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Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons Tips- Cats to inflict more pain on struggling Demons

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 03 Apr 2025 08:22

Adam Cusworth 03 Apr 2025

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Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons expert predictions for Friday’s Round 4 AFL game
The game will be played at GMHBA Stadium, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEDT)
Can the Demons pull off against the odds victory at the cattery?
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons, Round 4 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Geelong Cats Team News
Geelong Cats Team List
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Melbourne Demons Team News
Melbourne Demons Team List

Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons, Round 4 2025 - Expert Prediction

Geelong return to their home deck of GMHBA Stadium in Friday night footy and are set to cash in against an out of sorts Melbourne outfit.

The Cats were big winners at the venue in Round 1 against Fremantle but have since dropped their past two matches with those coming against St Kilda and the Brisbane Lions.

Last week, they led the Lions by 32-points in the second term before a last half fadeout saw them go down by nine.

Things have gone from bad to worse for Melbourne with their once invincible midfield that boasts Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca seemingly losing their aura.

Geelong will be primed for a four-quarter effort in front of their home fans at the cattery and things could get ugly for the Demons in this one

Melbourne have won just three of their past 25 at GMHBA Stadium
The Demons have lost their past two by more than 39.5 points
Jeremy Cameron has averaged just under five goals per game in his past five matches at the venue
The Demons have failed to kick 75 points or above in 2025

Head to Head

Melbourne claimed an eight-point victory the last time the two sides met, which was in Round 8 last season at the MCG. Geelong won the two prior to that, which were at GMHBA Stadium.

Clayton Oliver has averaged 31 disposals in his past three outings against the Cats, while Kozzie Pickett has booted eight from his past four. Max Gawn has kicked six from his past four. Six of the past seven matches have been decided by 39.5 points or less.

Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-2	2-1	2-1

Geelong will look to focus on winning the contested possessions and clearances. They rank 6th and 3rd in these measures across their past 10 matches and all but broke even with the Lions last week.

The Cats have won nine of their past 15. Form at home reads better with five victories from their past six, including a 78-point defeat over Fremantle in Round 1. Bailey Smith ran rampant in that game with 32 disposals and had 25 against the Lions last weekend.

Scoring was tough in the wet conditions against the Lions and Patrick Dangerfield was their only multiple goalkicker. Expect a rebound from Jeremy Cameron, who has played further up the ground in recent weeks. He has averaged 3+ goals per game in his past nine matches and has gone just under five per game in his last five at GMHBA Stadium.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
2-1	2-1	0-2	1-0

Geelong Cats Team News

Tom Stewart was a late withdrawal from the Brisbane match but is expected to be ok to return from a knee injury to take on the Demons. Shannon Neale has an ankle concern but is expected to be ok.

Geelong Cats Team List

B: C.O’Sullivan, J.Henry, M.Blicavs

HB: L.Humphries, T.Stewart, Z.Guthrie

C: B.Smith, P.Dangerfield - C, O.Dempsey

HF: B.Close, G.Miers, T.Stengle

F: S.Neale, J.Cameron, O.Henry

FOLL: S.De Koning, M.Holmes, T.Atkins

I/C: M.O’Connor, S.Mannagh, J.Bowes, O.Mullin, T.Clohesy

EMG: M.Duncan, M.Knevitt, R.Stanley

In: T.Stewart, S.Mannagh

Out: M.Knevitt (Managed), J.Clark (Omitted)

Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
0-3	1-2	2-1

Melbourne’s poor start to the season is a continuation of their fadeout at the end of 2024 and they have now lost eight of their past nine.

Scoring has dried right up and they have failed to kick 75 points or above in 2025. At the other end of the ground, they have conceded 120 and 125 in their past two weeks with opposition midfield running them ragged on the turnover.

Clayton Oliver has provided some resistance, averaging over 30 disposals this season but the next best is Christian Salem with 24. They have missed Kozzie Pickett up forward, while their leading goalkicker in 2024, Bailey Fritsch, has registered just one major in his three matches this season.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
1-2	2-1	0-1	0-2

Melbourne Demons Team News

Jake Lever and Charlie Spargo are possible inclusions for Melbourne with that duo overcoming respective issues. Caleb Windsor has recovered from a foot issue, while Kozzie Pickett will return. That group will add some much needed depth. Daniel Turner kicked five goals at VFL level and will also be considered.

Melbourne Demons Team List

B: J.Bowey, S.May, H.Petty

HB: T.Rivers, T.McDonald, C.Salem

C: C.Windsor, J.Viney, T.Sparrow

HF: K.Pickett, D.Turner, J.Henderson

F: B.Fritsch, J.van Rooyen, H.Langford

FOLL: M.Gawn - C, C.Petracca, E.Langdon

I/C: C.Spargo, C.Oliver, J.Melksham, H.Sharp, K.Chandler

EMG: J.Billings, J.Adams, A.Johnson

In: C.Windsor, K.Pickett, D.Turner, C.Spargo

Out: J.Billings (Omitted), X.Lindsay (Injured), A.Johnson (Omitted), B.Howes (Omitted)

Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 4 FAQ’s

How to watch Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 4?

You can watch the Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 4 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 4?

To buy tickets to the Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 4 game check the AFL website or the official Geelong Cats site.

Verdict

Geelong v Melbourne

Geelong to be too strong at home with Jeremy Cameron back amongst the goals

Geelong -31.5

Handicap -31.5

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