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North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans AFL Tips - Player Props dominate in matchup which could turn either way
This expert analysis focuses on the North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans AFL Round 4, 2025 game, highlighting player performance, team form, and betting trends. North Melbourne's consistent player contributions, notably Harry Sheezel's high disposal average and Nick Larkey's goal accuracy, are key. The Sydney Swans face challenges with injuries but rebound well from defense. The betting advice suggests focusing on player props rather than picking a side. Sheezel is expected to have over 30 disposals, while Nick Larkey is a good bet for 3+ goals.
- North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 4 AFL game
- The game will be played at Marvel Stadium, with the bounce at 7:35 PM (AEDT)
- Analysis favors player props over choosing a side due to team uncertainties.
- North Melbourne's Harry Sheezel expected to have over 30 disposals.
- Sydney's Nick Blakey crucial in capitalizing on Kangaroos' inefficiencies.
Top Player Props for the Kangaroos vs Swans matchup!
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans, Round 4 2025 - Expert Prediction
This is one of the hardest games to handicap this weekend so instead of taking a side, we are loading up on player props and totals!
- North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans, Round 4 2025 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Recent Form
- 2025 Betting Trends
- North Melbourne Kangaroos Team News
- North Melbourne Kangaroos Team List
- Sydney Swans Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Recent Form
- 2025 Betting Trends
- Sydney Swans Team News
- Sydney Swans Team List
- North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 4 FAQ’s
What worries me with taking a side is that I haven’t seen enough of North Melbourne as a team this season to know how consistent they can be as a unit. Individually they have players you can count on in Sheezel, Davies-Uniacke & Zurhaar but as a team I need more.
Sydney are battling injuries and were half a second away from starting the season 0-3. Papley is a major contributor for them and an energy guy who can turn a game with his run on the ball, with him out injured it is tough to see where they get that momentum.
The Swans like to rebound from their back half which shows in Nick Blakey leading the team in disposals, likewise for the Kangaroos they are great at taking intercept marks and Harry Sheezel is averaging a touch under 30 touches per game.
With Sydney giving up the most intercept marks to opponents so far this season we are backing Sheezel to go over 30 disposals as our top player pick. Nick Larkey has impressed up top averaging 4 goals a game get him for 3+ on a good number. Lastly from the Swans, if they are to have any chance of winning it will be off the back of Blakey taking advantage of inefficient ball use by the Kangaroos in their forward half. Back him for 25+.
- The Game Total has gone Over in 5 straight matchups with these two teams.
- Harry Sheezel averages 28.3 disposals per game in 2025 and comes up against the team that gives up the most Intercept Marks to their opposition in the AFL.
- Nick Blakey is averaging 23.3 disposals per game this season with North having just 34% efficiency rate Inside 50 last weekend.
- Nick Larkey is averaging 4 goals per game this season and is kicking at a 75% accuracy rate.
Head to Head
North Melbourne have not beaten Sydney since the 2015 Semi Final which accounts for 12 straight wins for the Swans.
Since the beginning of the 2019 season the teams have met on 7 occasions with 4 games being played at Marvel. All games in that span bar last season’s lone meeting have finished with winning margins of 1-39 for the Swans with 5 of those games coming in with a 14 pt or lower margin.
The Over has hit in 5 straight games while North are 4-3 ATS in the 7 games played.
North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
North Melbourne have sounded the drum that they will not be the walkover team that they have been for the past few years. Despite a 36 point loss to the Crows last weekend there are a lot of bright spots for the team that has spent the better part of a decade rebuilding.
The ball movement which was shown in the 59 point win over the Dees in Round 2 carried over to last week’s loss in Adelaide with the Kangaroos beating the Crows in possession statistics but unable to convert those chances into points.
Their efficiency Inside 50 dropped to 34% in the game compared to 48% on the season and while they were still accurate from their set shots it was getting to the shots that was the barrier this time around.
Nick Larkey is killing it up front averaging 4 goals a game, the 2nd best number in the league with the most games played.
2025 Betting Trends
| ATS | Over/Under | 1-39 | 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
North Melbourne Kangaroos Team News
Griffin Logue returns from injury for the Roos while draftee Matt Whitlock will make his AFL debut.
Toby Pink and Will Phillips have been omitted from the squad. Zac Fisher will go through concussion protocol and is looking at 1-2 weeks on the sideline while Eddie Ford will miss a few weeks with a hammy.
North Melbourne Kangaroos Team List
B: C.Comben, A.Corr, G.Logue
HB: L.McDonald, C.Daniel, H.Sheezel
C: B.Scott, L.Davies-Uniacke, J.Simpkin - C
HF: C.McKercher, N.Larkey, R.Hansen Jr
F: P.Curtis, J.Darling, C.Zurhaar
FOLL: T.Xerri, T.Powell, L.Parker
I/C: F.O’Sullivan, D.Tucker, D.Stephens, M.Whitlock, J.Konstanty
EMG: R.Hardeman, F.Maley, B.Teakle
Sydney Swans Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
The Swans are a little busted up at the moment with 11 players currently on the injury list and a few more with niggling complaints that are hampering efforts on the field.
The early season bye would have helped somewhat to overcome some of those issues but the Swans have a big task ahead of them after starting 1-2 in 2025.
Their Opening Round loss to the Hawks showed a lack of preparation and effort while they allowed the Lions to come roaring back from a large deficit to win in Round 1. Prior to their bye last weekend the Swans took a win in a tight tussle over Freo at Optus Stadium which cannot be understated.
Sydney have for the past few seasons been strong in rebounding out of their defensive end and they once again rank high coming in at 4th in the league in that metric. Nick Blakey leads the team in disposals with 23.3 per game and is hitting at 80% efficiency, one of the best numbers in the AFL.
2025 Betting Trends
| ATS | Over/Under | 1-39 | 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Sydney Swans Team News
Tom Papley sustained a foot injury with a timeline yet to be confirmed by the club. He is replaced in the 22 by Caiden Cleary in the only change for the Swans.
Logan McDonald didn’t make the cut despite being fit to play. Taylor Adams, Robbie Fox and Callum Mills have all suffered setbacks in their recoveries from various injuries. Lewis Melican and Harry Cunningham could be back over the next fortnight.
Sydney Swans Team List
B: J.Hamling, D.Rampe, N.Blakey
HB: S.Wicks, M.Roberts, O.Florent
C: B.Campbell, I.Heeney, J.Lloyd
HF: T.Hanily, W.Hayward, P.Ladhams
F: J.Amartey, T.McCartin, Co.Warner
FOLL: B.Grundy, Ch.Warner, J.Rowbottom - C
I/C: R.Bice, J.Jordon, H.McLean, A.Sheldrick, C.Cleary
EMG: B.Paton, A.Francis, C.Mitchell
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 4 FAQ’s
How to watch North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 4?
You can watch the North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 4 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 4?
To buy tickets to the North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 4 game check the AFL website or the official North Melbourne Kangaroos site.
Verdict
We are backing Sheezel to go over 30 disposals as our top player pick. Nick Larkey has impressed get him for 3+ on a good number. Blakey will take advantage of inefficient ball use by the Kangaroos in their forward half. Back him for 25+.
H Sheezel 30+
Disposals
$2.50 - 2 Units
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N Larkey 3+
Goals
$1.95 - 2 Units
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N Blakey 25+
Disposals
$2.55 - 2 Units
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Over 176.5
Game Total
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