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GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Qualifying Final Tips - ENGIE a too Giant task for the Hawks

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu 04 Sep 2025 10:54

Jeremy Darke 04 Sep 2025

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GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks expert predictions for Saturday’s Qualifying Final AFL game
The game will be played at ENGIE Stadium, with the bounce at 3:15 PM (AEST)
Hawthorn’s defence is strong, but they struggle versus top-8 teams (3-7 record).
Prediction: GWS to win in a low-scoring, close match; Lachie Ash tipped for 25+ disposals.

GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Qualifying Final Tips

GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks, Qualifying Final 2025 - Expert Prediction

GWS have been in a mood in the last 10 weeks of the season and that will continue into the finals this weekend as they take down the Hawks who have struggled against top sides in 2025.

The Giants have been brutal, kicking 100+ points in 9 of their last 10 matches, letting their attack do all the talking, laying down the challenge to their opponents to keep pace. The Hawks are almost the polar opposite, starving their opponents of the ball with the third-ranked defence in the AFL, allowing just 73.5 points per game.

The concern for me though is that the Hawks have done this with a 12-1 record against bottom 10 teams but have been unable to find the same defence to attack structure against top eight teams, going 3-7 this season.

Traditional matches between these two teams are a strong battle of the midfield with plenty hard gets, slowing down the scoring which could be a benefit to the Hawks. However, with the form of GWS and their unbeaten record against Hawthorn at ENGIE im siding with Western Sydney but still taking the under 169.5 points with the Hawks able to slow down the scoring to some extent.

With some unknowns about the GWS forward line due to injury i am liking the disposal markets best and will be on the 25+ and 30+ disposals for Lachie Ash, who will step up against the Hawks.

GWS have never lost to Hawthorn at ENGIE Stadium going 6-0
13 of the last 15 matches between GWS and Hawthorn have been decided by a 1-39 margin.
The last 10 matches between the Giants and Hawks has had a game total under 169.5 points.
Lachie Ash has 25+ disposals in 18 of 20 matches this season

Head to Head

The head to head count doesn’t get any closer than a clean split of 8 wins each and 1 draw between the Giants and Hawks.

Hawthorn survived the wild winds in Tasmania this year to get up against GWS 76-64 in their latest clash.

The previous 6 matches between the Hawks and Giants has hit under the game total.

GWS Giants Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	3-2	3-2

GWS are on an absolute tear, winning 9 of their last 10 matches to close out the home and away season, losing only to the Western Bulldogs, who are their bogey team losing 10 of the last 12 games against them.

In their previous 9 victories they have been ruthless with the ball in their hands. Despite missing Coleman medalist Jesse Hogan for large chunks of that stretch, they kicked 102 points or more in their 9 victories and an average of 109.88 points per game.

With such a versatile midfield the Giants are a danger from anywhere on the field and are finding different targets inside 50 each and every game. Toby Greene has been an absolute beast with an average of 2.37 goals per game in his last 8 matches, while averaging 16 disposals and 3.75 inside 50s per game.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
13-10	11-12	10-6	6-1

GWS Giants Team News

There are some concerns for the Giants heading into the finals series with a long list of tests before the weekend. Jesse Hogan, Josh Kelly and Jake Strinker will all need to be given the okay on Thursday before being named.

Stephen Coniglio will likely be cleared from concussion, however, Jack Buckley is still likely to miss this week.

GWS Giants Team List

B: C.Idun, S.Taylor, H.Himmelberg

HB: L.Whitfield, L.Aleer, L.Ash

C: J.Kelly, S.Coniglio, R.Angwin

HF: T.Bedford, A.Cadman, D.Jones

F: T.Greene - C, J.Hogan, C.Brown

FOLL: K.Briggs, F.Callaghan, T.Green

I/C: J.Fonti, J.Riccardi, X.O’Halloran, H.Thomas, J.Stringer

EMG: M.Gruzewski, H.Rowston, J.Wehr

In: J.Kelly, J.Hogan, J.Stringer

Out: J.Wehr (Omitted), H.Rowston (Omitted), M.Gruzewski (Omitted)

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	2-3	1-4

Hawthorn’s form has swung like a saloon door this season, with a common trend putting a cloud over just how far they can go in the finals.

The Hawks closed out the season with a 89-79 loss to Brisbane at the Gabba just as they looked to be building some strong momentum heading into September after beating the pies by 64 points and brushing aside Melbourne. The worry is their record against top sides this season, going 3-7 against teams that are still in the race for the premiership.

The stats that jump out are turnovers, giving the ball over 65 times per game (16th in the AFL). Also their ability to deny their opponents from clearing the ball out of danger at the stoppages where they also rank 16th in the AFL.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
13-10	8-15	11-7	4-1

Hawthorn Hawks Team News

Josh Weddle returned well for Box Hill and will be up for selection for the Finals. Harry Morrison is also a test but is not expected to be cleared.

Hawthorn Hawks Team List

B: J.Battle, T.Barrass, B.Hardwick

HB: J.Impey, J.Sicily - C, M.D’Ambrosio

C: K.Amon, J.Ward, D.Moore

HF: C.Macdonald, M.Chol, N.Watson

F: J.Gunston, C.Dear, J.Ginnivan

FOLL: L.Meek, J.Newcombe, J.Worpel

I/C: J.Scrimshaw, C.Nash, C.Jiath, J.Weddle, S.Butler

EMG: L.Breust, C.Mackenzie, M.Ramsden

In: J.Weddle, S.Butler

Out: M.Lewis (Omitted), L.Breust (Omitted)

GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Qualifying Final FAQ’s

How to watch GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Qualifying Final?

You can watch the GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Qualifying Final game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Qualifying Final?

To buy tickets to the GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Qualifying Final game check the AFL website or the official GWS Giants site.

Verdict

GWS Giants v Hawthorn

Lachie Ash will star with 30+ disposals as the Giants win by a 1-39 margin in a low scoring contest.

GWS Giants

1-39 Winning Margin

$2.35 - 2 Units

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Lachie Ash

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30+ Disposals

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