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AFL Round 1 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Jesse Mclure

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Last updated: Wed 11 Mar 2026 22:31

Jesse Mclure 11 Mar 2026

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Jesse from True Footy AFL Podcast picks every game of Round 1
Carlton seeks redemption against Richmond; strong midfield advantage.
Hawthorn's system may best Essendon despite tight midfield battle.
Geelong's home dominance could outmatch Fremantle's midfield strength.

Round 1 Tips From Jesse at True Footy

AFL Round 1 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions for Every Match

The 2026 AFL season truly begins in Round 1, when all 18 clubs take the field and the premiership race starts to reveal itself.

Opening Round provided a glimpse of form, but Round 1 is where the pressure builds. Rivalries return, contenders aim to assert themselves early, and rebuilding clubs look to create headlines.

From blockbuster matchups to potential surprises, here are Jesse’s tips and predicted margins for every AFL Round 1 game.

Carlton vs Richmond Prediction

Carlton enter the season determined to avoid a repeat of last year’s shock loss to Richmond. The Blues controlled long periods of that match but couldn’t convert their dominance on the scoreboard.

With Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh leading the midfield, Carlton should again control clearances and territory. Richmond still have experienced players like Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper around the ball, but the Tigers’ younger list may struggle to keep pace over four quarters.

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Essendon vs Hawthorn Prediction

Essendon’s midfield group of Darcy Parish, Jye Caldwell and Sam Durham is capable of winning plenty of the ball around stoppages.

However, Hawthorn’s system and ball movement remain a major strength. With players like Dylan Moore, Jai Newcombe and Jack Ginnivan capable of punishing turnovers, the Hawks appear better equipped to capitalise on scoring opportunities.

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Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants Prediction

This matchup shapes as one of the most entertaining contests of the round.

The Bulldogs boast one of the AFL’s strongest midfields with Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore and Adam Treloar capable of dominating stoppages. The Giants, however, remain dangerous in transition with Lachie Whitfield and Harry Perryman launching attacks, while Jesse Hogan provides a strong aerial presence forward.

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Geelong vs Fremantle Prediction

Geelong rarely drop consecutive matches, especially at GMHBA Stadium where they have long been dominant.

Fremantle’s midfield duo of Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw will test the Cats around stoppages, but Geelong’s experience and defensive structure led by Tom Stewart makes them extremely difficult to beat at home.

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Sydney vs Brisbane Prediction

This clash renews the rivalry between two recent premiership contenders and the 2024 Grand Final opponents.

Sydney’s transition game, driven by Errol Gulden and Chad Warner, is capable of punishing teams quickly. Brisbane still possess elite talent through Lachie Neale and the Ashcroft brothers, but several key outs may make the challenge tougher against a balanced Swans side at home.

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Collingwood vs Adelaide Prediction

Recent meetings between these clubs have been tight, and this contest looks no different.

Adelaide’s forward line featuring Taylor Walker, Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe can stretch defences. However, Collingwood’s structure remains difficult to break down, with Darcy Cameron providing intercept support and Nick Daicos driving ball movement.

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North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide Prediction

North Melbourne continue to build around a promising young midfield led by Luke Davies-Uniacke and Tom Powell, while Tristan Xerri should give them an edge in the ruck.

Port Adelaide, though, possess elite midfield talent through Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis. Their speed and class around stoppages could create the decisive scoring opportunities.

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Melbourne vs St Kilda Prediction

Melbourne begin a new era following the departures of Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver, though the Demons still have star power through Max Gawn and Kozzy Pickett.

St Kilda arrive with increased expectations after strengthening their list. With Jack Sinclair and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera providing drive from defence, the Saints should generate plenty of attacking opportunities.

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Gold Coast vs West Coast Prediction

Gold Coast enter the season with serious expectations following key list additions and a powerful midfield core.

Christian Petracca joins Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson to create one of the AFL’s strongest midfield groups. With Ben King providing a dominant target inside 50, the Suns should generate plenty of scoring opportunities against West Coast.

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