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Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions AFL Tips - Lions to show why they are king of the jungle

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 03 Apr 2025 12:09

Ryan Tucker 03 Apr 2025

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Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 4 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 4:15 PM (AEDT)
Brisbane Lions are predicted to dominate Richmond Tigers in AFL 2025 Round 4.
Richmond struggles defensively, allowing over 270 points in the last two games.
Key player Charlie Cameron expected to be pivotal against Richmond.

The top picks for AFL Saturday!

Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions, Round 4 2025 - Expert Prediction

Brisbane will put together their first complete performance of the young season controlling this game from wire to wire, putting another dampener on a season that started so bright for Richmond.

Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions, Round 4 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Richmond Tigers Team News
Richmond Tigers Team List
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane Lions Team List
Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 4 FAQ’s

The Tigers looked so hot in their win over Carlton in Round 1 but as the weeks have progressed we can see that it was likely more to do with Carlton being bad rather than Richmond being good. The Tigers have had 140 and 135 points put on them in consecutive weeks by opponents i Port and St Kilda that have also been smacked by other teams.

Brisbane have been slow out of the gates in all three of their games in 2025 having to claw back leads late in the 2nd half to take victory. My expectation is that this game will be circled as a spot where they can focus on preparation and mindset with the footy stuff being able to take care of itself against an underperforming opponent. The Lions love to move the ball by foot and that is Richmond’s kryptonite right now as these teams are at opposite ends of the rankings in Kicking stats.

Take the Lions to cover the large line on offer, Richmond’s team total to stay low and load up on Goalkickers from Brissy including Charlie Cameron!

Brisbane have caned the Tigers in their last 2 matchups with winning margins of 119 points and 81 points.
The Tigers have allowed 275 points to their opponent in their last 2 games.
Richmond allowed 3 players to kick 3+ goals in both of their losses to Port Adelaide and St Kilda.
Charlie Cameron kicked 5 goals vs Richmond last season and has averaged 2+ goals in 3 of his last 4 seasons.

Head to Head

The Tigers actually own the head to head record for regular season wins dating back to the start of the 2019 season with a 4-3 advantage over the Lions. Brisbane have though won the last two games, both played at the Gabba.

In addition to the regular season games, the Tigers and Lions have played 3 finals games during this span with Brisbane winning in 2022 & 2020 while the Tigers took the win in 2019.

The Over has hit in the Game Total in 5 straight regular season matchups while the winning margin in the past two seasons has been 81 pts and 119 pts both times to Brisbane.

Richmond Tigers Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-2	1-2	2-1

The Tigers got busted up for the second straight week in a 135-53 loss to St Kilda in Round 3. Most of the damage was done in the second half with only 8 points splitting the sides at the main break.

Richmond then allowed 23 scoring shots to their opponent in the second half, 14 of those turning into majors while only adding 19 total points to their own tally. The Tigers were unable to control the ball for large portions of the game with their opponents gaining a 409-330 advantage in total disposals.

The Tigers efficiency Inside 50 was poor, totalling just 46.5% while they allowed St Kilda to convert at a 64.3% rate. Tim Taranto had 8 clearances and sits 2nd in the team ranking for average disposals per game with 22.3 per outing.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
1-2	2-1	1-0	0-2

Richmond Tigers Team News

Sam Banks has made it through concussion protocol and replaces Rhyan Mansell in the lineup who is suspended. Hugo Ralphsmith and Josh Smilie did not do enough in their fitness tests to be selected.

Dion Prestia is 2-4 weeks away while Liam Fawcett is set to return over the next fortnight.

Richmond Tigers Team List

B: N.Broad, B.Miller, N.Vlastuin

HB: L.Trainor, J.Short, T.Brown

C: S.Banks, K.McIntosh, J.Trezise

HF: J.Ross, S.Campbell, S.Green

F: H.Armstrong, T.Lynch, S.Lalor

FOLL: T.Nankervis - C, T.Taranto, J.Hopper

I/C: J.Blight, T.Sonsie, K.Smith, J.Bauer, T.Dow

EMG: M.Rioli, C.Gray, S.Ryan

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-0	0-3	0-3

The Lions have turned into second half specialists recently, having come from behind in all three games this season to take victory. You can either look at the positives of their resolve and ability to turn momentum but you can also look at the slow starts they have had and cast a critical eye on their preparation.

The team is relatively healthy with most of their top 22 on deck yet they are averaging just a tick over 10 points in first quarters through three games played so far this season.

Dayne Zorko has been instrumental in the momentum swings over the past month and he also tops the team for most average disposals at 26.7 per outing. He is also delivering the ball with a 75% efficiency rate which ranks him 5th among qualified players in the team.

The win against the Cats last weekend was highlighted by a 67-48 dominance of Inside 50’s but their efficiency in that area dipped below their season average (44.1%) to just 35.8%.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
0-3	0-3	3-0	0-0

Brisbane Lions Team News

Kai Lohmann is out after injuring his ankle, Darcy Fort has been left out with the return of the big O in Oscar McInerney.

Tom Doedee will return from a third knee reco through the VFL.

Brisbane Lions Team List

B: D.Zorko, J.Payne, R.Lester

HB: N.Answerth, H.Andrews - C, D.Wilmot

C: J.Fletcher, Z.Bailey, J.Berry

HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, H.McCluggage

F: C.Rayner, S.Day, L.Morris

FOLL: O.McInerney, J.Dunkley, L.Neale

I/C: C.Ah Chee, W.Ashcroft, L.Ashcroft, W.McLachlan, B.Reville

EMG: D.Gardiner, J.Tunstill, D.Fort

Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 4 FAQ’s

How to watch Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 4?

You can watch the Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 4 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 4?

To buy tickets to the Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 4 game check the AFL website or the official Richmond Tigers site.

Verdict

Richmond v Brisbane

Take the Lions to cover the large line on offer, Richmond’s team total to stay low and load up on Goalkickers from Brissy including Charlie Cameron!

Brisbane -45.5

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Richmond Under 65.5

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C Cameron 3+

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