North Melbourne vs Essendon AFL Round 16 Tips - Roos go over .500 as they bounce the Bombers

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Wed 24 Jun 2026 09:35

Jeremy Darke 1 hour ago

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North Melbourne are backed to cover the -15.5 line vs Essendon.
Essendon have lost 9 straight and average under 58 points per game.
Under 173.5 total points and Luke Parker 25+ disposals are top props.
The game will be played at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, 28th June, with the bounce at 3:15 PM (AEST)

North Melbourne vs Essendon AFL Round 16 Tips

North Melbourne vs Essendon, Round 16 2026 - Expert Prediction

North Melbourne are backed to cover the line against an Essendon side still battling major issues in attack.

North Melbourne vs Essendon, Round 16 2026 - Expert Prediction
North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
North Melbourne vs Essendon Team List & News
North Melbourne vs Essendon AFL 2026 Round 16 FAQ’s

The Roos come into this off back-to-back wins and are building confidence at the right time. Their 73-48 win over Richmond was not always pretty, but it showed another layer to this side, with Cooper Trembath kicking four goals and Harry Sheezel, Caleb Daniel and Luke Parker controlling the ball.

Essendon continue to struggle badly. The Bombers have lost nine straight, averaging just 57.8 points per game across their last 5 games. Their attack has lacked connection and they have been held to 50, 67, 55, 56 and 50 points in their last five matches.

The model over at footybets.com.au has North Melbourne winning by 18 points, while the external projection has the Roos by 14.2. With Essendon sitting last and still struggling to generate scoring pressure, North Melbourne to cover the -15.5 line is the preferred side.

The total also looks too high despite the model leaning over. Essendon’s lack of scoring power makes the Under 173.5 appealing, especially if North control territory but do not turn the game into a shootout.

Luke Parker is the player prop lean. He has cleared 25+ disposals in three of his last five and is coming off a strong role across half-back, where he had 30 disposals and 11 marks against Richmond.

North Melbourne have won 3 of thier last 4 matches.
Essendon have lost their last nine matches.
Essendon are averaging just 57.8 points across their last five games, by an average margin of 34 points.
Luke Parker has hit 25+ disposals in three of his last five matches.

Head to Head

North Melbourne won the most recent meeting by 12 points earlier this season, but Essendon have had the better of this matchup overall in recent years.

The Bombers had won twelve straight before that Round 3 result, although their current form and scoring profile make this a very different setup.

North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis

North Melbourne have steadied their season with consecutive wins over West Coast and Richmond.

The Roos were much cleaner after half-time against the Tigers, with Trembath giving them a strong forward target and Sheezel again creating plenty of scoring chances. Caleb Daniel’s 40 disposals at 90 per cent efficiency also gave them control behind the ball.

The concern is still consistency, with their last five including heavy defeats to Fremantle and Adelaide, but they are now 7-7 and have enough midfield depth to expose Essendon.

Essendon Bombers Form Analysis

Essendon’s season continues to spiral.

The Bombers have lost nine in a row and their biggest problem remains scoring. They have averaged only 57.8 points per game across that run, and even when they get enough of the ball, they have struggled to create clean looks forward of centre.

Zach Merrett, Sam Durham and Will Setterfield continue to work hard, but the forward connection is not there. Against a North Melbourne side with stronger ball movement and more reliable scoring options, Essendon need a major lift to stay inside the number.

North Melbourne vs Essendon Team List & News

North Melbourne Kangaroos Team News

North Melbourne will be without Tristan Xerri, which leaves Taylor Goad and Cooper Trembath as likely ruck options unless Wil Dawson is brought in after a strong VFL performance. Zac Fisher and Riley Hardeman also pushed their cases in the reserves.

Essendon Bombers Team News

Essendon should regain some important names after the bye, with Andrew McGrath, Jye Caldwell, Isaac Kako and Darcy Parish expected to be available. Angus Clarke, Matt Guelfi, Jayden Nguyen and Vigo Visentini are also available again but may return through the VFL.

North Melbourne vs Essendon AFL 2026 Round 16 FAQ’s

How to watch North Melbourne vs Essendon AFL 2026 Round 16?

You can watch the North Melbourne vs Essendon AFL 2026 Round 16 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to North Melbourne vs Essendon AFL 2026 Round 16?

To buy tickets to the North Melbourne vs Essendon AFL 2026 Round 16 game check the AFL website or the official North Melbourne site.

Verdict

North Melbourne Kangaroos v Essendon Bombers

North Melbourne are the better side right now and should have enough to cover the -15.5 line. Essendon’s attack makes the Under 173.5 the best totals angle, while Luke Parker 25+ disposals is the preferred player prop.