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Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints AFL Round 1 Tips - Saints Tipped to Rebound at the G

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Fri. 13 Mar. 2026 13:46

Ryan Tucker 13 Mar. 2026

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St Kilda Saints favored to win by a narrow 1-39 point margin.
Melbourne Demons face form challenges with new players emerging.
Key players: Mitch Owens for goals, Callum Wilkie for disposals.
The game will be played at MCG on Sunday, 15th March, with the bounce at 3:15 PM (AEDT)

Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints

Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints, Round 1 2026 - Expert Prediction

St Kilda are rightful favourites in this matchup and are tipped to win with a 1-39 pt margin at the MCG on Sunday afternoon.

Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints, Round 1 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Melbourne Demons Team News
St Kilda Saints Form Analysis
St Kilda Saints Team News
Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints Team List
Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2026 Round 1 FAQ’s

The Saints averaged just 48.2 Inside 50’s last season but already showed last week that they have a new gameplan, having 63 forward entries against the Magpies. Their efficiency let them down but they were a tick above the league average last season so that should average out over time.

Melbourne are at a crossroads, they still have quality players on their roster but they are no longer a superstar team. They are not in full rebuild mode (yet) so there are still expectations for them to win games. Opposition teams had high Disposal Efficiency rates against them last season and there is no reason to think that changes this year.

Look for St Kilda to continue with their new brand of footy, pushing the pace and the footy forward. The two pronged ruck will still likely struggle against Top 10 AFL Player Max Gawn but the midfield should dominate with Jack Sinclair leading the way on the ball.

Take St Kilda to win with a 1-39 margin and to get the first score on the board with their midfield dictating tempo. Mitch Owens will continue to benefit with a more attacking style of footy, grab him for 2+ goals and Callum Wilkie to back up his performance from last weekend going over 21.5 disposals.

7 of the 9 wins St Kilda had last season were by 1-39 margins. 13 of Melbourne’s 15 losses were also by the same margin.
St Kilda pushed hard early against the Pies last week kicking the first 2 scores of the game.
Mitch Owens had 4 shots on goal last week for 2 goals, he achieved that amount of shots in 7 games last season despite the restrictive gameplay.
Callum Wilkie had 26 touches last weekend with a 92.3% Efficiency rate.

Head to Head Stats

St Kilda won both matchups last season, the first by 28 pts and the second by 6 pts. Prior to that though Melbourne had won 5 straight. The winning team has covered the line in 9 straight matchups.

The Under has hit on the Game Total in 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Melbourne Demons Form Analysis

The Demons head into 2026 with a bunch of unknowns, their premiership core that peaked in 2021 has splintered. Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver are gone. A new coach takes control of a list that still has elite pillars in Max Gawn and defence, but far less certainty through the middle.

There is opportunity for new players to make a name for themselves which should show up in effort plays but the question will still remain whether the talent is there across the board to see them contest for a finals spot.

Melbourne Demons Team News

Bayley Fritsch has been named despite an unusual dog-bite injury, while Jai Culley is in line for his club debut.

St Kilda Saints Form Analysis

St Kilda had a lot of expectation heading into the 2026 season, they were widely tipped to make the top 8 and were high in the 2026 AFL Premiership Odds rankings. Their Opening Round opponents Collingwood were tipped to not make the 8 and St Kilda were big favourites.

But as St Kilda do, they lost the game 78-66. Poor decision making and inefficiency with ball in hand undid the young Saints. They managed just 38.1% Efficiency Inside 50, a lot lower than their opponent at 52.5%.

There were some bright spots though, with a clear difference in the attacking style of a team renowned for their defensive pressure. They had 63 forward entries and all the stars were around the ball when it mattered.

St Kilda Saints Team News

Rowan Marshall is ruled out under concussion protocols, with Liam Stocker, Isaac Keeler and others added to the squad.

Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints Team List

Melbourne	POS	St Kilda
H. Petty, J. Lever, B. Howes	B	J. Silvagni, C. Wilkie, A. Caminiti
C. Jiath, D. Turner, C. Salem	HB	A. Tauru, B. Hill, N. Wanganeen-Milera
X. Lindsay, J. Steele, E. Langdon	C	M. Windhager, M. Hall, D. Wilson
K. Pickett, J. van Rooyen, T. Sparrow	HF	M. Phillipou, H. Boxshall, M. Owens
B. Fritsch, B. Mihocek, K. Chandler	F	L. Ryan, C. Sharman, J. Higgins
M. Gawn, C. Windsor, H. Langford	FOLL	T. De Koning, S. Flanders, J. Sinclair
K. Tholstrup, J. Culley, J. Melksham, T. Rivers, T. McDonald, M. Heath, H. Sharp, L. Pickett	I/C	J. Macrae, L. Stocker, I. Keeler, J. Carroll, A. Dodson, M. Wood, H. Garcia, C. Banfield

Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2026 Round 1 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2026 Round 1?

You can watch the Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2026 Round 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2026 Round 1?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2026 Round 1 game check the AFL website or the official Melbourne Demons site.

Verdict

Melbourne Demons v St Kilda Saints

St Kilda 1-39

Winning Margin

$2.10 - 2 Units

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St Kilda

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$1.75 - 3 Units

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M Owens 2+

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Disposals

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