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Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Round 1 Tips - Hawks Tipped to Soar Higher than Bombers

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 12 Mar 2026 12:33

Ryan Tucker 12 Mar 2026

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The game will be played at MCG on Friday 13th March, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEDT)
Hawthorn Hawks predicted to win over Essendon Bombers in AFL 2026 Round 1.
Essendon in rebuilding phase, aiming for player development.
Key players: Mabior Chol (3+ goals), Jai Newcombe (25+ disposals).

Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks

Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 1 2026 - Expert Prediction

Hawthorn are big favourites but are tipped to cover the line and take their first win of the season against a rebuilding Essendon outfit.

Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 1 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis & Team News
Essendon Bombers Team News
Essendon Bombers Team List
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Team News
Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Hawthorn Hawks Team List
Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 1 FAQ’s

The Hawks took a surprise loss to GWS in Opening Round but commentators still have them in the top 8 power rankings. Hawthorn have shown over the past 2 seasons that they don’t need much to get started and when they have momentum, they can pile on points quickly.

For the Essendon Bombers, this season will be about building continuity and getting their young guns some game time. Even though the vocal and loyal fanbase have high expectations of the team reaching a play-in spot in the new AFL Finals Structure, there are many more teams that are trending up at a sharper rate.

Essendon still have a couple stars that are able to break a game open but they won’t be able to carry this team over 4 quarters week in, week out. What is likely to happen in this matchup is that things are kept tight early with momentum swings each way and then the Hawks run away with it at the end.

Look for Hawthorn to capitalise on Essendon turnovers and move the ball quickly through the middle of the G into scoring position.

Take Hawthorn to win and cover the large 29.5 pt line with the Game Total going Over 186.5 as is the trend with these two teams. Mabior Chol with 3+ goals and Jai Newcombe to rack up the disposals going 25+.

Hawthorn averaged 49.3 pts from Turnovers last season, 6th best in the AFL. Essendon allowed the 2nd most points to their opposition from Turnovers.
7 of the last 8 games between these teams have gone Over the Game Total.
Mabior Chol kicked 2 goals last weekend and also 2 in the corresponding game v Essendon last season. He is likely to have more opportunity against an understrength backline.
Jai Newcombe had 25 against Essendon last season and 25 last week v GWS.

Head to Head Stats

Hawthorn won the lone matchup between these teams last season 111-85 but Essendon had won 4 straight and 6 of the previous 7 dating back to the start of the 2019 season.

7 of the last 8 games have gone Over the Game Total including the last 4 straight. The winning team has covered the line in each of the last 8 games.

Essendon Bombers Form Analysis

Essendon are in rebuild mode. 6 wins and 17 losses last year was a tough slog and even though injuries were a large factor in their losing record, the club has lacked direction for a number of years.

Now it is very clear what they are trying to do. The Bombers have the second youngest list in the AFL and will be looking to get as many minutes as possible into their young guns to build them into competitive players in the coming years.

They are likely to be competitive for short stints this season but unlikely to be amassing a large number of wins.

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis

The Hawks were slow out of the box in their Opening Round loss to GWS at ENGIE Stadium allowing 5 straight goals in 8 minutes. Once they settled into the flow things were on more even terms and the Hawks even came home with a wet sail but to no avail.

Jai Newcombe and James Sicily were the top ball getters for the Hawks and Lloyd Meek had more hitouts than his opponent but there was just something missing for Hawthorn who should have put in a better performance against an injury ravaged opponent

Essendon Bombers Team News

A host of players are set to make their AFL debuts this week in the Bombers season opener. Dyson Sharp, Max Kondogiannis and Hussien El Achkar are all tipped to grab spots in the 23 man squad. Isaac Kako is a test and we will know more once teams are released.

Hawthorn Hawks Team News

Henry Hustwaite will miss a couple weeks after suffering a leg injury in Opening Round, Cam Mackenzie will need to pass a concussion test to be eligible to play. Injuries are playing a key part in Hawthorn's outlook this season.

Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks Team List

Essendon	POS	Hawthorn
J. Prior, B. McKay, Z. Reid	B	K. Amon, T. Barrass, J. Impey
A. Roberts, M. Redman, A. McGrath	HB	J. Battle, J. Sicily, B. Hardwick
X. Duursma, J. Caldwell, B. Fiorini	C	D. Moore, C. Mackenzie, M. D’Ambrosio
S. Durham, N. Caddy, A. Perkins	HF	S. Butler, M. Lewis, N. Watson
H. El Achkar, P. Wright, K. Langford	F	C. Macdonald, M. Chol, J. Gunston
L. Blakiston, D. Parish, Z. Merrett	FOLL	L. Meek, J. Newcombe, C. Nash
D. Sharp, A. May, M. Kondogiannis, Z. Johnson, J. Nguyen	I/C	J. Scrimshaw, J. Ginnivan, J. Ward, J. Weddle, N. Reeves

Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 1 FAQ’s

How to watch Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 1?

You can watch the Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 1?

To buy tickets to the Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 1 game check the AFL website or the official Essendon Bombers site.

Verdict

Essendon Bombers v Hawthorn Hawks

Hawthorn -29.5

Line

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