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AFL Round 16 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Jesse Mclure

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Last updated: Tue 23 Jun 2026 12:44

Jesse Mclure 2 hours ago

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Jesse tips winners & margins for all Round 16 AFL matches, with analysis.
Sydney, Hawthorn, Carlton, Collingwood, Adelaide, North Melbourne & Fremantle all backed.
Key focus: experts say form and consistency will define these crucial matchups.

True Footy's Just the Tips for AFL Round 16.

AFL Round 16 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match

The final week of the AFL bye rounds is here, and the race to September is starting to take shape.

AFL Round 16 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match
Brisbane vs Sydney Prediction
Hawthorn vs GWS Giants Prediction
Carlton vs West Coast Prediction
Collingwood vs Richmond Prediction
Adelaide vs Port Adelaide Prediction
North Melbourne vs Essendon Prediction
Fremantle vs Gold Coast Prediction

With most clubs now through their bye and only one week remaining before the fixture returns to normal, every result carries extra significance. The battle for the top four is intensifying, wildcard contenders are fighting for position, and a handful of clubs are running out of opportunities to save their season.

Here are Jesse’s tips and predicted margins for every AFL Round 16 game.

Brisbane vs Sydney Prediction

The 2024 Grand Final replay headlines the round, and Sydney remain the team to beat despite travelling north.

The Swans comfortably handled Brisbane earlier in the season and continue to look like one of the AFL's premier sides. Chad Warner, Isaac Heeney and the returning Errol Gulden remain central to their success, while Brisbane are still searching for consistency despite recent wins over Gold Coast and Richmond.

At the Gabba, the Lions should be more competitive than they were in Round 1, but Sydney’s ability to punish mistakes and generate scores from turnover gives them the edge.

Jesse’s Tip: Sydney Swans by 10 points

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Hawthorn vs GWS Giants Prediction

These sides have already produced one thriller this season, with GWS winning in Opening Round.

The Giants remain one of the hardest teams in the competition to trust, capable of looking elite one week before producing a disappointing performance the next. Hawthorn, meanwhile, continue to strengthen their top-four credentials, with Jai Newcombe and Dylan Moore driving a system that consistently creates quality scoring opportunities.

At the MCG, Hawthorn’s ability to control territory and use space should prove the difference.

Jesse’s Tip: Hawthorn by 12 points

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Carlton vs West Coast Prediction

Carlton’s resurgence under Josh Fraser has transformed their season.

The Blues have won five straight games and dramatically improved both their defensive structure and ball movement. Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps continue to set the tone through the midfield, while Charlie Curnow remains a constant threat inside 50.

West Coast have shown genuine improvement in recent weeks and are playing their best football in years, but travelling to Marvel Stadium against one of the competition’s hottest teams is a difficult challenge.

Jesse’s Tip: Carlton by 30 points

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Collingwood vs Richmond Prediction

Collingwood remain firmly in the wildcard hunt and should see this as a crucial four points.

Nick Daicos continues to drive the Magpies, while Richmond are still battling through a difficult rebuild and one of the league’s worst injury lists. The Tigers have competed hard for most of the season but continue to struggle against stronger opposition.

In front of a large MCG crowd, Collingwood should be too strong.

Jesse’s Tip: Collingwood by 36 points

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Adelaide vs Port Adelaide Prediction

The Showdown rarely follows the form guide.

Adelaide enter as one of the AFL’s form teams, with Jordan Dawson, Riley Thilthorpe and Dan Curtin all playing important roles in the club’s rise up the ladder. Port Adelaide have quietly improved under Josh Carr, but they continue to fall short in close contests.

Expect another tight Showdown, but Adelaide’s consistency and firepower should get them over the line.

Jesse’s Tip: Adelaide Crows by 19 points

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North Melbourne vs Essendon Prediction

North Melbourne remain alive in the finals race and have another opportunity to bank a valuable win.

Luke Davies-Uniacke and Jai Simpkin continue to lead a midfield group that has taken major strides this season, while Essendon’s injury crisis continues to make life difficult. The Bombers have remained competitive at times but are struggling to turn effort into results.

North should have enough class to get the job done.

Jesse’s Tip: North Melbourne Kangaroos by 18 points

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Fremantle vs Gold Coast Prediction

This matchup brings back memories of last year’s elimination final, but the trajectory of the two clubs has changed dramatically.

Fremantle have established themselves as the competition benchmark, sitting atop the ladder with just one loss. Caleb Serong, Hayden Young and Shai Bolton continue to drive a side that rarely loses control of games.

Gold Coast still boast elite midfield talent through Christian Petracca, Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson, but their inconsistency remains a major concern. At Optus Stadium, the Dockers should be too strong.

Jesse’s Tip: Fremantle by 36 points