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Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies AFL Qualifying Final Tips - Crows to soar past stumbling Magpies

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 04 Sep 2025 11:21

Adam Cusworth 04 Sep 2025

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Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies expert predictions for Thursday’s Qualifying Final AFL game
The game will be played at Adelaide Oval, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
Can the Magpies overcome moderate form in lead up to finals?
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies AFL Qualifying Final Tips

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies, Qualifying Final 2025 - Expert Prediction

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies, Qualifying Final 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Adelaide Crows Team News
Adelaide Crows Team List
Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Collingwood Magpies Team News
Collingwood Magpies Team List

The Adelaide Crows will scrape past Collingwood in what should be a cracking Qualifying Final to kick off this year’s Finals Series.

Adelaide earnt the right to host the game after completing the home and away season on top of the ladder with a win-loss record of 18-5. The knocked over North Melbourne by 13-points in the last round of the season, making it 10 wins in a row in the process.

Collingwood finished 4th with a 16-7 record but managed just two wins in their final seven and only just scraped past Melbourne late in the game with a six-point victory.

The Magpies cannot be underestimated, however. They have an edge in finals experience over Adelaide and have an excellent record against the Crows, despite going down by three points the last time the two sides met, which was as recently as Round 23.

But with a couple of injury concerns, this might be just beyond them. Adelaide’s ability to restrict their opposition scoring has been a hallmark of their game this season and at the other end, they have a couple of matchwinners, including Riley Thilthorpe and Darcy Fogarty.

Izak Rankine will be out of action, leaving the likes of Ben Keays and James Peatling with extra responsibility. That pair booted three goals each in the win over the Kangaroos.

Given the defensive prowess of both lineups, take the total points under with Adelaide to win in the 1-39 point range. For player props, Collingwood’s Nick Daicos looks rock solid for 30+

Adelaide have won their past 10, Collingwood have lost five of their past seven
The Magpies have lost their past five against top eight opponents.
The total points in the Round 23 clash between the two sides was just 115
Nick Daicos has had 30+ disposals in five of his past six matches against Adelaide, he had 29 in the other.

Head to Head

The two sides met as recently as Round 23 at the Adelaide Oval and it was Adelaide in a thriller by three points. Collingwood got off to a fast start in that match and led by 25 points at quarter time, while they also registered 71-37 inside 50s for the match.

Collingwood had won the 10 matches prior to that between the two sides, including the Round 11 encounter this season at the MCG by 10 points. They have six of their past seven against the Crows at the Adelaide Oval.

Nick Daicos has averaged 34 disposals from his past six matches against the Crows. Adelaide’s Jordan Dawson has had 25+ in his past four of his past five against Collingwood.

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
5-0	2-3	3-2

Adelaide have won 12 of their past 13 matches and have a 6-5 record against sides in the top half of the ladder this season. They have won their past 10 at the Adelaide Oval and are 12 from 13 at the venue in 2025.

Over the past 10 rounds, Adelaide rank 4th for scoring and 2nd for fewest points conceded. Riley Thithorpe booted three goals against North Melbourne in the final home and away game and has 21 from his past seven matches, hitting the 2+ in six of those.

Adelaide are not a high-disposal side, ranking just 14th over the course of the season. Jordan Dawson and Rory Laird both average 24.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
14-9	9-14	10-5	8-0

Adelaide Crows Team News

Adelaide will be without Izak Rankine for at least another three matches. Max Michalanney is expected to be available to return from a hamstring injury, while it is touch and go for Josh Rachele, who has missed more than a month with a knee injury.

Adelaide Crows Team List

B: J.Worrell, M.Keane, R.Laird

HB: W.Milera, N.Murray, M.Michalanney

C: I.Cumming, J.Dawson, D.Curtin

HF: B.Keays, R.Thilthorpe, A.Neal-Bullen

F: Z.Taylor, T.Walker, D.Fogarty

FOLL: R.O’Brien, S.Berry, J.Soligo

I/C: B.Smith, L.Pedlar, J.Peatling, M.Hinge, H.Bond

EMG: C.Burgess, J.Butts, B.Dowling

In: M.Michalanney, L.Pedlar

Out: B.Dowling, S.Draper (both omitted)

Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	1-4	0-5

Collingwood were the dominant side up until Round 17 and had a 14-2 record before losing five of seven and finishing on 16-7. They have lost their past five matches against top eight opponents.

Their structure and team defence has tightened up since going down to Hawthorn by 64 points back in Round 22 and against Adelaide they conceded just nine goals before giving up 11 against Melbourne.

The Magpies booted the last four goals of the game against Melbourne with Jamie Elliot and Lachie Schultz both kicking two for the evening. Elliot has 52 goals for the season and has kicked 2+ in his past two matches. Nick Daicos had 27 disposals against Melbourne and has had 25+ in nine of his past 10. He had 30+ in three of those and 40+ in two.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
11-12	7-16	10-5	6-2

Collingwood Magpies Team News

Jeremy Howe was subbed out of the Melbourne match with a groin injury and is unlikely to play. Brody Mihocek (hand) and Beau McCreery (foot) are expected to be ok. Jordan de Goey continues to build fitness after an injury interrupted 2025. Bobby Hill has missed more than a month due to personal reasons and is unlikely to be available.

Collingwood Magpies Team List

B: B.Frampton, D.Moore - C, B.Maynard

HB: H.Perryman, J.Daicos, W.Parker

C: J.Crisp, N.Long, S.Sidebottom

HF: J.De Goey, T.Membrey, B.McCreery

F: J.Elliott, B.Mihocek, L.Schultz

FOLL: D.Cameron, S.Pendlebury, N.Daicos

I/C: P.Lipinski, I.Quaynor, D.Houston, R.Steele, M.Cox

EMG: T.Mitchell, D.McStay, E.Allan

In: W.Parker, M.Cox

Out: J.Howe (Injured), D.McStay (Omitted)

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Qualifying Final FAQ’s

How to watch Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Qualifying Final?

You can watch the Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Qualifying Final game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.