan, Z.Merrett - C, S.Durham

I/C: B.Hobbs, D.Shiel, W.Setterfield, J.Menzie, S.El-Hawli

EMG: E.Tsatas, L.Hayes, A.Day-Wicks

In: A.Perkins, W.Setterfield

Out: J.Caldwell (Injured), T.Edwards (Injured)

Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2025 Round 5 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2025 Round 5?

You can watch the Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2025 Round 5 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2025 Round 5?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2025 Round 5 game check the AFL website or the official Melbourne Demons site.

Verdict

Melbourne v Essendon

Melbourne Demons

Moneyline

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Under 169.5

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Steven May 25+

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