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Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers AFL Round 1 Tips - Blues to bounce back after shocker in opener

Adam Cusworth

Editor

Last updated: Wed 11 Mar 2026 10:46

Adam Cusworth 11 Mar 2026

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Carlton Blues are favourites and expected to respond strongly after their heavy Opening Round defeat.
Richmond were competitive in 2026 but will they have enough class to cover the line?
Key players: Sam Walsh for disposals, Tim Taranto to rack up possessions through stoppages.
The game will be played at the MCG on Thursday 12th March, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEDT).

Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers AFL Round 1 Tips

Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers, Round 1 2026 - Expert Prediction

Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers, Round 1 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Carlton Blues Team News
Carlton Blues Team List
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
Richmond Tigers Team News
Richmond Tigers Team List
Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers AFL Round 1 FAQ’s

Carlton will bounce back from their disastrous season opener with a Round 1 win against Richmond at the MCG on Thursday night.

The Blues enter under pressure after their 63-point defeat to Sydney in a match where they conceded 12 goals in the third quarter and come up against a fresh Richmond Tigers outfit that have delivered shocks in this fixture before.

But Carlton’s midfield remains their greatest weapon and shapes as the decisive battleground in this contest. The Blues don’t need to hit the panic button- they showed during the pre-season that their on-ball group can dominate territory when they get the game on their terms, particularly through stoppage and clearance work.

Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps will lead a deep rotation that can control possession and generate repeat entries inside 50, which will see the Blues be able to dictate the tempo of the match.

Richmond show promise but with a youthful mix that is still finding consistency at AFL level, they will struggle to sustain pressure and scoring chains against more experienced opposition.

Tim Taranto will shoulder much of the workload around stoppages and looks an excellent prospect in disposal markets, while Sam Lalor can have influence in the clearance battle.

The Tigers will look to keep the contest tight and scrappy and a low scoring match looks to be on the cards but Carlton should create enough scoring opportunities to take control of the match.

Sam Walsh has averaged 30 disposals in his past four matches and comes off 32 last week
Tim Taranto has had 25+ disposals in four of his past five against Carlton, reaching 30+ in three of those
Carlton were 14th for scoring in 2025 and Richmond were last
The Tigers have lost 12 of their last 14 matches

Head to Head Stats

Richmond claimed the corresponding match last season by 13 points in what was a shock upset and it was Tim Taranto that starred with 30 disposals, while Patrick Cripps had 32 for the Blues.

Carlton won the two matches prior to that in 2024 with Cripps playing a major role. He has averaged 32 disposals in his past four matches against the Tigers.

Carlton Blues Form Analysis

Carlton opened the 2026 season with a 63-point loss to Sydney at the SCG and had no answers after half time, conceding 18 goals, including 12 in the third quarter. Despite a strong midfield showing, they were unable to match the Swans’ territory control and forward pressure. Sam Walsh collected 32 disposals and Jagga Smith picked up 27, while Marc Pittonet snagged three goals.

The Blues’ pre-season showed promise with wins over Brisbane in Match Simulation and Geelong in the Community Series. They will be keen to atone for a disappointing 2025 campaign that saw them end in 11th spot on the ladder with a 9-14 win-loss record.

Carlton Blues Team News

Carlton enter Round 1 with a largely settled lineup after getting through Opening Round without any major injuries. The only concern is Adam Saad, who is managing hamstring tightness and will need to prove his fitness during the week.

The Blues’ core remains intact. Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps and George Hewett will again drive the midfield rotation, while Jacob Weitering will anchor the defence. The key will be finding scoreboard conversion with the new look forward set up since Charlie Curnow parted ways with the club.

Carlton Blues Team List

B: L.Cowan, J.Weitering, H.Dean

HB: M.McGovern, L.Young, O.Florent

C: C.Chesser, P.Cripps - C, O.Hollands

HF: W.Hayward, H.McKay, B.Ainsworth

F: J.Smith, B.Kemp, L.Fogarty

FOLL: M.Pittonet, G.Hewett, S.Walsh

I/C: Z.Williams, C.Lord, E.Hollands, M.Carroll, H.O’Keeffe

EMG: T.Byrne, J.Boyd, A.Moir

In: L.Cowan, M.Carroll, H.O’Keeffe

Out: A.Saad (Injured), A.Moir (Omitted), L.Reidy (Omitted)

Richmond Tigers Form Analysis

Richmond entered 2025 firmly committed to a rebuild after shedding a large portion of their premiership-era experience. The Tigers finished 17th on the ladder with a 5-18 record as they prioritised youth and development across the season.

Their pre-season build-up showed flashes of promise but also highlighted the growing pains associated with a young list, going down to Essendon in Match Simulation then Melbourne in the Community Series in a weather interrupted and shortened match. Tom Lynch booted two goals in the game against the Demons, while Sam Lalor showed promise with some neat clearance work in the middle.

Richmond Tigers Team News

Richmond continue to prioritise development as they transition into a younger list profile.

Midfielder Josh Smillie is expected to miss the early rounds with a quad strain, opening opportunities for other young midfielders to take on greater responsibility around stoppage.

Noah Balta is expected to play a key role in defence alongside Ben Miller, while the Tigers’ midfield mix continues to evolve with emerging players rotating through centre bounces.

Their forward line remains mobile rather than key-position heavy, relying on pressure and ground-level speed to create scoring opportunities.

Richmond Tigers Team List

B: N.Balta, B.Miller, N.Broad

HB: S.Banks, S.Grlj, J.Short

C: H.Ralphsmith, S.Lalor, K.McAuliffe

HF: S.Campbell, M.Rioli, R.Mansell

F: J.Faull, T.Lynch, H.Armstrong

FOLL: T.Nankervis - C, T.Taranto, J.Ross

I/C: J.Trezise, J.Gibcus, J.Hopper, S.Green, C.Gray

EMG: T.Brown, L.Trainor, T.Sonsie

Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers AFL Round 1 FAQ’s

How to watch Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers AFL Round 1?

You can watch the Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers AFL Round 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers AFL Round 1?

To buy tickets to the Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers AFL Round 1 game check the AFL website or the official Carlton Blues or Richmond Tigers sites.

Verdict

Carlton Blues v Richmond Tigers

Blues bounce back with Walsh to find plenty of the footy, Taranto for Richmond amongst the disposals

Carlton Blues

Handicap -18.5

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