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Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL Qualifying Final Tips - Cats to edge past Lions in Qualifying Final thriller

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 04 Sep 2025 11:22

Adam Cusworth 04 Sep 2025

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Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions expert predictions for Friday’s Qualifying Final AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
Can the Cats upset the Lions at the MCG
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL Qualifying Final Tips

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions, Qualifying Final 2025 - Expert Prediction

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions, Qualifying Final 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Geelong Cats Team News
Geelong Cats Team List
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane Lions Team List

Geelong will make an early finals statement by knocking over the Brisbane Lions in front of what should be a big crowd at the MCG on Friday night.

While Brisbane has had the better of Geelong in their last three encounters, including last year’s thrilling Preliminary Final at the MCG, the Cats are in prime position to turn the tables this time around.

With 12 wins from their past 14 matches, Geelong is firing on all cylinders and comes into the finals with an incredibly strong percentage of 141.5 — the highest in the competition.

Their offensive potency is matched only by their defensive stability, ranking 2nd in attack and 4th in defence, making them a dangerous combination for any team. Jeremy Cameron, who’s booted 83 goals for the season, will lead the charge, supported by a well-balanced forward line, including Shannon Neale and a host of crafty small forwards like Tyson Stengle.

While Brisbane has proven they can challenge the top sides — they’ve claimed seven of their last nine and boast an impressive midfield featuring Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage, and Lachie Neale — they have shown occasional signs of vulnerability.

Despite ranking high in clearances and inside-50s, the Lions' finishing in front of goal has been inconsistent, and their recent struggles with accuracy in front of goal raise questions.

Their statistical profile has also slipped from last year, now ranking just 6th for attack and 8th for defence, while they have been wobbly at times this season, highlighted by recent losses to Sydney at home and a 10-goal drubbing by Gold Coast.

Geelong, on the other hand, is the epitome of consistency and reliability, while from a list management perspective, they come into this much healthier with just one player on their injured list, while they have been able to nurse some big names through to the business end due to their soft recent draw.

Take the Cats in what should be another classic between the two sides. Jeremy Cameron looms as a match winner, while Josh Dunkley can offer plenty of resistance for Brisbane. He might be the one to line up on Bailey Smith

Geelong have won 12 of their past 14 matches
The past five matches between the two sides have been decided by 1-39 points
Jeremy Cameron kicked four goals for the Cats the last time the two sides met
Josh Dunkley has had 25+ disposals in his past five matches against Geelong.

Head to Head

Brisbane have won the past three between the two sides, including both matches this season, as well as the 2024 Preliminary Final by 10 points at the MCG. Jeremy Cameron kicked four goals for Geelong the last time the two sides met, while Logan Morris booted five for Brisbane. Dayne Zorko had 33 disposals for the Lions.

Zorko has had 30+ disposals in two of his past three against Geelong, while Josh Dunkley has had 25+ in his past five. The two sides have met three times at the MCG and it is Brisbane with the advantage at 2-1.

Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
5-0	3-2	3-2

Geelong have won 12 of their past 14 matches but have not really been tested out too much in that period with the 12 wins all against sides outside of the top eight, while the two losses in that period were to GWS and Brisbane.

The Cats have kicked over 100 points in 12 of their past 15 matches and it is Jeremy Cameron that has capitalised with 83 goals for the season, just 17 away from the magical ton. However, his average is just over two goals per game with 19 from the nine matches this season against sides in the eight.

Bailey Smith comes off a 34 disposal match against Richmond and has gone 30+ in 11 of his past 14. Tom Atkins and Max Holmes had over 25 against the Tigers. Holmes has had 25 or more in five of his past six.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
14-9	13-10	8-5	9-1

Geelong Cats Team News

Geelong will regain Shannon Neale from suspension and have just one player on the injury list, Toby Conway. A number of big names featured in the Cats last VFL match and are available for selection, including Cam Guthrie, Mitch Duncan and Ollie Henry

Geelong Cats Team List

B: Z.Guthrie, J.Henry, C.O’Sullivan

HB: L.Humphries, T.Stewart, O.Mullin

C: M.Blicavs, M.Holmes, O.Dempsey

HF: B.Close, S.Mannagh, T.Stengle

F: S.Neale, J.Cameron, P.Dangerfield - C

FOLL: S.De Koning, B.Smith, T.Atkins

I/C: M.O’Connor, G.Miers, J.Clark, J.Bowes, J.Martin

EMG: J.Bews, M.Knevitt, O.Henry

In: S.Neale, M.O’Connor, J.Clark

Out: R.Stanley (Injured), M.Knevitt (Omitted), J.Bews (Omitted)

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	3-2	2-3

Brisbane have won seven of their past nine matches and have claimed their past three against sides in the top eight, handing Fremantle a 57-point defeat in Round 23 before their victory over Hawthorn. Over the course of the season, they have a 9-4 record against sides in the top half.

In the past five rounds, the Lions rank in the top three in the competition for disposals, while they are in the top three for clearances and inside 50s. Finishing off has been a slight issue, with the Lions ranking 13th for goals per inside 50 and they will need to improve their conversion after kicking 11.23 against the Hawks.

The Lions had a quartet of players that booted two goals in that match, incuding Cam Rayner, who has hit the 2+ in four of his past five, as well as Charlie Cameron, who has booted five goals in his past two matches. Hugh McCluggage was the Lions best with 32 disposals and two goals. Will Ashcroft had 28 disposals against the Hawks and has gone 25+ in six of his past seven.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
12-11	8-15	13-4	3-2

Brisbane Lions Team News

Brisbane are set to regain the two-time Brownlow Medallist, Lachie Neale, for the finals series, while Jarrod Berry is set to play, despite dislocating his shoulder in Round 23 against Fremantle.

Brisbane Lions Team List

B: D.Zorko, D.Gardiner, R.Lester

HB: D.Wilmot, H.Andrews - C, B.Starcevich

C: H.McCluggage, L.Neale, J.Berry

HF: C.Cameron, S.Day, Z.Bailey

F: C.Rayner, L.Morris, C.Ah Chee

FOLL: D.Fort, J.Dunkley, W.Ashcroft

I/C: K.Lohmann, J.Fletcher, L.Ashcroft, S.Marshall, T.Gallop

EMG: B.Reville, D.Joyce, O.McInerney

In: L.Neale, J.Berry

Out: B.Reville (Omitted), J.Tunstill (Omitted)

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Qualifying Final FAQ’s

How to watch Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Qualifying Final?

You can watch the Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Qualifying Final game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Qualifying Final?

To buy tickets to the Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Qualifying Final game check the AFL website or the official Geelong Cats site.

Verdict

Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions

Cats in a classic with Cameron standing tall, Dunkley amongst the disposals for Lions

Geelong 1-39

Winning Margin 1-39

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